Is Texas Now a Battleground State?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definately; I would argue it has a higher chance of tipping 2024 than people here think, though it's almost certain to vote to the right of the NPV barring something really unexpected. TX is pretty much exactly where GA was in 2016 in terms of margin, for reference. It'll be4 interesting to see if Democrats continue to gain in and suburbs or if the GOP holds their gains in RGV. I would still give the GOP the edge but I think they should start being worried about this time bomb.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=5gki

I could see a map like this where TX is the decisive state. There is a case that this election might've been the last hurrah for Democrats in the rust belt, Biden was hand picked by voters because he was the canidate who could win back the WWC and flip the big 3, and he only narrowly one all 3 states from stalling rural trends and pushing suburban areas to their limit, and juicing just enough votes from the shrinking urban centers. If the rust belt is off the table, and if FL and NC are titanium tilt R forever, the next most plausible win would be TX.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the GOP nominee is competitive with the NPV, then no. It swung left only 1 point more than the nation overall (trend) and in fact moved by almost the same margin as neighboring Oklahoma.

It does seem like at this point, by default the NPV leans D. That's why even though a place like VA was as close to the NPV as FL, people see VA as a pretty likely bet for Republicans while FL could be a bit more interesting.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Texas will be close in 2028 even with the Republican winning and will be won by a Democrat in 2032.

Very confident in that take. Why so?

[ProgressiveModerate]

It depends of what do you mean by ''battleground state'' but it is funny to see that many people who would never call VA (a D+6 state) a battleground state call TX (R+10) a battleground one.

Long term trends.

Trends can change quite quickly; we really have no idea what the attitude will be in 4 years or 4 months. This could all attribute to new trends.

That's true, but even though VA was closer to the NPV than TX, it seems less likely to flip since Democrats consistantly win the NPV, and even though trends can sometimes suddenly reverse, it general, trends tend to continue, and VA has no sign of slowing down it's leftwards trend.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm really getting tired of the "muh uniquely bad" takes with respect to like every single state. Trump won against the odds in 2016 and kept it shockingly close in 2020. It seems just as likely to me that Trump is a uniquely good fit for the Republican coalition as opposed to uniquely bad, and we'll have to wait until at least 2024 to see with any measure of confidence which one is the case.

Trump got less votes than Romney as a share of the electorate twice, and you think he’s a good fit for the GOP?

Both TX and the GOP are changing though. Romney, the GOP canidate from 2012, is now one of the most hated figures in his own party and would never be able to win the nomination today. Furthermore, TX is a very different state than it was 8 or 12 years ago. Obama didn't lose GA in 2008 becuase he was any worse of a fit than Biden, or McCain wasn't a better fit than Trump, it's just that overall the Democratic and GOP coalitions have changed. Sure, Trump may have accelerated some trends, and we could see a bit of mean-reversion in 2024, but we shouldn't assume things are just going to suddenly stop.