Which will be more competitive in 2024, Iowa or Maine?

[VAR]

?

inb4 dem hacks say iowa

[KaiserDave]

Maine (obviously), but neither will flip.

Republicans can win Maine in the future, by ME-01 is an area where Democrats have room to improve.

[WD]

Maine, obviously. A state that went from Obama+16 in 2012 to Biden+9 in 2020 when Republicans did worse in the PV in the latter year, is more competitive than a state that went from Obama+6 in 2012 to Trump+8 2020, and is only shifting even further to the GOP as time goes on.

[MT Treasurer]

ME is Lean D (you could make a case for Likely D, but I think it’s one of the very few Clinton/Biden states [NH, NV, and maybe NM being the other ones] which has a very good chance of trending considerably to the right during Biden's first term, although the Portland area remains a problem for the GOP), IA is Safe R, so ME.

[Hope For A New Era]

Technically Maine, but I don't expect either to be truly competitive outside of the kind of landslide that is almost impossible under the current polarization level.

ME-AL: Lean D
ME-01: Likely D, or Safe D if Trump runs again
ME-02: Lean R

IA: Likely R, or Safe R if Trump runs again

[ProgressiveModerate]

Both are small states that are quite elastic but for now I have to say Maine. Susan Collins has proved that the right Republican has real potential to win Maine, while in IA, Democrats have not had a very good last couple of years up and down the ballot. Another thing to consider is that Maine's Demographics really aren't that favorable to Democrats, the only thing that has been holding it there for Democrats is the strong educational attainment, but even then, it's not as high as neighboring states like NH or MA. So overall, I would say Maine.

[SnowLabrador]

Maine, for sure.

[AGA]

In my opinion, Iowa is Safe R while Maine is Likely D, so Maine.