Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor

[Mr.Phips]

While I'm at it, here's governors. I'm more likely to be cautious early on (not use safe as much) when it comes to these races.



Republicans: 32 (+5)
Democrats: 18 (-5)

Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NM, VA
Tilt D:
Tilt R: MI, NV
Lean R: AZ, GA, KS, WI
Likely R: FL, IA, TX

I always assume the incumbent runs if they're eligible. This may change some things, especially in New England. By far the most vulnerable incumbent is Laura Kelly, followed by Tony Evers. The best targets for Democrats are Arizona and Georgia, but that's about all that's available for picking.

I think you failed to give Dems MD in your governorship count, which would make it R+4.

[Mr.Phips]

While I'm at it, here's governors. I'm more likely to be cautious early on (not use safe as much) when it comes to these races.



Republicans: 31 (+4)
Democrats: 19 (-4)

Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NM, VA
Tilt D:
Tilt R: MI, NV
Lean R: AZ, GA, KS, WI
Likely R: FL, IA, TX

I always assume the incumbent runs if they're eligible. This may change some things, especially in New England. By far the most vulnerable incumbent is Laura Kelly, followed by Tony Evers. The best targets for Democrats are Arizona and Georgia, but that's about all that's available for picking.

Wow. I have Nevada as Tilt D but aside from that this looks quite similar to my map. I have Michigan as the closest state with a 0.4% margin for the GOP.

Dems losing Whitmer would be devastating.  She is one of their future national candidates.