Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor
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November 26, 2021, 06:25:09 PM

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  Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor
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Author Topic: Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor  (Read 8451 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #50 on: September 14, 2021, 04:15:54 PM »

While I'm at it, here's governors. I'm more likely to be cautious early on (not use safe as much) when it comes to these races.



Republicans: 32 (+5)
Democrats: 18 (-5)

Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NM, VA
Tilt D:
Tilt R: MI, NV
Lean R: AZ, GA, KS, WI
Likely R: FL, IA, TX

I always assume the incumbent runs if they're eligible. This may change some things, especially in New England. By far the most vulnerable incumbent is Laura Kelly, followed by Tony Evers. The best targets for Democrats are Arizona and Georgia, but that's about all that's available for picking.

I think you failed to give Dems MD in your governorship count, which would make it R+4.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #51 on: September 14, 2021, 08:29:05 PM »

That map will never happen D's loosing MI, Whitmer is ahead
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Chips
Those Chips
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« Reply #52 on: October 15, 2021, 10:06:34 PM »

While I'm at it, here's governors. I'm more likely to be cautious early on (not use safe as much) when it comes to these races.



Republicans: 31 (+4)
Democrats: 19 (-4)

Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NM, VA
Tilt D:
Tilt R: MI, NV
Lean R: AZ, GA, KS, WI
Likely R: FL, IA, TX

I always assume the incumbent runs if they're eligible. This may change some things, especially in New England. By far the most vulnerable incumbent is Laura Kelly, followed by Tony Evers. The best targets for Democrats are Arizona and Georgia, but that's about all that's available for picking.

Wow. I have Nevada as Tilt D but aside from that this looks quite similar to my map. I have Michigan as the closest state with a 0.4% margin for the GOP.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #53 on: October 15, 2021, 10:49:14 PM »

While I'm at it, here's governors. I'm more likely to be cautious early on (not use safe as much) when it comes to these races.



Republicans: 31 (+4)
Democrats: 19 (-4)

Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NM, VA
Tilt D:
Tilt R: MI, NV
Lean R: AZ, GA, KS, WI
Likely R: FL, IA, TX

I always assume the incumbent runs if they're eligible. This may change some things, especially in New England. By far the most vulnerable incumbent is Laura Kelly, followed by Tony Evers. The best targets for Democrats are Arizona and Georgia, but that's about all that's available for picking.

Wow. I have Nevada as Tilt D but aside from that this looks quite similar to my map. I have Michigan as the closest state with a 0.4% margin for the GOP.

Dems losing Whitmer would be devastating.  She is one of their future national candidates.
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still cringenat
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« Reply #54 on: November 09, 2021, 10:19:58 PM »


Gut ratings.
By '22 Biden's approvals are still not good and hover maybe a point or two above where they are now.
Chamber is flipped to Republicans, GOP declares massive victory, Dems see it as a very weak rebuke.
I am not confident in AZ and NVs ratings.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #55 on: November 25, 2021, 09:24:19 AM »

As I went through Illinois' new districts, it dawned on me I needed to reevaluate moderately blue-leaning states and areas for a midterm that isn't looking too bright for Dems so far. Given what happened in Virginia and New Jersey as well, I think adds validity that there are going to be blue-leaning areas that will be competitive in 2022.

IL: Safe D ---> Likely D
CO: Likely D --> Lean D

I thought about how Virginia is very similar to Colorado partisan wise and New Jersey is very similar to Illinois in that regard. I had New Jersey as Likely D before Murphy went on to win by only 3 points. I think more prognosticators and "experts" need to think about this as well. In an R-leaning environment, great chance a state like IL is single digits. In red wave, it could even be pretty close (especially for governor). Colorado has D trends that are helping buff the Dems advantage, but you still wouldn't expect Bennet to perform any better than Hickenlooper did over Gardner (which I had as Likely D) given the generic ballot.

Oregon I think is still safe because Wyden has a history of overperforming the topline. Washington I think is just too Dem and not enough areas trending R like Illinois.

I'm also going to reverse two governor ratings I had. CT I had as Lean D and Oregon as Likely D. I think now CT is Likely D and OR is Lean D, given popularity disparities of incumbent governors.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
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« Reply #56 on: November 25, 2021, 12:48:48 PM »


Gut ratings.
By '22 Biden's approvals are still not good and hover maybe a point or two above where they are now.
Chamber is flipped to Republicans, GOP declares massive victory, Dems see it as a very weak rebuke.
I am not confident in AZ and NVs ratings.


This map only happens if Biden stays at 41 lol I don't care if Biden is at 25 OZ iisnt beating FETTERMAN


I am an optimistic not Doomer
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