Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor
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October 01, 2022, 10:24:04 PM
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  Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor
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Author Topic: Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor  (Read 18435 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #50 on: September 14, 2021, 04:15:54 PM »

While I'm at it, here's governors. I'm more likely to be cautious early on (not use safe as much) when it comes to these races.



Republicans: 32 (+5)
Democrats: 18 (-5)

Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NM, VA
Tilt D:
Tilt R: MI, NV
Lean R: AZ, GA, KS, WI
Likely R: FL, IA, TX

I always assume the incumbent runs if they're eligible. This may change some things, especially in New England. By far the most vulnerable incumbent is Laura Kelly, followed by Tony Evers. The best targets for Democrats are Arizona and Georgia, but that's about all that's available for picking.

I think you failed to give Dems MD in your governorship count, which would make it R+4.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #51 on: September 14, 2021, 08:29:05 PM »

That map will never happen D's loosing MI, Whitmer is ahead
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Chips
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« Reply #52 on: October 15, 2021, 10:06:34 PM »

While I'm at it, here's governors. I'm more likely to be cautious early on (not use safe as much) when it comes to these races.



Republicans: 31 (+4)
Democrats: 19 (-4)

Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NM, VA
Tilt D:
Tilt R: MI, NV
Lean R: AZ, GA, KS, WI
Likely R: FL, IA, TX

I always assume the incumbent runs if they're eligible. This may change some things, especially in New England. By far the most vulnerable incumbent is Laura Kelly, followed by Tony Evers. The best targets for Democrats are Arizona and Georgia, but that's about all that's available for picking.

Wow. I have Nevada as Tilt D but aside from that this looks quite similar to my map. I have Michigan as the closest state with a 0.4% margin for the GOP.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #53 on: October 15, 2021, 10:49:14 PM »

While I'm at it, here's governors. I'm more likely to be cautious early on (not use safe as much) when it comes to these races.



Republicans: 31 (+4)
Democrats: 19 (-4)

Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NM, VA
Tilt D:
Tilt R: MI, NV
Lean R: AZ, GA, KS, WI
Likely R: FL, IA, TX

I always assume the incumbent runs if they're eligible. This may change some things, especially in New England. By far the most vulnerable incumbent is Laura Kelly, followed by Tony Evers. The best targets for Democrats are Arizona and Georgia, but that's about all that's available for picking.

Wow. I have Nevada as Tilt D but aside from that this looks quite similar to my map. I have Michigan as the closest state with a 0.4% margin for the GOP.

Dems losing Whitmer would be devastating.  She is one of their future national candidates.
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Wormless Gourd
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« Reply #54 on: November 09, 2021, 10:19:58 PM »


Gut ratings.
By '22 Biden's approvals are still not good and hover maybe a point or two above where they are now.
Chamber is flipped to Republicans, GOP declares massive victory, Dems see it as a very weak rebuke.
I am not confident in AZ and NVs ratings.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #55 on: November 25, 2021, 09:24:19 AM »

As I went through Illinois' new districts, it dawned on me I needed to reevaluate moderately blue-leaning states and areas for a midterm that isn't looking too bright for Dems so far. Given what happened in Virginia and New Jersey as well, I think adds validity that there are going to be blue-leaning areas that will be competitive in 2022.

IL: Safe D ---> Likely D
CO: Likely D --> Lean D

I thought about how Virginia is very similar to Colorado partisan wise and New Jersey is very similar to Illinois in that regard. I had New Jersey as Likely D before Murphy went on to win by only 3 points. I think more prognosticators and "experts" need to think about this as well. In an R-leaning environment, great chance a state like IL is single digits. In red wave, it could even be pretty close (especially for governor). Colorado has D trends that are helping buff the Dems advantage, but you still wouldn't expect Bennet to perform any better than Hickenlooper did over Gardner (which I had as Likely D) given the generic ballot.

Oregon I think is still safe because Wyden has a history of overperforming the topline. Washington I think is just too Dem and not enough areas trending R like Illinois.

I'm also going to reverse two governor ratings I had. CT I had as Lean D and Oregon as Likely D. I think now CT is Likely D and OR is Lean D, given popularity disparities of incumbent governors.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #56 on: November 25, 2021, 12:48:48 PM »


Gut ratings.
By '22 Biden's approvals are still not good and hover maybe a point or two above where they are now.
Chamber is flipped to Republicans, GOP declares massive victory, Dems see it as a very weak rebuke.
I am not confident in AZ and NVs ratings.


This map only happens if Biden stays at 41 lol I don't care if Biden is at 25 OZ iisnt beating FETTERMAN


I am an optimistic not Doomer
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Thunder98
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« Reply #57 on: December 01, 2021, 04:46:46 PM »

Update: With Baker declining to running for re-election. I have moved that race to safe D. With the GA local elections last night and Abrams jumping in. I moved all statewide races in GA to Toss-up.



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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #58 on: December 01, 2021, 06:38:02 PM »

Only doing the Senate right now.

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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #59 on: December 01, 2021, 09:35:34 PM »

Only doing the Senate right now.




Kelly was leading by 1 and Johnson was tied against BARNES
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #60 on: December 03, 2021, 12:54:05 AM »

Only doing the Senate right now.




Kelly was leading by 1 and Johnson was tied against BARNES

Yes, but those are hardly commanding leads for Democrats and I've only rated these races tilt Republican (though WI is more like lean to likely Republican if Johnson doesn't run, I think).
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #61 on: December 03, 2021, 03:04:05 PM »

Update on Governors

MA: Per Baker and his lt. not running, it means Democrats are automatically favored to win in this race after two terms of a Republican in a deep blue state. The only reason I'd say it's Likely D is the amount of swing we've seen in the past with MA governor races.

NV: I think Sisolak is actually more vulnerable than Cortez-Masto, given his lackluster approval ratings and the toll pandemic restrictions have had on Nevada's economy which has been hit particularly hard.

PA: Despite talk about a weak Republican bench and Dems getting their "strong recruit" (Shapiro, incumbent AG) I still view this race based on fundamentals, and those look quite good for Republicans. The current incumbent has a <50% approval rating after two terms of occupying the governorship in what is now an R+3 state, not even addressing the national climate. If Republicans fail to win this race, they really should take a look at their state party and ask some tough questions.

IA: Moving to Safe R. She's not even unpopular and the overwhelming R lean of Iowa at this point would make it nearly impossible to defeat her anyway.

I also added 2023 races since 2021 races are done.



Democrats are heavily favored to flip two open-seat deep blue states: MA and MD.

Republicans are favored to flip one open seat purple state: PA.

4 Democratic incumbents are very vulnerable: Kelly (D-KS), Whitmer (D-MI), Sisolak (D-NV), and Evers (D-WI).

4 other incumbents: Kemp (R-GA), Mills (D-ME), Walz (D-MN), and Grisham (D-NM) are all somewhat vulnerable.

The incumbent party is favored to hang on in AZ, OR.

Republicans: 31 (+5, -2 Net: +3)
Democrats: 19

In 2023

Beshear (D-KY) is very vulnerable.

Republicans are heavily favored to flip LA.

Republicans: 33 (+2)
Democrats: 17
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #62 on: December 03, 2021, 03:07:54 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2021, 03:16:47 PM by Mr. MANDELA BARNES »

Beshear can win reelection

Kelly of KS isnt doomed what poll has her behinfld in fact the last poll had her up 5 in a Clarity poll, Biden won't be at 41 percent on Nov 22
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Shapiro or An Hero
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« Reply #63 on: December 31, 2021, 11:39:45 AM »





Ratings as of New Year's Eve. Remember, precedent is there for Shapiro to get ancestral D support in the face of heated rural turnout.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #64 on: January 15, 2022, 03:55:30 PM »


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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #65 on: January 15, 2022, 09:26:27 PM »

OR is going Independent Betsy Johnson is gonna beat any D

Maggie Hassan is ahead and So it Mark Kelly and Whitmer leads by  10
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #66 on: January 16, 2022, 10:38:54 AM »

NV polls have always overstated R trends and it's 4/6 pts well within the margin of error
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #67 on: February 06, 2022, 08:55:04 AM »

Here's some Senate margin predictions, 9 months out.

AZ - Republican: 52.5%, Kelly: 47.0%
CO - Bennet: 52%, Republican: 46%
GA - Walker: 52.0%, Warnock: 47.5%
NV - Laxalt: 50%, Cortez-Masto: 46%
NH - Hassan: 49%, Republican: 48%
NC - Republican: 54%, Democrat: 44.5%
PA - Republican: 52.5%, Democrat: 46.5%
WI - Johnson: 53%, Barnes: 45.5%

Some other Likely/Safe races for fun

FL - Rubio: 55%, Democrat: 43.5%
IL - Duckworth: 54.5%, Republican: 44.5%
MD w/Hogan - Democrat: 55%, Hogan: 44%
NY - Schumer: 58%, Republican: 40%
OH - Republican: 56%, Ryan: 43%
WA - Murray: 56%, Republican: 44%

In an R+3-7 environment, the vast majority of traditional toss-up states are not super close, even with Democratic incumbents. The consensus by the pundits and election community I believe is either convinced the environment is not Republican-friendly or infected with wishful thinking once again. Most people based on their predictions expect Republicans to improve maybe 2-4 points from 2020. I'm expecting a 6-12 point improvement.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #68 on: February 06, 2022, 08:59:34 AM »
« Edited: February 06, 2022, 09:15:43 AM by SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS »

Kelly is leading in 2 straight polls 50/47 and 42/38 and GA is headed to a Runoff I know Election Guy wants AZ to be Lean R but Kelly is popular even among Rs in the state he's not losing and neither is Warnock Walker is short of 50 to avoid a Runoff or t was 47/44

CCM is up by 9 pts Rs aren't sweeping everything, plse Election Guy


My Predictions

AZ Kelly 52/48 v Masters
GA Warnock 51/49 def Walker in Runoff
LA Mixon 51/48 def Kennedy in Runoff
NV CCM 52/48 def Laxalt
NC Cheri B 52/48 def Pat McCrory
PA Fetterman 51/48 def Oz
WI Barnes 51/49 def Johnson


304/234 blue wall as of now it's a 54)46 Senate not sure yet about FL, OH
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #69 on: February 06, 2022, 02:06:58 PM »


This is not gonna be the map Whitmer is leading anyways and Kelly and CCM and SISOLAK have surged

Betsy Johnson is gonna win OR Gov she is a Dem/INDY
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #70 on: February 06, 2022, 02:27:46 PM »

Here's some Senate margin predictions, 9 months out.

AZ - Republican: 52.5%, Kelly: 47.0%
CO - Bennet: 52%, Republican: 46%
GA - Walker: 52.0%, Warnock: 47.5%
NV - Laxalt: 50%, Cortez-Masto: 46%
NH - Hassan: 49%, Republican: 48%
NC - Republican: 54%, Democrat: 44.5%
PA - Republican: 52.5%, Democrat: 46.5%
WI - Johnson: 53%, Barnes: 45.5%

Some other Likely/Safe races for fun

FL - Rubio: 55%, Democrat: 43.5%
IL - Duckworth: 54.5%, Republican: 44.5%
MD w/Hogan - Democrat: 55%, Hogan: 44%
NY - Schumer: 58%, Republican: 40%
OH - Republican: 56%, Ryan: 43%
WA - Murray: 56%, Republican: 44%

In an R+3-7 environment, the vast majority of traditional toss-up states are not super close, even with Democratic incumbents. The consensus by the pundits and election community I believe is either convinced the environment is not Republican-friendly or infected with wishful thinking once again. Most people based on their predictions expect Republicans to improve maybe 2-4 points from 2020. I'm expecting a 6-12 point improvement.


I like how Rs predict a landslide against Ryan and there has been zero polling in OH and NC
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« Reply #71 on: February 14, 2022, 02:51:20 PM »


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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #72 on: February 17, 2022, 04:36:41 PM »

Senate: 53-47 Republican (+3 gain)

Ohio -> Republican +10
Florida -> Rubio +8
Pennsylvania -> Republican +5
Wisconsin -> Johnson +5
North Carolina -> Republican +3
Georgia -> Walker +2
Arizona -> Republican +1
Nevada -> Laxalt +1

New Hampshire -> Hassan +3
Colorado -> Bennet +5




Governor: 31-19 Republican (+3 gain)

Florida -> DeSantis +10
Texas -> Abbott +8
Kansas -> Schmidt +6
Pennsylvania -> Republican +5
Wisconsin -> Kleefisch +5
Michigan -> Craig +4
Georgia -> Republican +2
Arizona -> Republican +1
Nevada -> Republican +1

Minnesota -> Walz +4
New Mexico -> Grisham +4
Colorado -> Polis +5
Maine -> Mills +6
Connecticut -> Lamont +8
Oregon -> Democrat +8

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Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #73 on: February 23, 2022, 07:59:27 AM »
« Edited: February 23, 2022, 10:00:03 AM by SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS »

Lol Shapiro, Evers, Mills, SISOLAK and Whitmer aren't losing even in a miderm Rs aren't winning 31 Gov dream on
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #74 on: February 23, 2022, 02:27:32 PM »

Lol Shapiro, Evers, Mills, SISOLAK and Whitmer aren't losing even in a miderm Rs aren't winning 31 Gov dream on

It's not 2012 anymore. 
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