Primary Reform: A New Proposal

[DabbingSanta]

All 50 states + territories + DC vote at once. If a candidate gets over 50% of the vote, they win the nomination.

If no candidate reaches 50%, the top two candidates get a runoff election, maybe a month or two after the original primary. Whoever wins the runoff wins the nomination.

This would work similar to the jungle primary system we see in some southern states, except it would be implemented at the national level.

I just thought of this. Let me know what you all think.

Some positives: No focus on any particular state, forces candidates to be favored by majority of the electorate.

Negatives: Limits potential for grassroot campaigns being successful. 

[MarkD]

All 50 states + territories + DC vote at once. If a candidate gets over 50% of the vote, they win the nomination.

If no candidate reaches 50%, the top two candidates get a runoff election, maybe a month or two after the original primary. Whoever wins the runoff wins the nomination.

This would work similar to the jungle primary system we see in some southern states, except it would be implemented at the national level.

I just thought of this. Let me know what you all think.

Some positives: No focus on any particular state, forces candidates to be favored by majority of the electorate.

Negatives: Limits potential for grassroot campaigns being successful. 

That's why I don't agree with this proposal.

I have been saying for years that we need a constitutional amendment that prohibits any state from holding a presidential primary or caucus before April 1. Then allow only the smallest states (with 3 or 4 ECVs) to hold them during April (or later, if they so choose). Then allow the medium-sized states (with 5 to 11 ECVs) to hold them during May (or later). Require all of the largest states (with 12 or more ECVs) to wait until June. This system would give grassroots campaigns a chance to succeed; "retail politics," where candidates could meet voters one-one-one, would likely matter more than just raising the most money.

[DabbingSanta]

Past primary season outcomes with my proposal.  

2020:

Trump wins in the first round.

No candidate reaches 50%. Sanders and Biden get a runoff.  Biden wins.

2016:

No candidate reaches 50%. Trump and Cruz get a runoff.  This could have gone either way.

Clinton narrowly wins in the first round, getting 51-52% of the vote.

2012:

No candidate reaches 50%. Romney and Gingrich get a runoff.  Romney wins.

Obama wins in the first round.

2008:

No candidate reaches 50%. McCain and Huckabee get a runoff.  McCain wins.

No candidate reaches 50%. Clinton and Obama get a runoff.  Obama wins.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Another Negative: Too expensive to hold national runoffs

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is I believe what would happen:

2004:

Republicans: Bush wins in the first Round

Democrats: Kerry and Edwards advance to runoff and Kerry wins

2008:

Republicans: McCain and Romney advances to runoff and McCain wins

Democrats: Hillary and Obama advance to runoff and Hillary wins(the caucus system really helped Obama win the primaires, without it and getting mometnum from wins in small states I think Hillary wins the nomination)


2012:

Republicans: Romney and Gingrich advance to runoff and Romney wins

Democrats: Obama wins in the first round


2016:

Republicans: Trump and Rubio advance to runoff and Rubio wins(I think Rubio wins the runoff very very narrowly as Cruz and the rest of the candidates endorse him)

Democrats: Hillary narrowly wins in first round(given it was basically a two person race even in round 1)


2020:

Republicans: Trump wins in Round 1

Democrats: Biden and Bernie advance to runoff and Biden wins

[SInNYC]

I dont think that 2008 D would have gone to a second round with these rules. IMHO Hillary would have won a comfortable first round victory, and Edwards would have done much better in the south without an upstart Obama. African Americans were wary of voting for Obama until they saw that he could win in IA. So, something like 55-25-15 for H-O-E?

The above assumes its before Edwards' scandal. If after Edwards' scandal, more like 65-30 (vs 48-48 in reality)?

[Canis]

This is how it would go if all the primaries voted on feb 1st this year based off the polling averages +my guesses based on results for the primaries that didn't get polled

Joe Biden 27%
Bernie Sanders 24%
Elizabeth Warren 15%
Michael Bloomberg 8%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
Andrew Yang 5%
Amy Klobuchar 4%
not sure what the second round would look like but likely a clear high Biden win

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Past primary season outcomes with my proposal.  
2008:

No candidate reaches 50%. McCain and Huckabee get a runoff.  McCain wins.

No candidate reaches 50%. Clinton and Obama get a runoff.  Obama Hillary wins.

FIFY.

[Former President tack50]

I agree with that proposal. I think the "grassroots candidate" argument doesn't make much sense.