Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[BuckeyeNut]

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

Big "Anybody who thinks Nina Turner would win this doesnt understand Ohio politics" energy

I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s certainly got her work cut out for her, that’s for sure.  

On a different note, apparently Emilia Sykes is taking a pretty hard look at running here.  If she does, then the Akron Democratic machine will go all-in for her and she’s probably got the Akron portion of the district locked down.

I wouldn't bet on Sykes running. (Although I wouldn't completely rule it out, either.) She has her eyes on a bigger prize, and if she did win, she would be in trouble quickly. OH-11 is all but guaranteed to recede into Cuyahoga County entirely come redistricting, meaning Sykes would have to move and lose her core primary voting base in the process.

[lfromnj]

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

Big "Anybody who thinks Nina Turner would win this doesnt understand Ohio politics" energy

I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s certainly got her work cut out for her, that’s for sure.  

On a different note, apparently Emilia Sykes is taking a pretty hard look at running here.  If she does, then the Akron Democratic machine will go all-in for her and she’s probably got the Akron portion of the district locked down.

I wouldn't bet on Sykes running. (Although I wouldn't completely rule it out, either.) She has her eyes on a bigger prize, and if she did win, she would be in trouble quickly. OH-11 is all but guaranteed to recede into Cuyahoga County entirely come redistricting, meaning Sykes would have to move and lose her core primary voting base in the process.

What's a bigger prize?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Why would anyone even want this seat, it is 100% going to be redistricting into oblivion.
If the OH-GOP is smart they would break this and the Youngstown seat up while making a Cincinnati Dem pack. The map would look very nice (won’t prompt backlash) and would still be a pretty safe way to net a seat.

I'm pretty sure this is a VRA seat.

Correct. It needs to elect someone black, but does not need to be maj-black.

[lfromnj]

Why would anyone even want this seat, it is 100% going to be redistricting into oblivion.
If the OH-GOP is smart they would break this and the Youngstown seat up while making a Cincinnati Dem pack. The map would look very nice (won’t prompt backlash) and would still be a pretty safe way to net a seat.

I'm pretty sure this is a VRA seat.

Correct. It needs to elect someone black, but does not need to be maj-black.

No it can elect a white person too just like Cohen and Gary Peters.

[BuckeyeNut]

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

Big "Anybody who thinks Nina Turner would win this doesnt understand Ohio politics" energy

I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s certainly got her work cut out for her, that’s for sure.  

On a different note, apparently Emilia Sykes is taking a pretty hard look at running here.  If she does, then the Akron Democratic machine will go all-in for her and she’s probably got the Akron portion of the district locked down.

I wouldn't bet on Sykes running. (Although I wouldn't completely rule it out, either.) She has her eyes on a bigger prize, and if she did win, she would be in trouble quickly. OH-11 is all but guaranteed to recede into Cuyahoga County entirely come redistricting, meaning Sykes would have to move and lose her core primary voting base in the process.

What's a bigger prize?

Governor, someday. Sykes might take a detour to Congress, but it would make sense to hold out for the lines to be redrawn if she does. It is moderately likely there will be a Summit County-based U.S. House seat in 2022, and there hasn't really one of those since the 1990s.

[lfromnj]

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

Big "Anybody who thinks Nina Turner would win this doesnt understand Ohio politics" energy

I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s certainly got her work cut out for her, that’s for sure.  

On a different note, apparently Emilia Sykes is taking a pretty hard look at running here.  If she does, then the Akron Democratic machine will go all-in for her and she’s probably got the Akron portion of the district locked down.

I wouldn't bet on Sykes running. (Although I wouldn't completely rule it out, either.) She has her eyes on a bigger prize, and if she did win, she would be in trouble quickly. OH-11 is all but guaranteed to recede into Cuyahoga County entirely come redistricting, meaning Sykes would have to move and lose her core primary voting base in the process.

What's a bigger prize?

Governor, someday. Sykes might take a detour to Congress, but it would make sense to hold out for the lines to be redrawn if she does. It is moderately likely there will be a Summit County-based U.S. House seat in 2022, and there hasn't really one of those since the 1990s.

Said house seat can also be Safe R

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

Big "Anybody who thinks Nina Turner would win this doesnt understand Ohio politics" energy

I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s certainly got her work cut out for her, that’s for sure.  

On a different note, apparently Emilia Sykes is taking a pretty hard look at running here.  If she does, then the Akron Democratic machine will go all-in for her and she’s probably got the Akron portion of the district locked down.

I wouldn't bet on Sykes running. (Although I wouldn't completely rule it out, either.) She has her eyes on a bigger prize, and if she did win, she would be in trouble quickly. OH-11 is all but guaranteed to recede into Cuyahoga County entirely come redistricting, meaning Sykes would have to move and lose her core primary voting base in the process.

What's a bigger prize?

Governor, someday. Sykes might take a detour to Congress, but it would make sense to hold out for the lines to be redrawn if she does. It is moderately likely there will be a Summit County-based U.S. House seat in 2022, and there hasn't really one of those since the 1990s.

Sykes has no chance at Governor

[BuckeyeNut]

Said house seat can also be Safe R

That's doubtful. It would be tough to split Summit County twice and have both seats be safe for Republicans.

This is already becoming one of my favourite threads on Atlas.

A bunch of people acting like they're experts in the OH-11 district saying she wont be competitive in the first couple pages, then she breaks a fundraising record and pulls in a slew of endorsements almost instantly.

chef's kiss.

She’s gonna lose, but whatever helps you sleep at night

Big "Anybody who thinks Nina Turner would win this doesnt understand Ohio politics" energy

I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s certainly got her work cut out for her, that’s for sure.  

On a different note, apparently Emilia Sykes is taking a pretty hard look at running here.  If she does, then the Akron Democratic machine will go all-in for her and she’s probably got the Akron portion of the district locked down.

I wouldn't bet on Sykes running. (Although I wouldn't completely rule it out, either.) She has her eyes on a bigger prize, and if she did win, she would be in trouble quickly. OH-11 is all but guaranteed to recede into Cuyahoga County entirely come redistricting, meaning Sykes would have to move and lose her core primary voting base in the process.

What's a bigger prize?

Governor, someday. Sykes might take a detour to Congress, but it would make sense to hold out for the lines to be redrawn if she does. It is moderately likely there will be a Summit County-based U.S. House seat in 2022, and there hasn't really one of those since the 1990s.

Sykes has no chance at Governor

Not saying she's likely to win, but it's what she wants most. Sykes styles herself the next Stacey Abrams for a reason.

[W]

This is gonna be a very low turnout election, and Turner has a massive cash advantage. It's her game to lose, which is certainly still a big possibility.

This isn't gonna be a Cenk Uygur. For those babbling about the "city political machine being against her," I congratulate Lacy Clay for winning his 11th term in office.

[Suburbia]

Nina Turner's son is a police officer, and her husband is a retired police officer.

Will that disqualify her?

She'll be seen as part of the corrupt system. Once you are a part of the "family", you are complicit.

The Democratic Party has a strain of anti-police sentiment baked in with the leftwing movements.

https://www.democracynow.org/2016/7/18/my_heart_aches_sen_nina_turner

[brucejoel99]

Nina Turner's son is a police officer, and her husband is a retired police officer.

Will that disqualify her?

She'll be seen as part of the corrupt system. Once you are a part of the "family", you are complicit.

The Democratic Party has a strain of anti-police sentiment baked in with the leftwing movements.

https://www.democracynow.org/2016/7/18/my_heart_aches_sen_nina_turner

bronz, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I've ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent statement were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this forum is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, & may God have mercy on your soul.

[NewYorkExpress]

Nina Turner's son is a police officer, and her husband is a retired police officer.

Will that disqualify her?

She'll be seen as part of the corrupt system. Once you are a part of the "family", you are complicit.

The Democratic Party has a strain of anti-police sentiment baked in with the leftwing movements.

https://www.democracynow.org/2016/7/18/my_heart_aches_sen_nina_turner

Unless Nina Turner herself is a police officer, this isn't an issue.

Val Demings on the other hand, could be in trouble in a primary for that reason.

[Hope For A New Era]

Nina Turner in........literally hundreds of Republican ads. Nice job, genius.

[Suburbia]

Nina Turner's son is a police officer, and her husband is a retired police officer.

Will that disqualify her?

She'll be seen as part of the corrupt system. Once you are a part of the "family", you are complicit.

The Democratic Party has a strain of anti-police sentiment baked in with the leftwing movements.

https://www.democracynow.org/2016/7/18/my_heart_aches_sen_nina_turner

bronz, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I've ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent statement were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this forum is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, & may God have mercy on your soul.

It's not dumb what I said, it is the truth. When people find out that she is connected to cops, she could lose her leftwing base.

[brucejoel99]

Nina Turner's son is a police officer, and her husband is a retired police officer.

Will that disqualify her?

She'll be seen as part of the corrupt system. Once you are a part of the "family", you are complicit.

The Democratic Party has a strain of anti-police sentiment baked in with the leftwing movements.

https://www.democracynow.org/2016/7/18/my_heart_aches_sen_nina_turner

bronz, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I've ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent statement were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this forum is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, & may God have mercy on your soul.

It's not dumb what I said, it is the truth. When people find out that she is connected to cops, she could lose her leftwing base.

No, caricaturing the left as a group that will cancel somebody because their relatives are police officers is indeed dumb.

[Gracile]

Turner raised $630K by the end of last year-

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1345832987338960898

[Stuart98]

Nina Turner in........literally hundreds of Republican ads. Nice job, genius.

This seat is D+ a bajillion, not an issue. If you're talking about being mentioned in other races nationally, I doubt it; she's hardly a known figure outside of progressive circles and there's limited mileage you can get by tying house members to some backbencher from their caucus.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nina Turner in........literally hundreds of Republican ads. Nice job, genius.

This seat is D+ a bajillion, not an issue. If you're talking about being mentioned in other races nationally, I doubt it; she's hardly a known figure outside of progressive circles and there's limited mileage you can get by tying house members to some backbencher from their caucus.

The establishment always needs a scapegoat when crappy candidates like Shalala lose.

[brucejoel99]

Turner raised $630K by the end of last year-

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1345832987338960898

Will be interesting to see if raising this much so quickly ends up discouraging any potential challengers from jumping in.

[Catalunya]

If Nina Turner wins this she will probably be Kamala’s main challenger in 2024.

[Stuart98]

If Nina Turner wins this she will probably be Kamala’s main challenger in 2024.

If Nina Turner is Kamala's main challenger then we'll have a primary that looks a lot like 2000.

[Gracile]

Turner raised $630K by the end of last year-

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1345832987338960898

Will be interesting to see if raising this much so quickly ends up discouraging any potential challengers from jumping in.

Possibly. The early Sanders endorsement was probably also critical in getting other potential left-wing candidates to stay out.

[Dipper Josh]

Turner raised $630K by the end of last year-

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1345832987338960898

Will be interesting to see if raising this much so quickly ends up discouraging any potential challengers from jumping in.

Possibly. The early Sanders endorsement was probably also critical in getting other potential left-wing candidates to stay out.

Folks, I know this forum severely underestimates the political savvyness of left wingers but come on. There's no way Nina Turner is dumb enough to punt away a safe house seat just so she can be the sacrificial lamb we put up in 2024.

We need somebody who doesn't have something to lose, Ben Jealous maybe?

[Gracile]

Turner raised $630K by the end of last year-

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1345832987338960898

Will be interesting to see if raising this much so quickly ends up discouraging any potential challengers from jumping in.

Possibly. The early Sanders endorsement was probably also critical in getting other potential left-wing candidates to stay out.

Folks, I know this forum severely underestimates the political savvyness of left wingers but come on. There's no way Nina Turner is dumb enough to punt away a safe house seat just so she can be the sacrificial lamb we put up in 2024.

We need somebody who doesn't have something to lose, Ben Jealous maybe?

I am a left-winger, and I don't appreciate how you directed an entire rant at something I didn't say which should have been directed at someone else in this thread. Do better.

[brucejoel99]

Folks, I know this forum severely underestimates the political savvyness of left wingers but come on. There's no way Nina Turner is dumb enough to punt away a safe house seat just so she can be the sacrificial lamb we put up in 2024.

Well, candidates have done so before (e.g., Tulsi Gabbard & John Delaney this cycle), so it's not exactly out of the question, but if her presidential primary chances against Kamala aren't looking so hot (as they presumably won't), then she'd probably just pull a Booker/Inslee/Ryan/Swalwell/Moulton/Rubio/Paul & jump back into her incumbent race before the filing deadline.