Rate Illinois senate if Kinzinger runs?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IL is a slam dunk D state just like with Gavin Newsom and D's gaining seats in 2022, only 1 Dem incumbent in a blue wall state, Mark Udall,
in 2014/2018 midterms, the 2022 is the Senate map from 2016 that D's should have won the Prez Election and the Senate.

D's will win Cali and IL seats and DUCKWORTH is the most admired Female in IL since Lisa Madigan. When DURBIN retires Susana Mendoza will run or some other female

[Young Conservative]

I do not understand the logic of people on this website saying "throw a house seat away." Holding a house seat for life sounds sooo boring when it is a thankless job. Why not try for higher office and then go get a cushy lobbying job if you lose or go into business and make way more money?

[LtNOWIS]

I do not understand the logic of people on this website saying "throw a house seat away." Holding a house seat for life sounds sooo boring when it is a thankless job. Why not try for higher office and then go get a cushy lobbying job if you lose or go into business and make way more money?

Same reasons anyone keeps any job I guess. They like it, they think they're doing good work, they like the power and prestige, etc. Making several times more money is all well and good, but you don't get to hear your own voice on the Sunday shows. Kinzinger can be a "voice of reason against Trump" or whatever, guide the party towards a new future, and advance any other issues he likes, much better while he still has the seat.

As for the original question, it's a Safe D seat no mater what. Partisan lines have hardened and candidate quality only matters in marginal cases.

[It’s so Joever]

Likely D, as long as Duckworth doesn’t screw around.

[Non Swing Voter]

He can't win.  I wonder if he's being a reasonable Republican so Dems don't gerrymander him out in 2022.  I'd like to think there are still some decent Republicans left like him but I'm skeptical.

[Frenchrepublican]

He can't win.  I wonder if he's being a reasonable Republican so Dems don't gerrymander him out in 2022. I'd like to think there are still some decent Republicans left like him but I'm skeptical.

I have some serious doubts about that, Illinois is going to lose one seat, so obviously democrats in the legislature will try to eliminate one of the four GOP held seat and IL-16 is the most logical target as the areas it covers are close enough of Chicago to be sunk into a deep blue district and as IL-18/IL-15/IL-12 need to be keep intact if you want to turn IL-17 and IL-13 into dem leaning seats

[Non Swing Voter]

He can't win.  I wonder if he's being a reasonable Republican so Dems don't gerrymander him out in 2022.  I'd like to think there are still some decent Republicans left like him but I'm skeptical.

I have some serious doubts about that, Illinois is going to lose one seat, so obviously democrats in the legislature will try to eliminate one of the four GOP held seat and IL-16 is the most logical target as the areas it covers are close enough of Chicago to be sunk into a deep blue district and as IL-16/IL-15/IL-12 need to be keep intact if you want to turn IL-17 and IL-13 into dem leaning seats

I'm not saying it would work, but maybe he's trying to curry favor with Democrats by not being a complete lunatic like the rest of his party.  If I were a democrat gerrymandering there I'd find a way to gerrymander one of the deplorable out before him.  Maybe it's too hard to do logistically but it does give an incentive to skip him over.

[Frenchrepublican]

He can't win.  I wonder if he's being a reasonable Republican so Dems don't gerrymander him out in 2022. I'd like to think there are still some decent Republicans left like him but I'm skeptical.

I have some serious doubts about that, Illinois is going to lose one seat, so obviously democrats in the legislature will try to eliminate one of the four GOP held seat and IL-16 is the most logical target as the areas it covers are close enough of Chicago to be sunk into a deep blue district and as IL-18/IL-15/IL-12 need to be keep intact if you want to turn IL-17 and IL-13 into dem leaning seats

I'm not saying it would work, but maybe he's trying to curry favor with Democrats by not being a complete lunatic like the rest of his party.  If I were a democrat gerrymandering there I'd find a way to gerrymander one of the deplorable out before him.  Maybe it's too hard to do logistically but it does give an incentive to skip him over.

Illinois democrats don't care about saving Kinzinger. They will have two aims : firstly they will try to give a likely/safe seat to all their incumbents (notably Bustos and Underwood), secondly they will try to screw up Davis and turn IL-13 into a dem leaning seat.

As for Kinzinger, if his district is not nuked by democrats, he would probably end up against one of the 3 other GOP congressman (the one which would get his district eliminated) and considering his anti Trump comments he would probably lose the primary anyway.

[Suburbia]

He can't win.  I wonder if he's being a reasonable Republican so Dems don't gerrymander him out in 2022. I'd like to think there are still some decent Republicans left like him but I'm skeptical.

I have some serious doubts about that, Illinois is going to lose one seat, so obviously democrats in the legislature will try to eliminate one of the four GOP held seat and IL-16 is the most logical target as the areas it covers are close enough of Chicago to be sunk into a deep blue district and as IL-18/IL-15/IL-12 need to be keep intact if you want to turn IL-17 and IL-13 into dem leaning seats

I'm not saying it would work, but maybe he's trying to curry favor with Democrats by not being a complete lunatic like the rest of his party.  If I were a democrat gerrymandering there I'd find a way to gerrymander one of the deplorable out before him.  Maybe it's too hard to do logistically but it does give an incentive to skip him over.

Illinois democrats don't care about saving Kinzinger. They will have two aims : firstly they will try to give a likely/safe seat to all their incumbents (notably Bustos and Underwood), secondly they will try to screw up Davis and turn IL-13 into a dem leaning seat.

As for Kinzinger, if his district is not nuked by democrats, he would probably end up against one of the 3 other GOP congressman (the one which would get his district eliminated) and considering his anti Trump comments he would probably lose the primary anyway.

Even if Kinzinger is out in 2022, he could win a ILGOP primary.