Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor (user search)
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: December 02, 2020, 02:09:16 PM »

I'm just going to do Senate for now because Governor races can be very difficult to predict early on.

Early 2022 Senate Ratings



To start off, I'm going to take what we've learned about 2020 results and assume a Lean GOP environment, not even a GOP wave as that's too premature, but history suggests at least a Lean R environment is likely.

1. Arizona (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Odds are, Kelly will get a better opponent than McSally in a state where Republicans already (very narrowly) won the congressional vote in 2020. He is highly vulnerable in a Lean R environment, after only winning by 2-3 against McSally in 2020, but he did overperform both Biden and House Dems which is why I think it's a toss-up and not Lean R. ~60% chance it flips GOP
2. Nevada (Toss-Up/Tilt R): As a state that votes to the left of Arizona, one might wonder why I'm rating it the same way. A few reasons, 1) Cortez-Masto performed like an average Democrat in 2016 2) The state has been trending Republican over the past few cycles (In 2018 and 2020 Democrats underperformed the national swing) 3) She's vulnerable to a turnout drop with younger voters and minorities that could disproportionately hurt Democrats. However, it still remains to be seen whether GOP can keep their gains with Latinos and certain Asians and if they can nominate a good candidate. ~55% chance it flips GOP
3. Pennsylvania (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Largely due to Toomey's retirement, and the fact that this state has been consistently slightly less GOP than Wisconsin in 2018 and 2020. But, GOP already winning the House vote in 2020 doesn't bode well for Democrats in a Lean R environment. ~65% chance it stays GOP
4. New Hampshire (Lean D): In 2020, there was a decent swing to the left in New Hampshire, however, Hassan is highly vulnerable depending on the opponent she gets. If it's Sununu, this race changes drastically. This is a state that can swing double digits in 2 years pretty easily. But she starts out with a small advantage as an incumbent in a state that leans towards her party. ~70% chance it stays Dem
5. Georgia (Lean R): This rating assumes Loeffler wins since that is my prediction right now. If not, I will change it to toss-up but tilt R. Definitely a toss-up otherwise but Republicans should be able to win narrowly in an R-leaning environment, even Loefller who is subpar. It just remains to be seen if the trends can overpower the environment. I lean towards no, as usually the opposition party claws back with some previous defections in favorable midterms. ~70% chance it stays GOP.
6. North Carolina (Lean R): Burr retiring is actually good for the party but the candidate could be anybody. But, anybody should be able to keep or outperform the margins done by Republicans in 2020. ~75% chance it stays GOP
7. Wisconsin (Lean R): It remains to be determined if Johnson runs for re-election, but assuming he does he should be able to win on the environment alone. He's polarizing and "controversial" but he's won before when he was declared dead against the rerun of Feingold and should be able to win considering Republicans already won the congressional vote by 3% in 2020. ~80% chance it stays GOP.
8. Alaska (Likely R): There is a good chance of silly nonsense happening with Murkowski in her primary, as it always seems to happen, but there is a minimal chance that it has enough positive impact for Democrats in the general. But the state has been trending Democratic. ~90% chance it stays GOP.
9. Florida (Likely R): Rubio already overperformed for a Republican in 2016 against a 'rising star' opponent. He should have no problem winning easily in 2020 with the trends of the last few cycles. ~95% chance it stays GOP
10. Colorado (Likely D): In what would've been a competitive race cycles ago, Colorado posted the 2nd strongest Dem swing of any state in 2020, and is one of the most college-educated states in the nation. It flipping is now a longshot that can only be done if absolutely everything goes right for Republicans. Bennet should be able to do better than he did even in 2016. ~95% chance it stays Dem

Everything else is safe, or if it does become non-safe it'll be very likely. It'll be interesting to look back and see how accurate this assessment is. I've looked back at my early 2018 guesses and they were okay but had some glaring misses (like Heitkamp easily winning in early 2017). I think these should be more accurate as these senate elections have become all too predictable.
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2020, 10:22:04 AM »

I'm just going to do Senate for now because Governor races can be very difficult to predict early on.

Early 2022 Senate Ratings



To start off, I'm going to take what we've learned about 2020 results and assume a Lean GOP environment, not even a GOP wave as that's too premature, but history suggests at least a Lean R environment is likely.

1. Arizona (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Odds are, Kelly will get a better opponent than McSally in a state where Republicans already (very narrowly) won the congressional vote in 2020. He is highly vulnerable in a Lean R environment, after only winning by 2-3 against McSally in 2020, but he did overperform both Biden and House Dems which is why I think it's a toss-up and not Lean R. ~60% chance it flips GOP
2. Nevada (Toss-Up/Tilt R): As a state that votes to the left of Arizona, one might wonder why I'm rating it the same way. A few reasons, 1) Cortez-Masto performed like an average Democrat in 2016 2) The state has been trending Republican over the past few cycles (In 2018 and 2020 Democrats underperformed the national swing) 3) She's vulnerable to a turnout drop with younger voters and minorities that could disproportionately hurt Democrats. However, it still remains to be seen whether GOP can keep their gains with Latinos and certain Asians and if they can nominate a good candidate. ~55% chance it flips GOP
3. Pennsylvania (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Largely due to Toomey's retirement, and the fact that this state has been consistently slightly less GOP than Wisconsin in 2018 and 2020. But, GOP already winning the House vote in 2020 doesn't bode well for Democrats in a Lean R environment. ~65% chance it stays GOP
4. New Hampshire (Lean D): In 2020, there was a decent swing to the left in New Hampshire, however, Hassan is highly vulnerable depending on the opponent she gets. If it's Sununu, this race changes drastically. This is a state that can swing double digits in 2 years pretty easily. But she starts out with a small advantage as an incumbent in a state that leans towards her party. ~70% chance it stays Dem
5. Georgia (Lean R): This rating assumes Loeffler wins since that is my prediction right now. If not, I will change it to toss-up but tilt R. Definitely a toss-up otherwise but Republicans should be able to win narrowly in an R-leaning environment, even Loefller who is subpar. It just remains to be seen if the trends can overpower the environment. I lean towards no, as usually the opposition party claws back with some previous defections in favorable midterms. ~70% chance it stays GOP.
6. North Carolina (Lean R): Burr retiring is actually good for the party but the candidate could be anybody. But, anybody should be able to keep or outperform the margins done by Republicans in 2020. ~75% chance it stays GOP
7. Wisconsin (Lean R): It remains to be determined if Johnson runs for re-election, but assuming he does he should be able to win on the environment alone. He's polarizing and "controversial" but he's won before when he was declared dead against the rerun of Feingold and should be able to win considering Republicans already won the congressional vote by 3% in 2020. ~80% chance it stays GOP.
8. Alaska (Likely R): There is a good chance of silly nonsense happening with Murkowski in her primary, as it always seems to happen, but there is a minimal chance that it has enough positive impact for Democrats in the general. But the state has been trending Democratic. ~90% chance it stays GOP.
9. Florida (Likely R): Rubio already overperformed for a Republican in 2016 against a 'rising star' opponent. He should have no problem winning easily in 2020 with the trends of the last few cycles. ~95% chance it stays GOP
10. Colorado (Likely D): In what would've been a competitive race cycles ago, Colorado posted the 2nd strongest Dem swing of any state in 2020, and is one of the most college-educated states in the nation. It flipping is now a longshot that can only be done if absolutely everything goes right for Republicans. Bennet should be able to do better than he did even in 2016. ~95% chance it stays Dem

Everything else is safe, or if it does become non-safe it'll be very likely. It'll be interesting to look back and see how accurate this assessment is. I've looked back at my early 2018 guesses and they were okay but had some glaring misses (like Heitkamp easily winning in early 2017). I think these should be more accurate as these senate elections have become all too predictable.
Switch Pa and GA.

Also Alaska isn't a primary its a weird RCV + California system mix.

I basically view PA and GA as the same chance. Just a slight dip for Pennsylvania initially because there won't be an incumbent. In a year from now, we could be talking about Lean R PA and Toss-Up Georgia. I'm not really concerned about it right now. As far as Alaska, I'm not too informed on their electoral systems but I just think Murkowski's bad relationship with the R base in Alaska has the potential to cause issues regardless of what's in place.
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ElectionsGuy
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2021, 07:23:14 AM »

I'm just going to do Senate for now because Governor races can be very difficult to predict early on.

Early 2022 Senate Ratings



To start off, I'm going to take what we've learned about 2020 results and assume a Lean GOP environment, not even a GOP wave as that's too premature, but history suggests at least a Lean R environment is likely.

1. Arizona (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Odds are, Kelly will get a better opponent than McSally in a state where Republicans already (very narrowly) won the congressional vote in 2020. He is highly vulnerable in a Lean R environment, after only winning by 2-3 against McSally in 2020, but he did overperform both Biden and House Dems which is why I think it's a toss-up and not Lean R. ~60% chance it flips GOP
2. Nevada (Toss-Up/Tilt R): As a state that votes to the left of Arizona, one might wonder why I'm rating it the same way. A few reasons, 1) Cortez-Masto performed like an average Democrat in 2016 2) The state has been trending Republican over the past few cycles (In 2018 and 2020 Democrats underperformed the national swing) 3) She's vulnerable to a turnout drop with younger voters and minorities that could disproportionately hurt Democrats. However, it still remains to be seen whether GOP can keep their gains with Latinos and certain Asians and if they can nominate a good candidate. ~55% chance it flips GOP
3. Pennsylvania (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Largely due to Toomey's retirement, and the fact that this state has been consistently slightly less GOP than Wisconsin in 2018 and 2020. But, GOP already winning the House vote in 2020 doesn't bode well for Democrats in a Lean R environment. ~65% chance it stays GOP
4. New Hampshire (Lean D): In 2020, there was a decent swing to the left in New Hampshire, however, Hassan is highly vulnerable depending on the opponent she gets. If it's Sununu, this race changes drastically. This is a state that can swing double digits in 2 years pretty easily. But she starts out with a small advantage as an incumbent in a state that leans towards her party. ~70% chance it stays Dem
5. Georgia (Lean R): This rating assumes Loeffler wins since that is my prediction right now. If not, I will change it to toss-up but tilt R. Definitely a toss-up otherwise but Republicans should be able to win narrowly in an R-leaning environment, even Loefller who is subpar. It just remains to be seen if the trends can overpower the environment. I lean towards no, as usually the opposition party claws back with some previous defections in favorable midterms. ~70% chance it stays GOP.
6. North Carolina (Lean R): Burr retiring is actually good for the party but the candidate could be anybody. But, anybody should be able to keep or outperform the margins done by Republicans in 2020. ~75% chance it stays GOP
7. Wisconsin (Lean R): It remains to be determined if Johnson runs for re-election, but assuming he does he should be able to win on the environment alone. He's polarizing and "controversial" but he's won before when he was declared dead against the rerun of Feingold and should be able to win considering Republicans already won the congressional vote by 3% in 2020. ~80% chance it stays GOP.
8. Alaska (Likely R): There is a good chance of silly nonsense happening with Murkowski in her primary, as it always seems to happen, but there is a minimal chance that it has enough positive impact for Democrats in the general. But the state has been trending Democratic. ~90% chance it stays GOP.
9. Florida (Likely R): Rubio already overperformed for a Republican in 2016 against a 'rising star' opponent. He should have no problem winning easily in 2020 with the trends of the last few cycles. ~95% chance it stays GOP
10. Colorado (Likely D): In what would've been a competitive race cycles ago, Colorado posted the 2nd strongest Dem swing of any state in 2020, and is one of the most college-educated states in the nation. It flipping is now a longshot that can only be done if absolutely everything goes right for Republicans. Bennet should be able to do better than he did even in 2016. ~95% chance it stays Dem

Everything else is safe, or if it does become non-safe it'll be very likely. It'll be interesting to look back and see how accurate this assessment is. I've looked back at my early 2018 guesses and they were okay but had some glaring misses (like Heitkamp easily winning in early 2017). I think these should be more accurate as these senate elections have become all too predictable.

Georgia gets shifted up to the #2 spot and is Toss-Up/Tilt R with about 55% chance of a flip. It would be #1 based on PVI and candidate performance, but adding in trends and my bias in predicting Georgia shifts it slightly more left.
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2021, 01:36:28 PM »

Update on this year's races and the overall outlook for 2022.

CA-Recall 2021: Likely No (D)

Despite some polling suggesting the race tightening, and Republicans disproportionately energized, I highly expect Newsom to be retained. The margin will still probably be a bad sign for Democrats in 2022, but I think a final push by Democrats in the last few weeks will be more than enough to save him. And even then, is it even guaranteed a Republican would win the 2nd ballot? Elder is currently leading, but there's a ton who say their "undecided" (aka Newsom supporters) and whether they vote on that question at all or coalesce behind a Democrat would make a decent difference.

VA 2021: Lean D

I had previously thought of this as Likely D, but even the polling has been surprisingly close. I do think that Virginia has trended so far to the left that it's still a long shot, but a narrow win by Youngkin is possible if everything goes right. I expect McAuliffe to win by more like 4-7.

NJ 2021: Likely D

Not much to say, Phil Murphy should win pretty easily, but not in a landslide. I don't think Phil Murphy is getting any crossover appeal and New Jersey still has a large base of Republicans (typically low 40's), so I rate it Likely D just in case a freak accident were to occur in an off-year with the disproportionate turnout.

As far as 2022 goes, I just want to chime in to say this: We are at a crossroads in regards to Joe Biden's approval. If it slips any further than it has now, it is overwhelmingly likely Republicans will take both chambers of Congress in 2022. Even without that factor, the enthusiasm factor always helps the out party in midterms. If the approval stays the same, I still think they'd lose both chambers, but it would be limited losses that they could more easily get back in 2024 (for the House). My full expectation is that (as people are probably sick of me telling) the polls will be very unreliable in terms of predicting margins in races. I expect Democrats to lead the generic ballot for most of the way, probably all the way through. Democrats will probably lead in the competitive Biden +1/2 states. In the Senate particularly, since all the competitive races are in those "barely Biden" states I think people are going to be very misled if the polling is wrong again, and they could all go one way at the end and give Republicans the 54 seats that are possible. The House I think will be "better" for the forecasters but still not great. It's much easier for the Democrat hacks in the election punditry to blame it on gerrymandering (as they will) so there'll be a greater expectation of that chamber going Republican. But beyond that there are significant differences in how competitive districts lean, whereas all the Senate races are in states that have similar partisan makeups, so I think it's harder to get as much wrong.

The thing about 2022 is that Republicans don't need a "red wave" to win both chambers. They simply need a slightly better than 2020 result. But a red wave would put the Republicans in a good position to hold both chambers into 2024, where they could win the presidency and get a trifecta (or, in the event they lose narrowly, stop a President Harris from doing much). In the Senate, if Democrats don't limit their losses or gain a seat or two in 2022, it is VERY unlikely they'll get it in 2024 when they'll be defending WV, MT, and OH as well as many other purple states. A red ripple could mean Democrats take back the House in 2024 with a good year and at least keep the Senate close. So I see 2022 as an important midterm for the medium-term power struggle of this country, but it might not feel significant in the short-term if there aren't many surprises.
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2021, 11:13:31 AM »

As far as 2022 goes, I just want to chime in to say this: We are at a crossroads in regards to Joe Biden's approval. If it slips any further than it has now, it is overwhelmingly likely Republicans will take both chambers of Congress in 2022. Even without that factor, the enthusiasm factor always helps the out party in midterms. If the approval stays the same, I still think they'd lose both chambers, but it would be limited losses that they could more easily get back in 2024 (for the House). My full expectation is that (as people are probably sick of me telling) the polls will be very unreliable in terms of predicting margins in races. I expect Democrats to lead the generic ballot for most of the way, probably all the way through. Democrats will probably lead in the competitive Biden +1/2 states. In the Senate particularly, since all the competitive races are in those "barely Biden" states I think people are going to be very misled if the polling is wrong again, and they could all go one way at the end and give Republicans the 54 seats that are possible. The House I think will be "better" for the forecasters but still not great. It's much easier for the Democrat hacks in the election punditry to blame it on gerrymandering (as they will) so there'll be a greater expectation of that chamber going Republican. But beyond that there are significant differences in how competitive districts lean, whereas all the Senate races are in states that have similar partisan makeups, so I think it's harder to get as much wrong.

The thing about 2022 is that Republicans don't need a "red wave" to win both chambers. They simply need a slightly better than 2020 result. But a red wave would put the Republicans in a good position to hold both chambers into 2024, where they could win the presidency and get a trifecta (or, in the event they lose narrowly, stop a President Harris from doing much). In the Senate, if Democrats don't limit their losses or gain a seat or two in 2022, it is VERY unlikely they'll get it in 2024 when they'll be defending WV, MT, and OH as well as many other purple states. A red ripple could mean Democrats take back the House in 2024 with a good year and at least keep the Senate close. So I see 2022 as an important midterm for the medium-term power struggle of this country, but it might not feel significant in the short-term if there aren't many surprises.

This is a post I made more than a month ago. Since then, it's pretty clear which road we've traveled down thus far, and it's a tough sell to say he'll rebound to pre-August levels. Joe Biden's approval is now underwater in the mid-40's, intensity opposition among Republicans has spiked to levels similar to Democrats w/Trump, and even limited generic ballot polling has a dead heat in the same polls where Biden's approval is even or slightly overwater. It's clear we're in a different political environment now than we were in the first half of this year. I think if this continues being the case, we're going to look back at late summer/early fall of 2021 as the defining period of time where the environment shifted. This is looking like it'll be anywhere from 4 to 12 points more Republican than the 2020 elections. 2018, in comparison, was about 10 points more Dem on congressional ballot than 2016.

These are the changes I'm making to my Senate ratings:



Republicans: 53 (+3)
Democrats: 47 (-3)

AK: Likely R --> Safe R

This is partially an environment shift, and partially a shift based on me rethinking the plausibility of a Dem winning. It's likely that (as in the past few elections involving Murkowski), the actual Democrat gets a far lower percentage than usual because Murkowski has some Dem voters in her coalition along with a few (and shrinking) moderate R's. The Dem voters are very likely to rank Murkowski ahead of the challenging Republican, but many of Murkowski's voters may still rank the other Republican ahead of the Democrat, leading to virtually no chance of the Democrat succeeding even if they were to make it to top 2. To conclude, I see this more being a race between Murkowski and the insurgent Republican, not as D vs R. It's Safe R with the caveat that it may be competitive between the two Republicans.

These shifts are all based on political environment alone. Shifts based on candidates and state polling may come later.

AZ: Tilt R --> Lean R
GA: Tilt R --> Lean R
NV: Tilt R --> Lean R
NH: Lean D --> Tilt D (Lean R w/Sununu)
NC: Lean R --> Likely R
OH: Likely R --> Safe R
PA: Tilt R --> Lean R

I had briefly post-Portman retirement gave a very slight chance to Democrats here. But with this environment, I'm not even going to entertain Ohio going blue when Trump won it by 8 again and even edgelord Josh Mandel is leading Ryan in a poll that way overestimated Democrats in 2020.

Keep in mind Lean still implies a competitive race with a 10-30% chance of winning, it's just one side has a sizable advantage. Likely is mostly non-competitive though with minimal chance.

Now, I don't expect many people to agree with me. In fact, most of this forum, and the "expert" election prognosticators will likely keep the belwether races (AZ, GA, NV, NH, WI, PA) as mostly toss-ups the entire election season. But I'm basing this on what we've observed in the past 4 years and what the environment looks like now and likely in the future, and it's just not that likely that Democrats will prevail in states they barely won in 2020, while the political environment looks 5-10 points worse for them. And I think this forum will drag it's feet with that reality, I don't think many people want to admit that is the case, because they want Democrats to win.

Let's just play a hypothetical here. The generic ballot looks 6 points worse for Dems already. Biden's approval is a larger 12 points underwater compared to his pre-election polling. Let's just swing every battleground here 6 points Republican from 2020 results on the federal level and see what happens.

State: Presidential, House, Senate (if applicable)

AZ: R+5.5, R+6, R+3.5
GA: R+5.5, R+8, R+7 (reg), R+4 (runoff)
NV: R+3.5, R+4
NH: D+1.5, D+1.5, D+11
NC: R+7, n/a, R+7.5
OH: R+14, R+20
PA: R+5, R+7
WI: R+5.5, R+9

"But not every state has uniform swing". Yeah I get it, some will have less and some will have more, which will balance throughout the country. These numbers clearly demonstrate that there is LARGE room for chance/error on the part of Republican candidates and campaigns. Some of these may get adjusted next year back to toss-up or perhaps even Likely if there's large circumstantial evidence that they're not swinging with the rest of the country. But until then, I feel pretty comfortable with this, even if the rest of the election prediction mafia doesn't. The only one I feel a little shaky on is Nevada, which could remain Tilt R for all I care.

Here's how I view the overall picture.

Senate Control: Lean R (closer to Likely)
House Control: Lean R --> Likely R

While we're waiting for House districts to be drawn, I can only make some educated guesses based on what I know about the environment so far. Earlier in the year, I would've guessed mid 230's as far as a specific number for Republicans. Now I think mid-240's is actually more likely than mid-230's. But I would say 240-245 would be my best guess right now, with Republicans winning the PV by around 5%.
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ElectionsGuy
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2021, 11:40:43 AM »
« Edited: September 30, 2021, 10:08:08 AM by ElectionsGuy »

While I'm at it, here's governors. I'm more likely to be cautious early on (not use safe as much) when it comes to these races.



Republicans: 31 (+4)
Democrats: 19 (-4)

Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NM, VA
Tilt D:
Tilt R: MI, NV
Lean R: AZ, GA, KS, WI
Likely R: FL, IA, TX

I always assume the incumbent runs if they're eligible. This may change some things, especially in New England. By far the most vulnerable incumbent is Laura Kelly, followed by Tony Evers. The best targets for Democrats are Arizona and Georgia, but that's about all that's available for picking.
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2021, 09:24:19 AM »

As I went through Illinois' new districts, it dawned on me I needed to reevaluate moderately blue-leaning states and areas for a midterm that isn't looking too bright for Dems so far. Given what happened in Virginia and New Jersey as well, I think adds validity that there are going to be blue-leaning areas that will be competitive in 2022.

IL: Safe D ---> Likely D
CO: Likely D --> Lean D

I thought about how Virginia is very similar to Colorado partisan wise and New Jersey is very similar to Illinois in that regard. I had New Jersey as Likely D before Murphy went on to win by only 3 points. I think more prognosticators and "experts" need to think about this as well. In an R-leaning environment, great chance a state like IL is single digits. In red wave, it could even be pretty close (especially for governor). Colorado has D trends that are helping buff the Dems advantage, but you still wouldn't expect Bennet to perform any better than Hickenlooper did over Gardner (which I had as Likely D) given the generic ballot.

Oregon I think is still safe because Wyden has a history of overperforming the topline. Washington I think is just too Dem and not enough areas trending R like Illinois.

I'm also going to reverse two governor ratings I had. CT I had as Lean D and Oregon as Likely D. I think now CT is Likely D and OR is Lean D, given popularity disparities of incumbent governors.
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #7 on: December 03, 2021, 03:04:05 PM »

Update on Governors

MA: Per Baker and his lt. not running, it means Democrats are automatically favored to win in this race after two terms of a Republican in a deep blue state. The only reason I'd say it's Likely D is the amount of swing we've seen in the past with MA governor races.

NV: I think Sisolak is actually more vulnerable than Cortez-Masto, given his lackluster approval ratings and the toll pandemic restrictions have had on Nevada's economy which has been hit particularly hard.

PA: Despite talk about a weak Republican bench and Dems getting their "strong recruit" (Shapiro, incumbent AG) I still view this race based on fundamentals, and those look quite good for Republicans. The current incumbent has a <50% approval rating after two terms of occupying the governorship in what is now an R+3 state, not even addressing the national climate. If Republicans fail to win this race, they really should take a look at their state party and ask some tough questions.

IA: Moving to Safe R. She's not even unpopular and the overwhelming R lean of Iowa at this point would make it nearly impossible to defeat her anyway.

I also added 2023 races since 2021 races are done.



Democrats are heavily favored to flip two open-seat deep blue states: MA and MD.

Republicans are favored to flip one open seat purple state: PA.

4 Democratic incumbents are very vulnerable: Kelly (D-KS), Whitmer (D-MI), Sisolak (D-NV), and Evers (D-WI).

4 other incumbents: Kemp (R-GA), Mills (D-ME), Walz (D-MN), and Grisham (D-NM) are all somewhat vulnerable.

The incumbent party is favored to hang on in AZ, OR.

Republicans: 31 (+5, -2 Net: +3)
Democrats: 19

In 2023

Beshear (D-KY) is very vulnerable.

Republicans are heavily favored to flip LA.

Republicans: 33 (+2)
Democrats: 17
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2022, 08:55:04 AM »

Here's some Senate margin predictions, 9 months out.

AZ - Republican: 52.5%, Kelly: 47.0%
CO - Bennet: 52%, Republican: 46%
GA - Walker: 52.0%, Warnock: 47.5%
NV - Laxalt: 50%, Cortez-Masto: 46%
NH - Hassan: 49%, Republican: 48%
NC - Republican: 54%, Democrat: 44.5%
PA - Republican: 52.5%, Democrat: 46.5%
WI - Johnson: 53%, Barnes: 45.5%

Some other Likely/Safe races for fun

FL - Rubio: 55%, Democrat: 43.5%
IL - Duckworth: 54.5%, Republican: 44.5%
MD w/Hogan - Democrat: 55%, Hogan: 44%
NY - Schumer: 58%, Republican: 40%
OH - Republican: 56%, Ryan: 43%
WA - Murray: 56%, Republican: 44%

In an R+3-7 environment, the vast majority of traditional toss-up states are not super close, even with Democratic incumbents. The consensus by the pundits and election community I believe is either convinced the environment is not Republican-friendly or infected with wishful thinking once again. Most people based on their predictions expect Republicans to improve maybe 2-4 points from 2020. I'm expecting a 6-12 point improvement.
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
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Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2022, 04:10:00 AM »



NM and ME now "Tilt D". I'm open to Minnesota being that too, I just haven't seen evidence that Walz is in too much trouble.
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