Catalyst138
Jr. Member
Posts: 833
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« on: December 05, 2020, 01:46:05 PM » |
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Obama got both North and South Dakota within single digits in 2008 despite Kerry losing them by 20-25 points. North Dakota had the third largest leftward swing behind Hawaii and Indiana, and it was genuinely considered a swing state in the lead up to the election.
Even in 2012, which was a reversion to the mean for many states, Obama still lost the Dakotas by less than 20 points, still noticeably better than Kerry and Gore. But just 4 years later, Trump destroyed Hillary in both states by over 30 points. The state with the largest Republican swing in 2016 wasn’t Iowa or Maine, but North Dakota! It seems as if Obama had some sort of appeal to these two ruby-red states that a generic Democrat doesn’t, but what is it?
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