Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These Predictions are based on Ducey and Adam LAXALT running and neither of them even said they were running. The WI rating is so wrong, Ron Johnson barely beat Russ Feingold and got help from Gary Johnson voters and so did Pat Toomey

Ron Johnson and Pat Toomey seat are gonna get blanched and NC is at stake

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2022 is gonna be base Election not an R wave, PA, WI, NV, AZ and NH will go D, watch you will see

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just to note the 291/47 haven't been cracked since 2016 Benghazi Hillary and Spoiler Gary Johnson and Nate Silver 538 is the 278 blue wall, it's not my methodology, it's his

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D AZ, NV, NH
Pure Tossups WI, PA, NC and IA if Grassley retires
Likely R FL


Everything else is safe

Gov races

Likely D CA, CO, CT, HI, IL, ME, MI, MN, NV, NM, NY, OR, RI
Tossups AZ, KS, MD, NH if Sununu runs for Senate, PA, WI
Likely R FL, GA, IA, MA, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely: Not competitive at this point, but has the potential to become competitive

Lean: Competitive but one party has an advantage

Tilt: Competitive but one party has a slight advantage of

Toss-up : The most competitive races which either party has a good chance of winning


SENATE



GOVERNOR

GA-GOV: Toss-up -> Lean D; GA-SEN: Toss-up -> Lean D, rest stays the same. GA is not safe, but that election was more than an ominous sign for GA Republicans, and I don’t think it’s wise to expect so-called 'moderate' suburbanites/exurbanites who turned out for a runoff to vote out a generic R in order to give Biden a trifecta to 'snap back' in 2022. It’s possible that turnout patterns will be more R-friendly, but even with that in mind, it’s hard to see Kemp holding on or Warnock losing before some other vulnerable D incumbents.

Still think WI is Lean R, NO double NO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen

Just to clarify, this is the party I think is favored in each individual race. I don't expect Republicans to win all the competitive races.

Fair map. Almost mine exact.

If you think Rs are gonna sweep every race, you are kidding yourself

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sandoval isn't running and the Rs don't have a bench in NV

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ah too bad Ducey and Sandoval aren't running, Ducey just announced he isn't running in 2022 no R dream map

NH is the only pickup shot for Rs, if Sununu runs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

51/49 SENATE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not my final map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ben Downing can beat Charlie Baker

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cali recall is a Tossup polls today show NEWSOM recalled

VA GOV IS A TOSSUP TOO TMAC MAY LOSE

NJ SAFE D



This could be 2021/2022 map


We need Prediction maps

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI isn't Lean R Cook changed the rating to Tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ going R no

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That map will never happen D's loosing MI, Whitmer is ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gut ratings.
By '22 Biden's approvals are still not good and hover maybe a point or two above where they are now.
Chamber is flipped to Republicans, GOP declares massive victory, Dems see it as a very weak rebuke.
I am not confident in AZ and NVs ratings.

This map only happens if Biden stays at 41 lol I don't care if Biden is at 25 OZ iisnt beating FETTERMAN


I am an optimistic not Doomer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only doing the Senate right now.

Kelly was leading by 1 and Johnson was tied against BARNES

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear can win reelection

Kelly of KS isnt doomed what poll has her behinfld in fact the last poll had her up 5 in a Clarity poll, Biden won't be at 41 percent on Nov 22

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OR is going Independent Betsy Johnson is gonna beat any D

Maggie Hassan is ahead and So it Mark Kelly and Whitmer leads by  10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV polls have always overstated R trends and it's 4/6 pts well within the margin of error

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is leading in 2 straight polls 50/47 and 42/38 and GA is headed to a Runoff I know Election Guy wants AZ to be Lean R but Kelly is popular even among Rs in the state he's not losing and neither is Warnock Walker is short of 50 to avoid a Runoff or t was 47/44

CCM is up by 9 pts Rs aren't sweeping everything, plse Election Guy


My Predictions

AZ Kelly 52/48 v Masters
GA Warnock 51/49 def Walker in Runoff
LA Mixon 51/48 def Kennedy in Runoff
NV CCM 52/48 def Laxalt
NC Cheri B 52/48 def Pat McCrory
PA Fetterman 51/48 def Oz
WI Barnes 51/49 def Johnson


304/234 blue wall as of now it's a 54)46 Senate not sure yet about FL, OH

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is not gonna be the map Whitmer is leading anyways and Kelly and CCM and SISOLAK have surged

Betsy Johnson is gonna win OR Gov she is a Dem/INDY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here's some Senate margin predictions, 9 months out.

AZ - Republican: 52.5%, Kelly: 47.0%
CO - Bennet: 52%, Republican: 46%
GA - Walker: 52.0%, Warnock: 47.5%
NV - Laxalt: 50%, Cortez-Masto: 46%
NH - Hassan: 49%, Republican: 48%
NC - Republican: 54%, Democrat: 44.5%
PA - Republican: 52.5%, Democrat: 46.5%
WI - Johnson: 53%, Barnes: 45.5%

Some other Likely/Safe races for fun

FL - Rubio: 55%, Democrat: 43.5%
IL - Duckworth: 54.5%, Republican: 44.5%
MD w/Hogan - Democrat: 55%, Hogan: 44%
NY - Schumer: 58%, Republican: 40%
OH - Republican: 56%, Ryan: 43%
WA - Murray: 56%, Republican: 44%

In an R+3-7 environment, the vast majority of traditional toss-up states are not super close, even with Democratic incumbents. The consensus by the pundits and election community I believe is either convinced the environment is not Republican-friendly or infected with wishful thinking once again. Most people based on their predictions expect Republicans to improve maybe 2-4 points from 2020. I'm expecting a 6-12 point improvement.

I like how Rs predict a landslide against Ryan and there has been zero polling in OH and NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Shapiro, Evers, Mills, SISOLAK and Whitmer aren't losing even in a miderm Rs aren't winning 31 Gov dream on