GA-data progress- Perdue +2, Warnock + 3
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  GA-data progress- Perdue +2, Warnock + 3
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Author Topic: GA-data progress- Perdue +2, Warnock + 3  (Read 2006 times)
Matty
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« on: December 07, 2020, 05:39:36 PM »

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WD
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2020, 05:40:38 PM »

#CandidateQualityMatters
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VAR
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2020, 05:43:37 PM »

Ossoff/Perdue are doing better among Democrats/Republicans than Warnock/Loeffler. Loeffler leads by 1% among independents, Perdue leads by 15%. Simply put, NUT.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2020, 05:44:05 PM »

lol

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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #4 on: December 07, 2020, 06:18:28 PM »

The way I interpret this is that 2% of the 50% who support Warnock are reluctant to say that they will vote for Ossoff, and they like to say they are "undecided" because that makes them feel all "independent," "open minded," and important, but in reality they will vote for Ossoff in the end.

Likewise, 3% of the 50% who support Perdue are reluctant to say that they will vote for Loeffler, and they like to say they are "undecided" because that makes them feel all "independent," "open minded," and important, but in reality they will vote for Loeffler in the end.

Once you account for this, that makes both races 50-50, and you don't have some ridiculous split between the two races, they both end up pretty much the same regardless of supposed "candidate quality."
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2020, 06:20:23 PM »

>Nov 15 to 20, junk it
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2020, 06:33:57 PM »

The way I interpret this is that 2% of the 50% who support Warnock are reluctant to say that they will vote for Ossoff, and they like to say they are "undecided" because that makes them feel all "independent," "open minded," and important, but in reality they will vote for Ossoff in the end.

I hope you're right. I have no idea why a significant number of people would vote Perdue-Warnock (or Ossoff-Loeffler for that matter).
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LostFellow
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« Reply #7 on: December 07, 2020, 07:31:41 PM »

This poll actually worries me since the party split is marginally in favor of Democrats here, compared to 34-38 D-R in the presidential election. On this note, Biden won Independents 53-44 in Georgia according to the exit polls, and this poll only has Warnock leading by 1 and Ossoff down 15 (!) with independents. Data For Progress has always been a very solid poll with crosstabs that make sense, so polling not showing a large lead with independents is concerning.

Obviously there is the caveat that modeling the turnout for this election is very hard and that perhaps there have been changes with party identification, but I'd feel much more at ease with a poll showing clear leads with independents for Ossoff/Warnock.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: December 07, 2020, 08:33:49 PM »

The poll is definitely within margin of error, Rs are favored to win 1 of these races, but D's sweeping both will be an upset and can happen
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #9 on: December 07, 2020, 09:09:20 PM »

I just can't take any poll for an election being held like this seriously. Both remain tossups and will be that way until January 5.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #10 on: December 07, 2020, 10:05:07 PM »

Polling conducted from Nov. 15th-20th, so not sure why they're only releasing it now. Kinda out-of-date at this point.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2020, 06:12:36 AM »

Well that would certainly be a disaster if Perdue was winning Independents by 15.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2020, 09:26:43 AM »

Well that would certainly be a disaster if Perdue was winning Independents by 15.

Rs are expected to win at least 1 of these races, but it's a VBM Election abd not same day voting and due to increased minority turnout, D's are gonna sweep both races.

As WC usually vote same day but due to failed 1200  bucks and Trump is gonna lose his claim to Prez, on 12/15 when Electors certifies Biden as Prez, moderates are gonna go D
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UWS
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« Reply #13 on: December 08, 2020, 06:02:34 PM »

If Ossof can't even lead in a progressive pollster, he's cooked.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: December 08, 2020, 08:56:26 PM »

If Ossof can't even lead in a progressive pollster, he's cooked.

This was polled on Nov 20th
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