The Reverse Gerrymandering Project

[OBD]

I'll be giving this a little revival shortly, starting over from scratch with some new context on redistricting this cycle (with new populations, election numbers, and actual gerrymandering action since last update). I will try to go in order of poll closing to simulate the feel of an election night.

[OBD]

Indiana and Kentucky


We (re)start our journey with two Midwestern states, both of which have redistricting under Democratic control. In Indiana, Democrats exhibit some restraint, with changes centering on the swingy 5th District, which trades in redder rurals for a greater share of suburban Indianapolis. However, they maintain the basic structures of the remaining seats, which change little in partisanship. In Kentucky, though, Democrats are more aggressive, making a grab for a seat with the shoestring 6th District - running up and down the Interstate from the Cincy suburbs to Berea to make a swing seat out of increasingly favorable areas.

IN-1: Frank Mrvan's seat moves marginally left, retaining its character as a historically blue Northwest Indiana-based seat with unfavorable trends for the Democrats. With Biden struggling and Republicans surging across the nation, this seat becomes a target for the RNC. Downballot Democratic strength saves Mrvan, though, who wins by a reduced 51-47 margin.

IN-5: Freshman Rep. Victoria Spartz is placed in a D-trending seat that already voted for Biden by 5 points in 2020 - a roughly 8-point swing left from the previous district. In 2022, though, Spartz slightly overperforms the district's partisan baseline once again - which is enough to win re-election 51-47 (though her prospects in 2024 aren't rosy).

KY-6: This heavily revamped 'I-75 seat' unites the D-trending areas of Lexington and Kenton/Campbell counties, with the aim of knocking out incumbent Republican Andy Barr. It moved from Trump+16 to Trump+8 in 2016, and was likely nearly even in 2020. However, in 2022, it remains fool's gold for Kentucky Democrats. Barr wins re-election 55-42, comfortably beating back a triaged opponent.

Seats
Republicans 12 seats (--)
Democrats 3 seats (--)

[OBD]

New Hampshire (+ Vermont)


Boring update today. Vermont does not have congressional redistricting, while in New Hampshire, Democrats pass a least-change map. As they hold both Granite State seats, there is no way to strengthen one incumbent without weakening the other - so, NH Dems go for a least-change map, allowing Representatives Kuster and Pappas to run in as familiar territory as possible. There are no notable changes in partisanship.

Democrats naturally hold VT-AL.

NH-01: In 2020, Representative Chris Pappas became the first NH-01 representative since Carol Shea-Porter in 2008 to win election to two consecutive terms. However, with Republicans surging nationwide in 2022, he becomes a top target of the RNC. Pappas puts up a good fight in one of the nation's marquee races, but ultimately goes down 50-46 to a well-funded Republican opponent.

NH-02: Despite being the safer of the two NH Dem representatives with a decade of tenure, Rep. Ann McLane Kuster nevertheless faces a competitive re-election race. The race receives less attention than the neighboring 1st District contest - ironically, though, Kuster emerged victorious by a smaller margin, winning 50-47 in the narrowest win of her congressional career.

Seats
Republicans 13 seats (+1)
Democrats 5 seats (-1)

[OBD]

Virginia


In Virginia, where the independent commission broke down, redistricting was decided by the state Supreme Court's Democratic minority. The resulting map was, thus, very favorable to Democrats. Changes centered in north and central Virginia, with a fourth seat created in NoVA, the Richmond suburbs being redivided between the 1st and 5th districts, and the 2nd district taking in all of Norfolk. Consequently, Virginia becomes one of few large states to retain roughly the same congressional delegation in the aftermath of reverse gerrymandering.

VA-01: The new 1st district switches out portions of the DC suburbs with portions of the Richmond suburbs, consequently moving rightwards by around 4 points with 2020 numbers to Trump+8. Despite the somewhat competitive margin on paper, incumbent Rob Wittman, a serial overperformer, easily cruises to re-election, winning 58-39.

VA-02: Rep. Elaine Luria becomes a major winner of redistricting, getting a Biden+16.5 seat including all of her hometown of Norfolk while shedding redder Chesapeake. While the GOP takes an early look at the reconfigured 2nd, they ultimately redirect resources to juicier pickup opportunities (as well as defending newly vulnerable seats in red states), allowing Luria to cruise to a 53-44 win.

VA-05: With the 5th District losing the Democratic bastion of Charlottesville, any miniscule chances for incumbent Rep. Bob Good to lose in 2022 went out the window. While he underperforms slightly, he still smashes a token challenger 59-38.

VA-07: With her home drawn into Wittman's Republican district, Rep. Abigail Spanberger carpetbags to this PWC-based district despite having represented none of the district before (while some fragments of her old seat were drawn into the 10th district, she chose to avoid an incumbent v. incumbent primary with Rep. Wexton). Unfortunately for the moderate Democrat, she gets crushed in the primary by local representative and former Lt. Gov candidate Hala Ayala, who cruises to victory in the general election.

VA-10: Uniting the Democratic strongholds of Loudoun County and Charlottesville, the GOP's prospects in unseating incumbent Jennifer Wexton in the Biden+17 10th district were dim to start. A Republican national environment increased these prospects slightly, but with the RNC triaging this race early the seat quickly slid back into Safe D territory. On Election Night, Wexton cruised to re-election 55-43.

Seats
Republicans 17 seats (+1)
Democrats 12 seats (-1)

[OBD]

Georgia and South Carolina


In these neighboring Southern states, redistricting control returns to Democrats for the first time in decades - and both state parties decide to take full advantage of this golden opportunity, drawing fairly aggressive lines. In Georgia, a fifth black majority seat is created, while all four Atlanta-area VRA districts expand outward, leaving increasingly blue white suburban areas to 'sink' deep-red rurals. This move allows Democrats to draw an additional suburban seat for themselves, in addition to an Athens-Savannah snake. In South Carolina, Democrats reconfigure the Charleston seat in their favor, add a new opportunity seat stretching from Columbia to the Charlotte suburbs, and draw a slightly more favorable seat in the northwest of the state. Both of these maps are nasty for the area's many Republican incumbents, resulting in many member vs. member contests.

GA-01: This radically reconfigured seat runs from Athens to Hinesville through Augusta and Savannah, packing Democratic strength along Georgia's eastern border to create a safely blue seat. Biden won here by over 26 points, while Clinton won by a hair under 24 points. A black Democratic state legislator runs here, and easily picks up the seat (with local incumbents Carter and Allen scared off by the seat's decisive Democratic lean).

GA-02: Rep. Sanford Bishop's seat exchanges its red southern portion for (slightly less) red Houston County and swingy Milledgeville, moving slightly leftward accordingly. The popular longtime Representative cruises to re-election against token Republican opposition, winning 57-42.

GA-03: The Atlanta area's newly-created fourth black VRA seat, this district is vastly different from its predecessor in both territory and partisanship. The 3rd was Biden+17.5 and Clinton+14 - very Democratic, but moving leftward at a slower pace then the rest of the Atlanta area. Incumbent Drew Ferguson does not run here, and a Democrat wins the open seat 55-44.

GA-04/05/13: Incumbents Hank Johnson, Nikema Williams, and David Scott run, and easily win in these deep blue districts. The 5th District's erose boundaries are an attempt to preserve Williams's Atlanta base as much as possible, while also using the seat to sink Republican areas.

GA-06: The 6th District becomes the entirety of Cobb County, a former Republican bastion that turned blue under Trump. Rep. Lucy McBath, in an unexpected decision, opts to run in the neighboring 11th rather than her home seat, leaving this race open and closely contested. While Democrats initially have an edge, they are challenged by Republican snapback in wealthy suburbs, and win by a narrower-than expected 51-47 margin.

GA-07: Rep. Carolyn Bordeaux gets a district that, by exchanging blood-red Forsyth with portions of deep-blue DeKalb, is significantly more Democratic (moving from Biden+6 to Clinton+6/Biden+18) and diverse. While there were rumors of a serious primary challenge to the Blue Dog incumbent, this ultimately failed to materialize, and Bordeaux cruised to re-election 54-44.

GA-08/09/10: Republican incumbents Austin Scott, Barry Loudermilk, and Buddy Carter cruise to re-election in these safely Republican seats, while also escaping the dreaded incumbent v. incumbent primary.

GA-11: Consisting of north Fulton and DeKalb counties (as well as a sliver of Forsyth), this new district is solidly blue with strongly favorable trends (Clinton+10.9 to Biden+22). Lucy McBath, who represents a significant portion of this seat, runs for re-election here, defeating a token Republican 57-41.

GA-12: The first of two dramatic two-incumbent primaries in Georgia, Rep. Rick Allen faces Rep. Andrew Clyde. While Allen represented the 12th prior to redistricting, the only portion of his base in the seat is some of suburban Augusta, while Clyde's Gainesville base is mostly intact. Additionally, Clyde, one of the furthest right Republicans in the House, was backed by Trump. While Allen, rather conservative himself, was able to gain some traction (touting his seniority and ability to pass 'the America First agenda'), Clyde defeats him 59-41 in the primary, and wins the general with ease.

GA-14: Left politically homeless with his 3rd district largely split among safely Democratic black VRA seats, GOP Deputy Whip Rep. Drew Ferguson mounts a high-profile challenge to Marjorie Taylor Greene. With the infamous Greene already representing 70% of the new 14th (as opposed to Ferguson representing just 30,000 constituents in the new seat), Ferguson is attacked as a carpetbagger and RINO by MTG and her allies - however, he receives enthusiastic backing from a wide range of establishment Republicans (most notably Dan Crenshaw) tired of Greene's antics, and is quietly favored by the RNC. In one of the largest battle between establishment and Trumpist Republicans yet, Ferguson wins by just 125 votes after a contentious recount - propelled over the line by Democratic votes (due to Georgia's open primary system). Predictably, Greene and her allies immediately allege fraud, and she declares a write-in run against the 'Democrat' Ferguson. With the RNC now openly against her run, and Democrats largely holding their noses to oppose her, Ferguson wins the general election 50-41.

SC-01: The newly configured 1st District moves to Biden+7.7, over 13 points left of its predecessor. With a golden opportunity to reclaim his seat, former Rep. Joe Cunningham drops his gubernatorial run, instead seeking a 2020 rematch with incumbent Nancy Mace. Mace, who somewhat alienated the GOP base with mixed rhetoric on Trump, struggles despite a pronounced national Republican lean, and Cunningham successfully returns to Congress after defeating Mace 51-46 - a rare Democratic pickup in a swingy seat.

SC-02/03/07: These seats are both easy Republican holds, but for different reasons. In the 2nd District, Rep. Jeff Duncan easily wins re-election following Joe Wilson's retirement, and 5th District representative Ralph Norman runs and wins in the 3rd District. In the 7th District, meanwhile, incumbent Tom Rice, who voted to impeach Trump, is primaried - but the GOP holds the deep-red seat anyway.

SC-04: This seat, stretching from Anderson to Greenville and Spartanburg, moves to the periphery of competition, voting for Trump by 11 points in 2020 and 15.5 in 2016. It is not competitive in 2022, however - incumbent William Timmons of Greenville wins re-election easily, 58-40.

SC-05: This revamped, now minority-opportunity district unites bluer suburban areas in Columbia and south of Charlotte, while also running east to grab deep-blue parts of Florence's core. It voted Biden by 11.4 points in 2020, with Clinton winning in 2016 by a reduced 8.4 point margin. With incumbent Ralph Norman moving to the 3rd, Republicans are hard-pressed to hold this open seat, but with a favorable political environment, they try anyway. Despite this, Democrats successfully pick it up, winning 52-46.

SC-06: Rep. Jim Clyburn gets a safe D district with a slightly lower black population then he is used to. He defeats a token Republican opponent with ease.

Seats
Republicans 26 seats (-4)
Democrats 24 seats (+4)

[OBD]

Ohio and West Virginia


In Ohio, an aggressive early Democratic attempt is stymied by the state Supreme Court, resulting in the map going back to the drawing table. The result is a relatively fair map with several competitive districts - the most notable changes include the cutting of the snake-by-the-lake seat, and general consolidation of seats into metro areas (Cincy, Columbus, and Cleveland all have less districts representing them than in 2010). In West Virginia, Democrats do the best they can to create as blue a seat as possible - but in the deeply Republican state, it's obviously nowhere near enough to create a competitive district.

OH-01: Retreating into Cincinnati, the 1st District becomes much more Democratic, voting for Biden by a hair over 20 points (and for Clinton by just over 14). Incumbent Republican Steve Chabot opts to run in the 2nd District instead, leaving this seat open for a Democrat to win in a layup.

OH-02/04/07/08:Republicans Steve Chabot, Jim Jordan, Bob Gibbs, and Warren Davidson run and win in these reconfigured seats virtually unopposed.

OH-03/11: Likewise, Democrats Joyce Beatty and Shontel Brown cruise to re-election in these safely Democratic seats.

OH-05: With the snake-by-the-lake dead, this Toledo-based district takes in the western parts of the snake in addition to more inland areas, including Bowling Green. Incumbents Marcy Kaptur (D) and Bob Latta (R) are both drawn into this swingy, but R-trending district. Kaptur, despite representing large parts of the seat for nearly three decades, is put at a disadvantage by new, heavily Republican territory, in addition to weakening Democratic strength all across the seat. With both sides spending heavily here, Latta defeats Kaptur by a larger-than-expected 52-45 margin.

OH-06: Freshman Rep. Mike Carey and his longer-tenured counterpart, Rep. Brad Wenstrup, are forced into a primary here, a contest that Wenstrup wins fairly easily with his strong experience advantage. He wins the general election as well in this safe Republican district.

OH-09: This (effectively) new district takes in outer Cleveland and Lorain County, looping haphazardly around the 11th to keep Cuyahoga County whole. Biden wins here by 11.5 points, with Clinton winning by 8.4 as well. With Republican incumbent Anthony Gonzalez retiring, this open-seat race is contested by both parties. Democrats ultimately take advantage of favorable partisan lean and (relatively) favorable trends to win this seat, albeit by a somewhat close 52-46 margin.

OH-10: This redrawn Dayton-based seat also takes in Springfield and Fairborn while losing rural Fayette County, moving somewhat leftward to Trump+3.5 in 2020 (from Trump+6 in 2016). However, incumbent Mike Turner is popular and well-known in his seat, and with national headwinds blowing his way he trounces his Democratic opponent 57-42.

OH-12: With the Republican gerrymander of 2010 dismantled, a new Democratic seat emerges in north Columbus. This reconfigured district voted for Biden by a robust 17-point margin, a nearly 8-point leftward shift from 2016. And, with potential incumbents Mike Carey and Troy Balderson running elsewhere, this becomes an open-seat race heavily tilted to Democrats. With Republicans abandoning this race to focus on other opportunities in the Buckeye State and the rest of the nation, a Democratic challenger wins here 55-43.

OH-13: Uniting Akron and Canton, the new 13th is a bonafide swing seat, voting for Clinton and Biden by 4 points each. With technical incumbent Tim Ryan running for Senate, this is yet another primetime open-seat race in Ohio - and unlike the other no-incumbent contests, Republicans are able to triumph narrowly here 50-48 with a good, well-funded candidate and favorable national numbers.

OH-14: Rep. Dave Joyce's new seat only voted for Trump by 7 in 2016. But, by 2020, it shifts to the right of his current seat due to trading out portions of Cuyahoga for rapidly R-trending Youngstown, and Joyce easily weathers the addition of new territory to win re-election 59-38.

OH-15: Incumbents Troy Balderson and Bill Johnson get shoved into the same seat, resulting in Ohio's second incumbent-on-incumbent primary. Johnson, like Wenstrup in the neighboring seat, leverages his increased seniority to win this matchup and hold the seat for the GOP.

West Virginia: Most of the limited drama in West Virginia's 2022 election cycle occurs in the First District primary - where Rep.'s Alex Mooney and David McKinley duke it out. While Mooney is backed by Trump, McKinley's campaign successfully paints him as a carpetbagger, and good institutional strength in the seat's northern half allows McKinley to win the primary 55-44 and the general election by more. Incumbent Carol Miller, meanwhile, cruises to re-election the 2nd District.

Seats
Republicans 38 seats (-7)
Democrats 29 seats (+5)

[Schiff for Senate]

Missouri


While Show-Me State Democrats were limited by Missouri's strong Republican lean, they ultimately managed to extract three districts (plus a competitive swing district) for themselves, shoring up St. Louis while drawing an unfortunately-shaped gerrymander in the West to create two target districts in the Kansas City area. Of the Republican incumbents, Rep. Billy Long gets the short stick and is drawn into the swingy 6th district, but could choose to mount a primary challenge to Vicky Hartzler in the 4th.

2nd District: The suburban St. Louis district moves from Trump+11 to Clinton+14, moving from a Likely R seat to a Likely D one, while retaining a significant pro-Democratic trend. In 2022, a local Democrat runs and easily wins by a 57-42 margin.

5th District: The Kansas City-based district moves somewhat rightward to allow for a swingy 6th District, but is still Clinton +10. Whether Cleaver runs or is primaried, this district elects a Democrat in 2022, by a slightly thinner 55-44 margin.

6th District: A snake district linking Springfield, Columbia, Jefferson City, and St. Louis suburbs, this was a Trump +6 district that Biden likely came close in or won in 2020. The towns it picks up are all trending Democratic at varying clips, but this seat is more wave insurance than a solid gerrymandered seat. In 2022, a Democrat (perhaps Jason Kander) makes it close, but Rep. Billy Long or another GOPer holds the seat 52-47.

Change in Delegation from 2020
Democrats gain 1 seat
Republicans lose 1 seat

I actually created a cleaner 4-4 map for MO that splits St Louis three ways:

https://districtr.org/plan/102506

[Schiff for Senate]

Kudos for that creative 5th district. I would not have expected a Clinton district to be possible without completely grotesque Rorsach blot lines.

This might not be a Clinton district, but it voted Democratic by over 20 in the 2018 gubernatorial election: https://districtr.org/plan/102538.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kudos for that creative 5th district. I would not have expected a Clinton district to be possible without completely grotesque Rorsach blot lines.

This might not be a Clinton district, but it voted Democratic by over 20 in the 2018 gubernatorial election: https://districtr.org/plan/102538.

I assume Biden also won here?

[Schiff for Senate]

Kudos for that creative 5th district. I would not have expected a Clinton district to be possible without completely grotesque Rorsach blot lines.

This might not be a Clinton district, but it voted Democratic by over 20 in the 2018 gubernatorial election: https://districtr.org/plan/102538.

I assume Biden also won here?

Don't have the data on that, unfortunately, but there's a very high chance he did (in the 2018 House elections, it did go blue by a solid 8.4%, so I suppose it supported Biden as well).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kudos for that creative 5th district. I would not have expected a Clinton district to be possible without completely grotesque Rorsach blot lines.

This might not be a Clinton district, but it voted Democratic by over 20 in the 2018 gubernatorial election: https://districtr.org/plan/102538.

I assume Biden also won here?

Don't have the data on that, unfortunately, but there's a very high chance he did (in the 2018 House elections, it did go blue by a solid 8.4%, so I suppose it supported Biden as well).

Ah. That makes sense.

[patzer]

For North Carolina I think you can do a 10-4 that isn’t too ugly. You aim for three red districts in the western half of the state and one in the east. An Asheville-Charlotte district is the safest route– a district made of Buncombe, Rutherford, and Cleveland counties with part of Gaston county and enough of Charlotte to make the district blue. You should be able to make two more solidly blue districts out of the rest of Charlotte and its suburbs.

The 3rd, as a Republican sink, you’ll want to have include the entire NC coast, including just a narrow strip of Wilmington to link the current district to include Columbus and Brunswick counties. (The rest of Wilmington can stay in a 7th which you will flip blue)

From here it’s simply a case of distributing the remaining Dem districts as neatly as you can, they’ll border each other after all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For North Carolina I think you can do a 10-4 that isn’t too ugly. You aim for three red districts in the western half of the state and one in the east. An Asheville-Charlotte district is the safest route– a district made of Buncombe, Rutherford, and Cleveland counties with part of Gaston county and enough of Charlotte to make the district blue. You should be able to make two more solidly blue districts out of the rest of Charlotte and its suburbs.

The 3rd, as a Republican sink, you’ll want to have include the entire NC coast, including just a narrow strip of Wilmington to link the current district to include Columbus and Brunswick counties. (The rest of Wilmington can stay in a 7th which you will flip blue)

From here it’s simply a case of distributing the remaining Dem districts as neatly as you can, they’ll border each other after all.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d07143ee-c347-4d3e-b536-7173c9d1adcc
This ought to do the job.

[patzer]

And this is a pretty comfortable 4-3 Alabama.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d93324e6-7bbf-460d-a0bb-60e66ff2f45b



2nd, 5th, and 7th are Biden+15, +18, and +14 respectively.