GA - SurveyUSA: Ossoff+2, Warnock+7

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Today is a good day to ignore the polls and sign up for a volunteer shift.

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone buy the 2 runoffs having results that far apart? CW is they are both within 2%ish either way. 

Not buying it either

While I could easily see both Dems winning, the crazy part of this is Warnock +7.

[Brittain33]

I need to stay out of the group until after the election because I can’t deal with false hope.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Furthermore, Rs on this website that believe that they are gonna sweep both races don't understand the dire straits people are in needing that Unemployment and the 1200 stimulus checks.  Tax cuts for rich that Trump passed in 2017 is reverse socialism

[Zache]

I still have zero reason to believe Ossoff is in any better position to win than he was four weeks ago.

[Xing]

Yeah no. There is not going to be a five-point gap between the two races.

[Gracile]

Not reading too much into polls, but I think both races will be incredibly close and I doubt Ossoff and Warnock run that far apart from each other.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1334508922758180864
I need future polls to confirm this, but like trump voters staying home cause the election is rigged might be an actual thing.

Yeah, but the polls numbers seem to contradict this theory.

The registered voters sample is Biden+4 and Ossoff +3 (among November voters), at the same time the smaller likely voters sample is Biden+4 and Ossoff+1, so a bit less dem friendly than the registered voters one, and the sample of people who are registered to vote but don't intend to vote in the runoff is Biden+8 and Ossoff+8.

So if these numbers are true lower turnout would hurt more democrats than republicans

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have no problem with these polls, Trump trying overturn Election results are having a devestating impact on GA races

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We're going into the field again on Monday , and this poll's got me curious to see what we get.

SurveyUSA doesn't typically deviate that far from us, but I have trouble buying the Warnock number in particular here.

Please tell me you guys wear a pith helmet, safari clothing and have cartoonishly large binoculars when you go out into the field.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah no. There is not going to be a five-point gap between the two races.

Xing you know D's need both these race, in sake of 1200 Stimulus, McConnell just ditched the 908B proposal. D's need the 2.2T package

[GeorgiaModerate]

We're going into the field again on Monday , and this poll's got me curious to see what we get.

SurveyUSA doesn't typically deviate that far from us, but I have trouble buying the Warnock number in particular here.

Please tell me you guys wear a pith helmet, safari clothing and have cartoonishly large binoculars when you go out into the field.  

They might need to wear protective gear to protect themselves from the invasive spiders.  One of these built a web entirely across my driveway at a height of about 8 feet between two trees.  I think it was trying to catch the UPS truck.

WARNING! Do not open the link if you are triggered by close-up pictures of large spiders.

https://www.ajc.com/life/exotic-orb-weaving-spider-creates-headaches-for-homeowners/LQQKFDIX5NGTNAO5OVN53JAZEI/

[2016]

I have no problem with these polls, Trump trying overturn Election results are having a devestating impact on GA races

This Poll is totally ridiculous - Period!

It's has a D + 4 Sample! Nowhere near is this true!

Party ID Nov 3rd per CNN Exits (Presidential Race)
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia
D: 34 %
R: 38 %
I: 22 %

SurveyUSA wants us to believe that the Runoff Elections have a more favorable D-leaning Electorate compared to the November 3rd General Election.

What are these frivolous Pollsters smoking here?

[RRusso1982]

Junk poll.  The electorate in the Loeffler/Warnock race is Biden + 4 and shows 81% turnout.  The November election was not 81% turnout.  This poll has black voters 32% of the electorate in the runoff and it was only 27% in November.

[WD]

N U T

Perdue-Warnock voters FTW. #CandidateQualityMatters

[CapoteMonster]

I have no problem with these polls, Trump trying overturn Election results are having a devestating impact on GA races

This Poll is totally ridiculous - Period!

It's has a D + 4 Sample! Nowhere near is this true!

Party ID Nov 3rd per CNN Exits (Presidential Race)
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia
D: 34 %
R: 38 %
I: 22 %

SurveyUSA wants us to believe that the Runoff Elections have a more favorable D-leaning Electorate compared to the November 3rd General Election.

What are these frivolous Pollsters smoking here?

The party is actually even at 44-44 if look closer at the poll. It was Biden +4 which is within the margin of error and reasonable is some people don't want to admit voting for the loser.

[2016]

Junk poll.  The electorate in the Loeffler/Warnock race is Biden + 4 and shows 81% turnout.  The November election was not 81% turnout.  This poll has black voters 32% of the electorate in the runoff and it was only 27% in November.

GA Electorate per NBC Exits Nov 3rd

White: 61 %
Black: 29 %
Hispanic: 7 %
Asian: 1 %
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/georgia-president-results

[2016]

I have no problem with these polls, Trump trying overturn Election results are having a devestating impact on GA races

This Poll is totally ridiculous - Period!

It's has a D + 4 Sample! Nowhere near is this true!

Party ID Nov 3rd per CNN Exits (Presidential Race)
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia
D: 34 %
R: 38 %
I: 22 %

SurveyUSA wants us to believe that the Runoff Elections have a more favorable D-leaning Electorate compared to the November 3rd General Election.

What are these frivolous Pollsters smoking here?

The party is actually even at 44-44 if look closer at the poll. It was Biden +4 which is within the margin of error and reasonable is some people don't want to admit voting for the loser.

We are not going to have a Party ID that is 44-44 I can guarantee you that. Also Exits in GA had Black Electorate at 29 % in November, SUSA says it's 32 % in January. This Polls is junk. Black Turnout will not be higher in a Runoff Election.

[SevenEleven]

Safe D, you heard it here first.

[Annatar]

As so many polls did this year, the party ID is to dem, fortunately we have exit polls recently done to compare it to, the poll has a party ID of D+1, the exit polls had it at R+4, is the electorate really going to be a D+1 electorate, I doubt it.

[Horus]

Aren't the low-propensity voters in this state mostly Democrats for obvious reasons? This isn't Iowa, lol.

Maybe not this time.

The energy is behind Warnock and has been for awhile, he plays very, very well and the attack ads aren't hurting him much because Loeffler is so despised. A lot of Trump voters are angry and think everything is rigged so they may not show.

Ossoff race is tilt R Warnock race is pure tossup tilt D if forced.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I've said it before, and it'll say it again, if polls are off, it will likely be a factor of unexpected turnout. At the end of the day, a good chunk of these people who say they won't be voting because they don't trust the system will probably come around to voting.

[wbrocks67]

I've said it before, and it'll say it again, if polls are off, it will likely be a factor of unexpected turnout. At the end of the day, a good chunk of these people who say they won't be voting because they don't trust the system will probably come around to voting.

Yeah, I mean I don't think there's too much to read into a Biden +4 electorate. It's quite possible that that is what the electorate will look like. It's also quite possible it goes the other way it's a high-R electorate. We just don't know.

The only thing we can say is that GA polls were actually pretty damn good this cycle so we can at least trust them a little bit more... but god only knows what turnout will look like here.

I thought the races would end up nearly identical but I guess it's possible Warnock runs decently ahead, he did have the best fav ratings and no one seems to really like Loeffler. I wish they did fav ratings here...

[Buzz]

Junk.

Not much else to say.

[KaiserDave]

Junk.

Not much else to say.

Your Georgia record isn't exactly stellar