Is Texas Now a Battleground State?

[MargieCat]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=5gki

I could see a map like this where TX is the decisive state. There is a case that this election might've been the last hurrah for Democrats in the rust belt, Biden was hand picked by voters because he was the canidate who could win back the WWC and flip the big 3, and he only narrowly one all 3 states from stalling rural trends and pushing suburban areas to their limit, and juicing just enough votes from the shrinking urban centers. If the rust belt is off the table, and if FL and NC are titanium tilt R forever, the next most plausible win would be TX.

I do think NC is officially going to fall in 2024.

[MargieCat]

I could see a map like this where TX is the decisive state. There is a case that this election might've been the last hurrah for Democrats in the rust belt, Biden was hand picked by voters because he was the canidate who could win back the WWC and flip the big 3, and he only narrowly one all 3 states from stalling rural trends and pushing suburban areas to their limit, and juicing just enough votes from the shrinking urban centers. If the rust belt is off the table, and if FL and NC are titanium tilt R forever, the next most plausible win would be TX.

I do think NC is officially going to fall in 2024.

It swung a whopping 0% this year relative to the NPV. Based on what do you think it’ll fall, barring a sizable NPV win for the Democrats that year (which isn’t impossible)?

Trump's margin of victory still shrank by more than half between 2016 and 2020.

[MargieCat]

It depends of what do you mean by ''battleground state'' but it is funny to see that many people who would never call VA (a D+6 state) a battleground state call TX (R+10) a battleground one.

Long term trends.

[MargieCat]

y'all seem to assume that "trends continue exactly as they have forever" and it's so stupid to think that

Texas will eventually be a swing state by virtue of Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston growing rapidly.

The more urban a state gets, the more Democratic. Look at Atlanta and Phoenix.

And when a state urban population collapses, the state become more republican (St. Louis).

Off topic, but do you think that growth in Madison will keep Wisconsin blue for awhile longer? Despite many of the rust belt cities collapsing, lots of college towns in the same states seem to be doing well