GA - Trafalgar: Ossoff+1, Loeffler+5

[Left Wing]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1334927081835270147

Tells you all you need to know about the poll, honestly.

Why do they have to be so goddamn  pretentious about their polls?

[Sir Mohamed]

Even if you believe Trafalgar was better than other pollsters for not underestimating Trump, a 6 pt. difference between these races just makes zero sense. I'd be surprised if there a greater than 1-2 pts. difference in the end.

[KaiserDave]

Why does anyone care about what Robert Cahaly has to say about anything, or what polls say in this race at all

[neostassenite31]

Assuming that Trafalgar didn't make "social desirability" adjustments given that Trump is not on the ballot, the numbers they spit out are probably usable (as in most of their 2018 stuff).

This is a firm that definitively has the capacity to run scientific polls if they actually want to.

[Alben Barkley]

Assuming that Trafalgar didn't make "social desirability" adjustments given that Trump is not on the ballot, the numbers they spit out are probably usable (as in most of their 2018 stuff).

This is a firm that definitively has the capacity to run scientific polls if they actually want to.

I think they also consider “social desirability” when a black candidate is running, which might explain why Loeffler is up here.

[Badger]

As much as it almost literally physically pains me to say this, Trafalgar cannot be written off after 2016 and 2020 results.

To follow up on that like a one-two punch to the gut, maybe there is something to their entire " social desirability" model for estimating Trump voters. Yes, it sounds inherently boneheaded when you first hear the concept, but one can't argue with results.

Of course come to think of it, how accurate were they in polling outside the presidential race? Maybe they are the Trump Whisperer among pollsters, but otherwise not great?

[lfromnj]

As much as it almost literally physically pains me to say this, Trafalgar cannot be written off after 2016 and 2020 results.

To follow up on that like a one-two punch to the gut, maybe there is something to their entire " social desirability" model for estimating Trump voters. Yes, it sounds inherently boneheaded when you first hear the concept, but one can't argue with results.

Of course come to think of it, how accurate were they in polling outside the presidential race? Maybe they are the Trump Whisperer among pollsters, but otherwise not great?

They do fairly ok in most states although are absolute garbage in Georgia for some reason.

[MATTROSE94]

Even if you believe Trafalgar was better than other pollsters for not underestimating Trump, a 6 pt. difference between these races just makes zero sense. I'd be surprised if there a greater than 1-2 pts. difference in the end.

We do have David "King of the Suburbs" Perdue and the Unbeatable Titan Raphael Warnock running, so there might be a 50 point difference between both candidates lol.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Although the hate on this forum for Trafalgar is exaggerated their Georgia polls are actually junk with serious R bias. Not a good sign for Rs.

Loeffler isn't running 6 points ahead of Perdue

That wouldn't be a particularly surprising outcome, honestly.  I mean, obviously the usual LOL Trafalgar issues still apply, but this is far more likely than Perdue outperforming Loeffler.

[S019]

Trafalgar=trash, regardless of the toplines