GA - SurveyUSA: Ossoff+2, Warnock+7

[Buzz]

Junk.

Not much else to say.

Your Georgia record isn't exactly stellar

My record of identify sh*t polls is although that doesn’t exactly take skill.

[KaiserDave]

Junk.

Not much else to say.

Your Georgia record isn't exactly stellar

My record of identify sh*t polls is although that doesn’t exactly take skill.

That's not a response to what I said

[OneJ]

As so many polls did this year, the party ID is to dem, fortunately we have exit polls recently done to compare it to, the poll has a party ID of D+1, the exit polls had it at R+4, is the electorate really going to be a D+1 electorate, I doubt it.

Well you might be right but it’s a mistake to base this upcoming runoff’s turnout on what the electorate’s composition was on the general election. The best thing for us to do is to wait and see on the day of.

I have no problem with these polls, Trump trying overturn Election results are having a devestating impact on GA races

This Poll is totally ridiculous - Period!

It's has a D + 4 Sample! Nowhere near is this true!

Party ID Nov 3rd per CNN Exits (Presidential Race)
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia
D: 34 %
R: 38 %
I: 22 %

SurveyUSA wants us to believe that the Runoff Elections have a more favorable D-leaning Electorate compared to the November 3rd General Election.

What are these frivolous Pollsters smoking here?

The party is actually even at 44-44 if look closer at the poll. It was Biden +4 which is within the margin of error and reasonable is some people don't want to admit voting for the loser.

We are not going to have a Party ID that is 44-44 I can guarantee you that. Also Exits in GA had Black Electorate at 29 % in November, SUSA says it's 32 % in January. This Polls is junk. Black Turnout will not be higher in a Runoff Election.

You don’t really know that though. And it doesn’t look like you took into account that turnout among Asian and Hispanic voters might drop more relative to Black and white turnout. Non-college white share may also drop more relatively speaking as well. In other words, a lot of things can happen.

[LabourJersey]

Does anyone buy the 2 runoffs having results that far apart? CW is they are both within 2%ish either way. 

I definitely buy it. Loeffler's been running a distinct campaign, and a much worse campaign, than Perdue. There's also clearly some annoyance from Doug Collins supporters towards her too.

Perdue's stock trade scandal is bad, but I sadly don't think that'll stick. But Loeffler is clearly seen by a lot of people are a bad candidate with weird ads and campaigning with the Qanon lady Greene-Taylor.

I can easily imagine Loeffler running 3 or 4% behind Perdue, and that's enough for her to lose. For now I think I'll keep my original prediction of Perdue winning 52-28 while Warnock squeaks by 51-49.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don't buy these. Keep registering folks until December 7 and get out the vote Democrats! We can do this!

[Tender Branson]

I don’t buy anything other than a tie in both races ...

[Tender Branson]

Interesting stuff:

In their early/mid October poll (Perdue+3), 74% of registered voters were 100% certain to vote or have already voted.

In their new poll, 68% say they are 100% certain to vote (already voted was not asked).

This suggests almost GE-like turnout again.

In the new poll, 71% of Rs, 70% of Ds and 60% of Is are 100% certain to vote.

In the October poll, it was 80% of Rs, 82% of Ds and only 47% of Is.

[Buzz]

Junk.

Not much else to say.

Your Georgia record isn't exactly stellar

My record of identify sh*t polls is although that doesn’t exactly take skill.

That's not a response to what I said

I mean I didn’t deny it because it’s not wrong.  I was 100% wrong about GA in the election.  I said trump would win by 1% and he lost by .3%. 

[Matty]

The 5 point gap between the 2 races makes me very skeptical of this poll, as does the Biden +4 sample.

[President Johnson]

Take them with a big grain of salt. It's still more likely Cocaine Mitch will stay on as majority leader, unfortunately.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Take them with a big grain of salt. It's still more likely Cocaine Mitch will stay on as majority leader, unfortunately.

Not really Perdue is facing corruption charges and Loeffler is a bad fit.

We need a D majority for 2.2T stimulus and D's can pass it thru Reconciliation

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 5 point gap between the 2 races makes me very skeptical of this poll, as does the Biden +4 sample.

Perdue is facing corruption charges

[Suburbia]

Should we trust polls?

Still tossup.

[wbrocks67]

The 5 point gap between the 2 races makes me very skeptical of this poll, as does the Biden +4 sample.

I mean, again, it's quite possible the turnout is more D in the special - that many Trump voters stay home. We just don't know

[PAK Man]

I'm very skeptical about this myself - but interestingly, I do think Warnock is better-positioned to win than Ossoff.

[Benjamin Frank]

I want to believe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm very skeptical about this myself - but interestingly, I do think Warnock is better-positioned to win than Ossoff.

..Perdue is under investigation for corruption charges

[kwabbit]

The 5 point gap between the 2 races makes me very skeptical of this poll, as does the Biden +4 sample.

I doubt they will end up with a 5 point gap, but polling at a 5 point gap is reasonable. A lot of the effects of partisanship happen in the voting booth itself. Like as it stands right now, if you were to ask every Georgia likely voter who they're voting for, there might be a a 5 point gap, but once some of those people actually cast their vote the two races will converge.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The 5 point gap between the 2 races makes me very skeptical of this poll, as does the Biden +4 sample.

Indeed. Polarisation is getting stronger but I wouldn't expect Perdue to outperform Loeffler by anything less than 10% in a runoff where they lead the ticket.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Nope! Don't care! #Ignorethepolls #vote!

Though I do think it's realistic for Warnock to do better than Ossoff, but not by this much, it will be very slight.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I still think it's lean R.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

x

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

x

You can doubt it all you want but the fact remains Biden won GA and the Ds can win GA with Trump contesting the Election and refuses to concede and Perdue is going thru corruption charges

[MillennialModerate]

I see the polling industry has learned nothing

LOL my god.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I see the polling industry has learned nothing

LOL my god.

Lol Perdue is being investigated for corruption and Loeffler is lackadaisical, don't count out Ds