I could see a map like this where TX is the decisive state. There is a case that this election might've been the last hurrah for Democrats in the rust belt, Biden was hand picked by voters because he was the canidate who could win back the WWC and flip the big 3, and he only narrowly one all 3 states from stalling rural trends and pushing suburban areas to their limit, and juicing just enough votes from the shrinking urban centers. If the rust belt is off the table, and if FL and NC are titanium tilt R forever, the next most plausible win would be TX.
It swung a whopping 0% this year relative to the NPV. Based on what do you think it’ll fall, barring a sizable NPV win for the Democrats that year (which isn’t impossible)?
In an election where the country as a whole shifts to left a couple of points and the margin was tiny anyways, that means nothing. It doesn’t mean Democrats can’t win it, but no reason to be tilting that way now.
Comparing states to the NPV is overrated.
Because? In this context, it means that Biden would have to increase on his NPV margin in 2024 to win NC. Don’t see why that line of think is flawed. I think it confuses cause and effect. NC didn't swing left because the NPV swung left. The NPV swung left because voters in different states swung different directions for different reasons and the aggregate was a NPV swing to the left
which just happened to align with NC's swing to the left.
A better way to look at thinks is to consider how different demographics and regions are likely to swing based on their recent swings and the aggregate of that is the future NPV, not the other way around. This is particularly true in the era of extreme polarization we're in .
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