Why was Obama so strong in the Dakotas?
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  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Why was Obama so strong in the Dakotas?
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Author Topic: Why was Obama so strong in the Dakotas?  (Read 1174 times)
Catalyst138
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« on: December 05, 2020, 01:46:05 PM »

Obama got both North and South Dakota within single digits in 2008 despite Kerry losing them by 20-25 points. North Dakota had the third largest leftward swing behind Hawaii and Indiana, and it was genuinely considered a swing state in the lead up to the election.

Even in 2012, which was a reversion to the mean for many states, Obama still lost the Dakotas by less than 20 points, still noticeably better than Kerry and Gore. But just 4 years later, Trump destroyed Hillary in both states by over 30 points. The state with the largest Republican swing in 2016 wasn’t Iowa or Maine, but North Dakota! It seems as if Obama had some sort of appeal to these two ruby-red states that a generic Democrat doesn’t, but what is it?
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cwh2018
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« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2020, 02:12:37 PM »

North Dakota had an oil discovery I believe, meaning a lot of out of state people came into North Dakota
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jrk26
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« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2020, 03:27:47 PM »

As far as SD goes, 2008 was an anomaly.  2012 really wasn't, though...Obama lost it by 18, but was winning by 4 nationally, so it voted 22 points to the right of the nation.  Pretty similar to 2004 and before.  In 2004, Bush won SD by 21.5 points and won nationally by 2.5 points, meaning SD was 19 points to the right of the nation.  So actually, SD voted more R relative to the nation in 2012 than it did in 2004.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2020, 03:44:02 PM »

In 2008 Obama did really well in parts of the rural midwest with residual statewide party strength. The South Dakota Dems and the D-NPL still had residual appeal in rural Scandinavian areas of the state (3/4 of Dakota Senators were Democratic in 2008).

E.g., here's a Swedish ancestry map (source: Wikimedia)


Western parts of these states are sparser and most industry is ranching (before the oil boom at least) so liberal politics were never going to be appealing there. But east of the Missouri you see a lot of Scandinavian farmers.



(note that NE corner also has a reservation)



(Heitkamp basically won all of these Eastern counties in 2012 and even won most of them in 2018)

for reference here's the Minnesota map in 2008 - similarly Obama had a lot of strength in western and southeastern parts of the state that are heavily Scandinavian (and also coterminous with the areas he won in the Dakotas)



The bottom fell out in all of these places with the oil boom and general urban/rural polarization.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2020, 04:35:25 PM »


What I find really interesting is that this correlates super well in the Dakotas, but not so well in parts of rural Nebraska, despite the similar demographics and close proximity.  It appears the counties mentioned also voted Dem in 1976 and 1988-1996, also elections where the Dakotas were closer.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2020, 01:03:14 PM »

It really does seem like he was exceptionally strong across the entire Midwest.

It's becoming increasingly clear that Obama and Trump have a lot of the same electoral strengths, and that Biden's area of strength is not the Midwest as was expected but rather the Northeast.

Interesting implications for future elections.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2020, 02:14:19 PM »

I'm not sure about 2012 but in 2008 i'd argue that it's the result of the 50 state strategy having paid off for Democrats.
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