Is there really any chance that the dem nominee is someone other than Biden or Harris?

[sofaboi]

Not sure why people here think the d primary will be competitive. Biden might get some hard left token opposition, but it will go nowhere.

As for Harris, she might get more serious opponents, but a primary victory would still be inevitable.

[brucejoel99]

There's a non-zero chance of anything, yeah. Not a >1% chance, mind you, but you asked if there's any chance that it's not either of them, & yes, there technically is.

[Figueira]

Assuming one of them runs, it's pretty close to inevitable that they win, yeah. Not 100%, though.

[rhg2052]

Very little. If Biden does not run, Harris will run with the full force of the Democratic establishment behind her. I'm sure she would get some sort of primary challenge, but more of a Gore vs. Bradley type of situation as opposed to a 2020 or even 2016 scenario.

[VBM]

Only if Harris is running. She’s not a good candidate, so she could get primaried

[Hammy]

Only if both the presidency and vice presidency are occupied by somebody else by that point.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Illness, death, or mental incapacity is the only thing between Biden or Harris not being the nominee.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Yes, but as of this writing, it's pretty low.

[SnowLabrador]

Yes, but as of this writing, it's pretty low.

[NYDem]

Certainly. If Biden doesn't run again there is no way Progressives (or a good portion of moderates for that matter) are going to just go along with a Kamala coronation. She would be the favorite, but she wouldn't have some unbeatable position.

[dw93]

Very little. If Biden does not run, Harris will run with the full force of the Democratic establishment behind her. I'm sure she would get some sort of primary challenge, but more of a Gore vs. Bradley type of situation as opposed to a 2020 or even 2016 scenario.

This is what scares me. If Biden sits it out, the Democrats need to allow an open, competitive primary. The playbook the Democrats need to take from in a Bidenless 2024 (assuming Harris isn't already the incumbent in this scenario) is the Republicans in 1988, where Bush did have to compete for the nomination, not the coronations of Gore and Hillary in 2000 and 2016 respectively.

[MABA 2020]

No not really, I don't see anyone else in a strong enough position to successfully challenge ether of them.

[Mr. Smith]

Only if Harris is running. She’s not a good candidate, so she could get primaried

This is exactly what was true of Biden [who has two joke campaigns under his belt for proof], and given how his margin was tighter than Trump's in 2016, it still is in a sense.

And yet, here we are.

All because "Wuz Obama's Veep dur hurr", and it assassinated the chance of any kind of true reform just like that.

Harris runs, she'll have the advantage, by a lot.

[Galeel]

It will very likely be one of them, but I think there's some chance that Harris could lose a primary to a strong, serious challenger. She doesn't seem like a strong candidate to me and her 2020 campaign was a disaster.

[Chips]

Yes, but as of this writing, it's pretty low.

[Camaro33]

It could be Trump if he decides to troll and registers as a Democrat and nobody takes the primary seriously. And if Republicans decide to register as Democrats to vote in the primary.

Just kidding, no chance. It's one of those two.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Certainly. If Biden doesn't run again there is no way Progressives (or a good portion of moderates for that matter) are going to just go along with a Kamala coronation. She would be the favorite, but she wouldn't have some unbeatable position.

Much less of one then Hillary did honestly. I think people seriously overrate her chances even if she is the frontrunner.

[BaldEagle1991]

Only if both die in office, now disclaimer I do NOT wish for that to happen but that’s the only way for that to happen.