AL: Shelby retires. R wins
AK: Lean R, but D's might take it. Murkowski is vulnerable for a primary challenge, and that won't make the general easier. If she loses the primary, all possibilities are open. I expect the environment to be tough, but internal division and Alaska's distance might make it considerably more left to the nation, perhaps D+10 which could be enough.
AZ: Lean D. I think Kelly is going to be a strong incumbent, who has the capacity to survive the red wave.
AR: Safe R
CA: Safe D but with stronger opposition than expected from the progressive wing.
CO: Likely D. It's going to be a lot closer, but Bennett is likely fine. They're not fond of the Trump era GOP, and it will keep trend D.
CT: Safe D
FL: Likely R. I suspect this will be a blow out. Tough environment for D's, strong incumbent(s), and most importantly a weak bench + organization
GA: toss-up. Let's await the results of the run-offs before we can make a guess, but I believe GA will be to the left of the national average, and Abrams might run again for governor.
HI: Safe D. Even Tulsi has no shot here.
ID: Safe R
IL: Safe D. Strong incumbent will keep it safe even in a R+10 environment
IN: Safe R
IA: Lean R. (Incumbent could retire now. Finkenauer/Scholten/Vilsack will likely not win in a tough environment, but this race might be open. Likely with Chuck
KS: Safe R
KY: Safe R
LA: Safe R
MD: Likely D. Hogan and a very favourable environment, could make this similar to MA 2010 or IL 2010. Polarization and racial divide would make it more unlikely than in those cases, but this far ahead, not safe. I could be seeing noise though
MO: Safe R
NV: Toss-up. CCM might be vulnerable in the environment I expect, but she'll do better than the national average.
NH: Lean R, possibly even likely R. Sununu will likely win. If Sununu doesn't run, i still think an Ayotte tier candidate is favoured. Hassan isn't exactly a strong incumbent, and midterms + this environment + (very) strong challenger will make it tough to overcome.
NY: Safe D but just like in CA i expect a primary challenge to gain traction. AOC won't do it though.
NC: Open election (and now was the moment to retire). Lean R with the environment I expect.
ND: Safe R
OH: Likely R. Could become safe, but I want to know who is going to run for the Democrats
OK: Safe R
OR: Likely D. I won't rule out an upset this far out, but the GOP has a weak bench, this state is hostile to them, and Wyden is probably fine. Borderline MD likely tier
PA: Open election, and Fetterman is a strong candidate. Democrats have several alternatives. Toss-up, but might be lean R because of the environment.
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
UT: Likely R. Almost certainly going to trend left in an tough environment, and I see some candidates who might make this a bit closer. It's borderline safe though.
VT: Lean D. This might be very vulnerable in a tough environment, esp. if Leahy retires and Phil Scott runs.
WA: Likely D. Similar to Oregon's rating. This might be D+8/+9 at the end, but there is potential for an upset, as Murray is a weak incumbent.
WI: Lean R. Could be toss-up, likely R or even be Safe R. I think the GOP keeps this one
Changes:
Alaska: Lean R -> Likely R/Murkowski
Arizona: Lean D -> Toss-up
Iowa: Lean R -> Safe R
Maryland: Likely D -> Safe D
New Hampshire: Lean R -> Toss-up
North Carolina: Lean R -> Likely R
Oregon: Likely D -> Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up -> Lean D
Vermont: Lean D -> Safe D
Same:
CO: Likely D
FL: Likely R
GA: toss-up
NV: toss-up
OH: Likely R
UT: Likely R
WA: Likely D
WI: Lean R
For toss-ups: gun to my head.
Arizona and Nevada flip to the Republicans
Democrats gain a pick-up in Pennsylvania
Georgia and New Hampshire stay D.
which would translate into 51-49 majority for Republicans.
Republicans will win the house as expected, with probably around 10-15 gains, although Democrats will probably also make some gains but I expect the overall change in general to be around 10-15 seats, and remember Republicans only need 5 seats i think?
For margins:
NC, FL, OH: high single digits R, perhaps even double digits
AZ and NV somewhat around R+2/R+3
WI R+4/R+5
GA nailbiter
NH D+2/D+3
PA i've classified as lean because I think the Democrats are favoured but probably around D+3. I feel like R's are messing up here.
In NC R's have a strong candidate and I feel like Biden in particular has problems in this state/area. VA also went to the R's for governor last year for example. Beesley doesn't seem a good/strong candidate with crossover appeal, while Budd might be one of the best recruits for the R's in the senate this year. R's seem less divided here, than in states like GA.
NV has a strong recruit too for the R's, and AZ/NV seems to be moving away from Biden. WI has incumbency advantage for Johnson and the state is moving away from Biden too. I hope Barnes can win but chances are low as Democrats will be mostly on the defence, esp. in states like GA which will become a highly nationalized race with much attention and that will require lots of resources, with on top of that probably the most followed/expensive governor's race too this year (although one could argue the PA senate race will be highly targetted by both camps too, esp. given recent events in PA).
