MD-SEN 2022: Hogan not running

[S019]

Likely D, but Dems are going to be forced to burn lots of money here then (ugh)

[UncleSam]

If you read the article he basically says what Bullock said: I wanna run for president but am not 100% ruling out a senate bid.

I really don’t think he goes for it. I think he tried a long shot presidential bid in 2024 then, when he loses in the primary, retired to private life.

He’d get clobbered by Van Hollen anyway. If it were an open seat it might be a race to have on the edge of competitiveness.

[Spectator]

He wouldn’t win a general election anyway, probably wouldn’t even come within 10% of Van Hollen, but I doubt he’d win a primary. Maryland has closed party primaries and Trump would endorse his opponent out of spite.

[Suburbia]

This clown deserves all the humiliation he can get after running this state into the ground on the back of suburban racism for the past six years.

If he actually runs and does better than Steele in '06, then I'll switch my voter registration to Republican.

It's not really suburban racism, it is called common sense.

A lot of voters don't like the way Baltimore is being run, they feel it is dragging the state down. Hogan ran to fix those things. When cities do well, the states do well...

[If my soul was made of stone]

This clown deserves all the humiliation he can get after running this state into the ground on the back of suburban racism for the past six years.

If he actually runs and does better than Steele in '06, then I'll switch my voter registration to Republican.

It's not really suburban racism, it is called common sense.

A lot of voters don't like the way Baltimore is being run, they feel it is dragging the state down. Hogan ran to fix those things. When cities do well, the states do well...

There's a difference between acknowledging the deep systemic rot in the city's governance and wanting to deprive it of state assistance for no clear reason other than cultural grievances. If the Red Line wasn't cancelled and replaced with highway expansions in heavily white areas over racial animus, then what, pray tell, was the reason?

[Progressive Pessimist]

The only reason I can think of for Hogan to run is to keep himself relevant for an equally futile 2024 national run. He will be Bullocked/Bredesened but possibly do worse than either of them-I can't see Hogan winning over the Maryland Trumpists anymore.

Likely D, but Dems are going to be forced to burn lots of money here then (ugh)

But unfortunately this will indeed be a very negative side effect. Maybe it'll help convince the party to not spread themselves thin by wasting time contesting Florida, Iowa, and Ohio if they absolutely have to spend money here.

[MATTROSE94]

Likely D, but Dems are going to be forced to burn lots of money here then (ugh)

You are right. Unfortunately, that means that Chris Sununu, Adam Laxalt, Herschel Walker, Mark Brnovich, and possibly Tulsi Gabbard if she decides to run as a Trump aligned Independent Republican are pretty much assured of victory now.

[MATTROSE94]

Larry Hogan I think could win as an independent who caucus with the Democrats assuming that Joe Biden gets more unpopular by 2022.

[SnowLabrador]

He's not going to win, but he might divert some D money from more competitive races. For this reason, I hope he doesn't run.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Will Hogan run?
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=466328.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Steele is trying to run for Gov and Hogan wants to run for SEN as well, Hogan said there isn't any time table to run

[slothdem]

Maryland has the same left trend as Georgia and Virginia, but started out 30 and 20 points to the left of those states. It is the least winnable state for a Republican at the federal level. If Hogan were to run he could return Frederick and Anne Arundel County to the R column, but he would not come within 15 and possibly even 20 points of Van Hollen.

[Spectator]

Will Hogan run?
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=466328.0

I have my doubts he’d even make it out of the primary, and if he did, he still won’t get within 10% of Van Hollen.

[Spectator]

Maryland has the same left trend as Georgia and Virginia, but started out 30 and 20 points to the left of those states. It is the least winnable state for a Republican at the federal level. If Hogan were to run he could return Frederick and Anne Arundel County to the R column, but he would not come within 15 and possibly even 20 points of Van Hollen.

Anne Arundel might even be too far gone for a moderate Republican to win in a federal race. There’s not many D+15 places Republicans can win at the federal level.

[GregTheGreat657]

This clown deserves all the humiliation he can get after running this state into the ground on the back of suburban racism for the past six years.

If he actually runs and does better than Steele in '06, then I'll switch my voter registration to Republican.

Bruh. Larry Hogan is no racist.

[Tekken_Guy]

He could be a reverse Phil Bredesen. He won’t win but he could turn a 25 point loss into a 10 point one. And he might be able to lay out a trap for Democrats to throw away money in a deep red state.

[Spectator]

He could be a reverse Phil Bredesen. He won’t win but he could turn a 25 point loss into a 10 point one. And he might be able to lay out a trap for Democrats to throw away money in a deep red state.

I don’t buy the “money trap” argument anymore. Democrats won’t lose NH, AZ, NV or GA for a lack of money. Look at the Democratic fundraising numbers compared to the Republicans. It will be for other reasons.

[Tekken_Guy]

He could be a reverse Phil Bredesen. He won’t win but he could turn a 25 point loss into a 10 point one. And he might be able to lay out a trap for Democrats to throw away money in a deep red state.

I don’t buy the “money trap” argument anymore. Democrats won’t lose NH, AZ, NV or GA for a lack of money. Look at the Democratic fundraising numbers compared to the Republicans. It will be for other reasons.

Well they have a finite amount of resources they can use. Any money spent on MD is money that could easily have been spent elsewhere.

[President Johnson]

Steve Bullock and Phil Bredesen say hello.

He wouldn't stand a chance in a general election for a national election. Unfortunately, his political career ends here since he's also DOA in a presidential primary.

[Skye]

He'd be a serious underdog to put it mildly.

[Spectator]

He could be a reverse Phil Bredesen. He won’t win but he could turn a 25 point loss into a 10 point one. And he might be able to lay out a trap for Democrats to throw away money in a deep red state.

I don’t buy the “money trap” argument anymore. Democrats won’t lose NH, AZ, NV or GA for a lack of money. Look at the Democratic fundraising numbers compared to the Republicans. It will be for other reasons.

Well they have a finite amount of resources they can use. Any money spent on MD is money that could easily have been spent elsewhere.

Not gonna matter. The only Senate race Democrats have lost due to a lack of comparative resources in the past decade was Florida in 2018.  That race was obviously an anomaly.m with the unlimited resources of the Republican.

[Tekken_Guy]

Steve Bullock and Phil Bredesen say hello.

He wouldn't stand a chance in a general election for a national election. Unfortunately, his political career ends here since he's also DOA in a presidential primary.

Bredesen still only lost by 10 instead of the usual 25-point loss in TN.

[Spectator]

Steve Bullock and Phil Bredesen say hello.

He wouldn't stand a chance in a general election for a national election. Unfortunately, his political career ends here since he's also DOA in a presidential primary.

Bredesen still only lost by 10 instead of the usual 25-point loss in TN.

If Hogan were to overperform as much as Bredesen did, which was by 15%, he’d still lose by 18 points.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Honestly, the biggest issue for Hogan isn't the partisan lean, it's that the two Senators are essentially Generic D and pretty well-regarded. It might have been possible to overcome the partisan lean with a controversial, divisive, or corrupt Senator, but not with Cardin or Van Hollen.

[Suburbia]

Honestly, the biggest issue for Hogan isn't the partisan lean, it's that the two Senators are essentially Generic D and pretty well-regarded. It might have been possible to overcome the partisan lean with a controversial, divisive, or corrupt Senator, but not with Cardin or Van Hollen.

Someone like Hogan can beat a Menendez type....

Likely/Safe D