Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor (user search)
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May 21, 2022, 06:00:25 PM
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  Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor (search mode)
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Author Topic: Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor  (Read 13513 times)
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,193
United States


« on: January 21, 2021, 10:11:12 PM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen

Just to clarify, this is the party I think is favored in each individual race. I don't expect Republicans to win all the competitive races.

Fair map. Almost mine exact.
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,193
United States


« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2021, 05:32:54 PM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen

Just to clarify, this is the party I think is favored in each individual race. I don't expect Republicans to win all the competitive races.

Fair map. Almost mine exact.

If you think Rs are gonna sweep every race, you are kidding yourself

I do think NH and NV will vote D as of now. Key word: Almost
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,193
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2021, 10:50:37 PM »

Update on this year's races and the overall outlook for 2022.

CA-Recall 2021: Likely No (D)

Despite some polling suggesting the race tightening, and Republicans disproportionately energized, I highly expect Newsom to be retained. The margin will still probably be a bad sign for Democrats in 2022, but I think a final push by Democrats in the last few weeks will be more than enough to save him. And even then, is it even guaranteed a Republican would win the 2nd ballot? Elder is currently leading, but there's a ton who say their "undecided" (aka Newsom supporters) and whether they vote on that question at all or coalesce behind a Democrat would make a decent difference.

VA 2021: Lean D

I had previously thought of this as Likely D, but even the polling has been surprisingly close. I do think that Virginia has trended so far to the left that it's still a long shot, but a narrow win by Youngkin is possible if everything goes right. I expect McAuliffe to win by more like 4-7.

NJ 2021: Likely D

Not much to say, Phil Murphy should win pretty easily, but not in a landslide. I don't think Phil Murphy is getting any crossover appeal and New Jersey still has a large base of Republicans (typically low 40's), so I rate it Likely D just in case a freak accident were to occur in an off-year with the disproportionate turnout.

As far as 2022 goes, I just want to chime in to say this: We are at a crossroads in regards to Joe Biden's approval. If it slips any further than it has now, it is overwhelmingly likely Republicans will take both chambers of Congress in 2022. Even without that factor, the enthusiasm factor always helps the out party in midterms. If the approval stays the same, I still think they'd lose both chambers, but it would be limited losses that they could more easily get back in 2024 (for the House). My full expectation is that (as people are probably sick of me telling) the polls will be very unreliable in terms of predicting margins in races. I expect Democrats to lead the generic ballot for most of the way, probably all the way through. Democrats will probably lead in the competitive Biden +1/2 states. In the Senate particularly, since all the competitive races are in those "barely Biden" states I think people are going to be very misled if the polling is wrong again, and they could all go one way at the end and give Republicans the 54 seats that are possible. The House I think will be "better" for the forecasters but still not great. It's much easier for the Democrat hacks in the election punditry to blame it on gerrymandering (as they will) so there'll be a greater expectation of that chamber going Republican. But beyond that there are significant differences in how competitive districts lean, whereas all the Senate races are in states that have similar partisan makeups, so I think it's harder to get as much wrong.

The thing about 2022 is that Republicans don't need a "red wave" to win both chambers. They simply need a slightly better than 2020 result. But a red wave would put the Republicans in a good position to hold both chambers into 2024, where they could win the presidency and get a trifecta (or, in the event they lose narrowly, stop a President Harris from doing much). In the Senate, if Democrats don't limit their losses or gain a seat or two in 2022, it is VERY unlikely they'll get it in 2024 when they'll be defending WV, MT, and OH as well as many other purple states. A red ripple could mean Democrats take back the House in 2024 with a good year and at least keep the Senate close. So I see 2022 as an important midterm for the medium-term power struggle of this country, but it might not feel significant in the short-term if there aren't many surprises.

Very intriguing and well put together post. I'm impressed.
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,193
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2021, 10:06:34 PM »

While I'm at it, here's governors. I'm more likely to be cautious early on (not use safe as much) when it comes to these races.



Republicans: 31 (+4)
Democrats: 19 (-4)

Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NM, VA
Tilt D:
Tilt R: MI, NV
Lean R: AZ, GA, KS, WI
Likely R: FL, IA, TX

I always assume the incumbent runs if they're eligible. This may change some things, especially in New England. By far the most vulnerable incumbent is Laura Kelly, followed by Tony Evers. The best targets for Democrats are Arizona and Georgia, but that's about all that's available for picking.

Wow. I have Nevada as Tilt D but aside from that this looks quite similar to my map. I have Michigan as the closest state with a 0.4% margin for the GOP.
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,193
United States


« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2022, 03:53:47 AM »

https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/51llN3.png

https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/gkN2.png
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