Describe a Goldwater-Humphrey Voter

[E-Dawg]

This might be the single most unlikely voting switch post WII. I'll give the only idea I can come up with:
A voter who was economically very liberal, but was also very socially conservative and pro-segregation. He was a lifelong Democrat before the 1964 election, but he was so strongly opposed to the Civil Rights Act that he put that issue above his economic interests and reluctantly voted for Goldwater. In 1968 his preferred candidate was Wallace, but he lived in a hotly contested state that Wallace had no chance of winning. Because he knew Wallace would not carry his state, he decided that he would instead vote for  Humphrey as a lesser evil vote. Despite his strong disagreement with Humphrey on desegregation, he saw no particular difference between him and Nixon on the issue. So he decided to reluctantly vote for Humphrey for economic reasons.

Does anyone have any evidence of a voter fitting that description existing anywhere? It honestly does not seem too implausible to me, the motivation fully makes sense.

[H. Ross Peron]

Minnesota Republican who liked Humphrey after meeting having met him on campaign?

[darklordoftech]

Segregationist marijuana smoker.

[TDAS04]

Some 21-year-old guy attracted to Goldwater’s message of liberty and individualism, but realized a few years later that conservatism didn’t really appeal to him at all, and that civil rights was the most important issue to him.

I could actually see my younger self with this thought pattern as I matured.

[Podgy the Bear]

Could have been Goldwater Girl Hillary Clinton--but she was too young to vote in 1964.

[E-Dawg]

Could have been Goldwater Girl Hillary Clinton--but she was too young to vote in 1964.

Yeah, but she had a clear change in political views during that time, Im looking for an example where the voter's views barely changed, such as mine.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Could have been Goldwater Girl Hillary Clinton--but she was too young to vote in 1964.

Yeah, but she had a clear change in political views during that time, Im looking for an example where the voter's views barely changed, such as mine.

I do think it's the hardest one to do without counting people who simply changed their politics. Goldwater was very conservative, while Humphrey was pretty solidly liberal. There are counties in the South that voted this way, but it was because of the VRA enfranchising blacks. I haven't heard of any counties in the North voting like this or even counties where Humphrey did better than Johnson, though maybe there are some.

How about someone who soured on the Vietnam War and didn't really see major differences between Nixon and Humphrey on domestic issues?

[E-Dawg]

Could have been Goldwater Girl Hillary Clinton--but she was too young to vote in 1964.

Yeah, but she had a clear change in political views during that time, Im looking for an example where the voter's views barely changed, such as mine.

I do think it's the hardest one to do without counting people who simply changed their politics. Goldwater was very conservative, while Humphrey was pretty solidly liberal. There are counties in the South that voted this way, but it was because of the VRA enfranchising blacks. I haven't heard of any counties in the North voting like this or even counties where Humphrey did better than Johnson, though maybe there are some.

How about someone who soured on the Vietnam War and didn't really see major differences between Nixon and Humphrey on domestic issues?

I think the idea I gave of the fiscally liberal segregationist is one that makes sense, and I am curious if there is any evidence of that type of voting existing.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Could have been Goldwater Girl Hillary Clinton--but she was too young to vote in 1964.

Yeah, but she had a clear change in political views during that time, Im looking for an example where the voter's views barely changed, such as mine.

I do think it's the hardest one to do without counting people who simply changed their politics. Goldwater was very conservative, while Humphrey was pretty solidly liberal. There are counties in the South that voted this way, but it was because of the VRA enfranchising blacks. I haven't heard of any counties in the North voting like this or even counties where Humphrey did better than Johnson, though maybe there are some.

How about someone who soured on the Vietnam War and didn't really see major differences between Nixon and Humphrey on domestic issues?

I think the idea I gave of the fiscally liberal segregationist is one that makes sense, and I am curious if there is any evidence of that type of voting existing.

Well if you're saying someone who wanted to vote Wallace but didn't because he had no chance of carrying their state, that would most likely mean a northern state. I find it hard to believe someone who lived in the North would feel so strongly about segregation that they would overlook Goldwater's economic views. However, there are some southern states Wallace had no chance of carrying like Texas and Virginia (Florida also looks like a longshot) so your hypothetical voter might be there.

[E-Dawg]

Could have been Goldwater Girl Hillary Clinton--but she was too young to vote in 1964.

Yeah, but she had a clear change in political views during that time, Im looking for an example where the voter's views barely changed, such as mine.

I do think it's the hardest one to do without counting people who simply changed their politics. Goldwater was very conservative, while Humphrey was pretty solidly liberal. There are counties in the South that voted this way, but it was because of the VRA enfranchising blacks. I haven't heard of any counties in the North voting like this or even counties where Humphrey did better than Johnson, though maybe there are some.

How about someone who soured on the Vietnam War and didn't really see major differences between Nixon and Humphrey on domestic issues?

I think the idea I gave of the fiscally liberal segregationist is one that makes sense, and I am curious if there is any evidence of that type of voting existing.

Well if you're saying someone who wanted to vote Wallace but didn't because he had no chance of carrying their state, that would most likely mean a northern state. I find it hard to believe someone who lived in the North would feel so strongly about segregation that they would overlook Goldwater's economic views. However, there are some southern states Wallace had no chance of carrying like Texas and Virginia (Florida also looks like a longshot) so your hypothetical voter might be there.

I was thinking that a person fitting my description would be either a Southern transplant living in a swing state, or a Texan.

[Brother Jonathan]

Maybe a Taft style Old Right Republican with a strong isolationist streak who strongly supported Goldwater's domestic policies but was always somewhat concerned by his foreign policy rhetoric. Didn't like Nixon and thought Humphrey would do more to end the war and reduce US commitment abroad, and did not see much difference between them on economic policy so he went with the "lesser of two evils" and voted Humphrey (with the added hope that it would punish the GOP for nominating a candidate like Nixon). So sort of a more pragmatic version of Russell Kirk in some sense, perhaps?

I could also see maybe a regional impact, so maybe it was a voter in one of the Dakotas or Minnesota.

It would be odd, given the focus on Goldwater's foreign policy statements in the campaign, for this voter to have gone for Goldwater in the end, but maybe they just really disliked the New Deal enough to hold their nose/they knew Goldwater wouldn't win so they weren't worried.

[SingingAnalyst]

All of the above sound plausible, but none could describe very many people. I doubt that more than 2-3% of those who voted in both 1964 and 1968 fit this description. (By comparison, I'd estimate about 4-5% of those who voted in both 1968 and 1972 were Nixon-McGovern voters). One thing that makes it hard is that, outside of the Black belt counties in the Deep South in which Blacks were denied the right to vote in 1964, it is hard to find places where Humphrey didn't drop at least 10% from Johnson: Minnesota (9.8%) and DC (3.7%) are the only places I can think of, as well as Detroit (8.6%); these latter two underwent significant demographic changes from 1964-1968. I suspect the same is true for Cambridge, MA (7.8%); most of these places didn't have many Goldwater voters anyway.

I think it was mostly just people who changed their politics or who personally disliked Johnson or Nixon.

The least likely places to find such voters? I'd say AR-KY-NC-TN, all of which saw at least 26-point drops in Dem support from 1964 to 1968.

[Alcibiades]

An 18 year old (Kentucky and Georgia had a voting age of 18 in 1964) with conservative parents who followed their lead in 1964, but became liberal in college and voted for Humphrey as a 22 year old in 1968.

[Sailor Haumea]

"Moderate" Southern white voter who opposed the Civil Rights Act but supported the Voting Rights Act.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Southern white that didn't like the idea of Wallace running separately from the main party.

[Geoffrey Howe]

This might be the single most unlikely voting switch post WII. I'll give the only idea I can come up with:
A voter who was economically very liberal, but was also very socially conservative and pro-segregation. He was a lifelong Democrat before the 1964 election, but he was so strongly opposed to the Civil Rights Act that he put that issue above his economic interests and reluctantly voted for Goldwater. In 1968 his preferred candidate was Wallace, but he lived in a hotly contested state that Wallace had no chance of winning. Because he knew Wallace would not carry his state, he decided that he would instead vote for  Humphrey as a lesser evil vote. Despite his strong disagreement with Humphrey on desegregation, he saw no particular difference between him and Nixon on the issue. So he decided to reluctantly vote for Humphrey for economic reasons.

Does anyone have any evidence of a voter fitting that description existing anywhere? It honestly does not seem too implausible to me, the motivation fully makes sense.

Maybe Potter Stewart of the Supreme Court. He was a moderate Republican (probably wouldn't be a Republican now) who hated Richard Nixon and was opposed to the Vietnam War, so voted McGovern, but didn't want an LBJ landslide so he voted Goldwater.

[Blair]

Hillary Clinton?

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Hillary Clinton?

She was only 17 in 1964.