Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor (user search)
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July 01, 2022, 09:43:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor (search mode)
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Author Topic: Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor  (Read 16689 times)
EastwoodS
Atlas Politician
Jr. Member
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Posts: 994


« on: January 23, 2021, 01:45:49 AM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen

Just to clarify, this is the party I think is favored in each individual race. I don't expect Republicans to win all the competitive races.

Fair map. Almost mine exact.

If you think Rs are gonna sweep every race, you are kidding yourself

I do think NH and NV will vote D as of now. Key word: Almost
Still might be too optimistic, but I wouldn’t be surprised by this considering Biden’s approval rating is already 55% in D+14 registration polls...Reuters. And we know the 2022 midterms won’t be showing D+14 exit polls; they’ll be lucky to even have a plurality in them.
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EastwoodS
Atlas Politician
Jr. Member
*****
Posts: 994


« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2022, 10:15:44 PM »

Another change (for senate)

AZ: Tossup -> Lean D

This means that I now project the Democrats to keep control of the senate after the 2022 elections.

My hunch says 2018 in reverse. Democrats look poised to lose lots of house seats, but I think Republicans are messing up in the senate, and I feel like a lot of losses will be in big states that don't have competitive senate seats.

Democrats gain PA and Republicans narrowly win NV effectively counteracting each gain, although Democrats can win NV which would than result in a net gain of 1 seat.
So true especially with how unpopular Democrats are, along with Biden
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