2020 Census and Redistricting: Kentucky

[Zaybay]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district. 

I don't see how you can make the legal argument that two districts leaving Jefferson and entering other counties isn't excessive splitting when it only has to be 1 district that leaves Jefferson. 

Because Jeffco is still only split once.  A district containing multiple counties isn't a split.

The problem is that the county only needs to be split once. The prosecution can make a rather easy argument that it violates the intention of the law, and the rather moderate State Supreme Court would likely side with Beshear.

Also, it would be violating the second part of the law, where COI's are suppose to be kept whole. Splitting Jefferson county more than 2 times to get a tossup seat likely involves splitting Louisville.

[Frodo]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district.  

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.    

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible.  

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

Sound advice for Kentucky Republicans, especially those in the House.  

[Idaho Conservative]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district.  

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.    

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible.  

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

Sound advice for Kentucky Republicans, especially those in the House.  

No matter now the leg maps are they will be R super majority.  Even a Dem gerrymander couldn't stop that.  The only real fight is Louisville. 

[Sol]

Tried my hand at Kentucky. Nothing too controversial I'd imagine, and this would probably be 5-1 most years.



link

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Here's a possible kentucky map R-Gerrymander with the most liberal district voting trump by 16 points.

[Torie]

Here is a Pub gerrymander that has good prospects of not ending up a dummymander. The seat with the city of Louisville (all its suburbs in the county were excised in exchange for hyper-Pub counties that are not trending Dem) is lean Pub. The Lexington based seat suffers a similar fate, with it be severed from its blue grass neighbors, in particular Frankfurt.

Yes the map is disgusting. Thank you.

[EastwoodS]

Here's a possible kentucky map R-Gerrymander with the most liberal district voting trump by 16 points.

Already looking at Jefferson county, it gets thrown out immediately . You can’t break up Jefferson county more than twice.

[Roll Roons]

Tried by hand at a 6R-0D map:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/38bf842a-7982-4f94-87f4-cf873d72e11f

Jefferson County is now split in half between KY-02 and KY-03; obviously the former gets much bluer and the latter gets much redder. Both of the Louisville crack districts were around Trump +12 in 2016 - a tough lift for Democrats, but not impossible in a good year.

KY-06 gets slightly redder to Trump +16, as it loses Frankfort to KY-04 and picks up rural territory to spare from KY-05.

KY-01, KY-04 and KY-05 generally don't change much, and all are still deep red. KY-05 includes everyone's favorite county.

I doubt Biden won any districts, though there's a good chance he got KY-02, KY-03 and KY-06 into single digits. Beshear almost certainly won those three.

[Thunder98]

Here is a 5-1 GOP map with a one dem sink district that stretches from Louisville to Lexington.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c1b3990-57b3-4769-930e-379a7aa76fb6

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is a 5-1 GOP map with a one dem sink district that stretches from Louisville to Lexington.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c1b3990-57b3-4769-930e-379a7aa76fb6

Creative.

[Stuart98]

Does the 6th have to be so long? Surely there's a more compact option.

[Torie]

It seems that the KY Constitutional requirements do not apply to Congressional districts, just legislative districts. For CD's, the term "guidelines" is used, but even if state law, that law can be amended at any time. So it appears to me the Pubs can effectively do whatever they want with Congressional districts.

https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Kentucky#cite_note-kyloyola-32

[Frodo]

Has anyone tried their hand at drawing state legislative districts, especially in the House?  Since we are most likely going to see a Republican gerrymander (but in accordance with state constitutional requirements, naturally), I'd like to see what that looks like in that particular chamber.  

[Nyvin]

It seems that the KY Constitutional requirements do not apply to Congressional districts, just legislative districts. For CD's, the term "guidelines" is used, but even if state law, that law can be amended at any time. So it appears to me the Pubs can effectively do whatever they want with Congressional districts.

https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Kentucky#cite_note-kyloyola-32

There has literally never been a KY County with more than 2 districts in it in the state's entire history though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has anyone tried their hand at drawing state legislative districts, especially in the House?  Since we are most likely going to see a Republican gerrymander (but in accordance with state constitutional requirements, naturally), I'd like to see what that looks like in that particular chamber.  

I have made such a map. Will be posting shortly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ffdfee87-cf80-42b4-b337-8179d440eaad

33 seats on this map voted for Beshear in 2019.

[Frodo]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ffdfee87-cf80-42b4-b337-8179d440eaad

33 seats on this map voted for Beshear in 2019.

Very nice!  Can we have a version broken down by partisan colors? 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ffdfee87-cf80-42b4-b337-8179d440eaad

33 seats on this map voted for Beshear in 2019.

Very nice!  Can we have a version broken down by partisan colors? 

Which baseline would you prefer I use?

[Frodo]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ffdfee87-cf80-42b4-b337-8179d440eaad

33 seats on this map voted for Beshear in 2019.

Very nice!  Can we have a version broken down by partisan colors? 

Which baseline would you prefer I use?

The last presidential election. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The last presidential election. 

DRA doesn't have 2020 election data yet for Kentucky.
2016 election data, their most recent presidential election dataset, is also a fair bit boring. All but 25 districts are the deepest shade of red. All but two of them are in Lexington or Louisville; the other two border Hamilton County.
I can provide a closeup showing the only area in the state with these districts if you are so inclined.

[Frodo]

The last presidential election.  

DRA doesn't have 2020 election data yet for Kentucky.
2016 election data, their most recent presidential election dataset, is also a fair bit boring. All but 25 districts are the deepest shade of red. All but two of them are in Lexington or Louisville; the other two border Hamilton County.

Oh well.  2016 will do.  As soon as the 2020 data becomes available, feel free to do that one too, though I don't anticipate too much of a difference between the two presidential elections.  At least in Kentucky.

I can provide a closeup showing the only area in the state with these districts if you are so inclined.

That sounds good to me. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

here you go

[Frodo]

And the rest of the state?  I know it will be the deepest shades of red, but nonetheless.... 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I actually drew this with 2019 governor figures and it really shows.
Case in point:
The Lexington wraparound district was drawn to have as narrow a Beshear margin as was possible for an all-Lexington HD.
The district in far east Louisville was drawn to be a Bevin district.
Some of the quasi-weird lines in Eastern Kentucky are drawn that way to turn 1 strong Beshear district and 1 strong Bevin district into 2 more marginal Bevin districts.
This is what the map looks like with 2019 governor figures.