Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #25 on: January 11, 2021, 07:23:14 AM »

I'm just going to do Senate for now because Governor races can be very difficult to predict early on.

Early 2022 Senate Ratings



To start off, I'm going to take what we've learned about 2020 results and assume a Lean GOP environment, not even a GOP wave as that's too premature, but history suggests at least a Lean R environment is likely.

1. Arizona (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Odds are, Kelly will get a better opponent than McSally in a state where Republicans already (very narrowly) won the congressional vote in 2020. He is highly vulnerable in a Lean R environment, after only winning by 2-3 against McSally in 2020, but he did overperform both Biden and House Dems which is why I think it's a toss-up and not Lean R. ~60% chance it flips GOP
2. Nevada (Toss-Up/Tilt R): As a state that votes to the left of Arizona, one might wonder why I'm rating it the same way. A few reasons, 1) Cortez-Masto performed like an average Democrat in 2016 2) The state has been trending Republican over the past few cycles (In 2018 and 2020 Democrats underperformed the national swing) 3) She's vulnerable to a turnout drop with younger voters and minorities that could disproportionately hurt Democrats. However, it still remains to be seen whether GOP can keep their gains with Latinos and certain Asians and if they can nominate a good candidate. ~55% chance it flips GOP
3. Pennsylvania (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Largely due to Toomey's retirement, and the fact that this state has been consistently slightly less GOP than Wisconsin in 2018 and 2020. But, GOP already winning the House vote in 2020 doesn't bode well for Democrats in a Lean R environment. ~65% chance it stays GOP
4. New Hampshire (Lean D): In 2020, there was a decent swing to the left in New Hampshire, however, Hassan is highly vulnerable depending on the opponent she gets. If it's Sununu, this race changes drastically. This is a state that can swing double digits in 2 years pretty easily. But she starts out with a small advantage as an incumbent in a state that leans towards her party. ~70% chance it stays Dem
5. Georgia (Lean R): This rating assumes Loeffler wins since that is my prediction right now. If not, I will change it to toss-up but tilt R. Definitely a toss-up otherwise but Republicans should be able to win narrowly in an R-leaning environment, even Loefller who is subpar. It just remains to be seen if the trends can overpower the environment. I lean towards no, as usually the opposition party claws back with some previous defections in favorable midterms. ~70% chance it stays GOP.
6. North Carolina (Lean R): Burr retiring is actually good for the party but the candidate could be anybody. But, anybody should be able to keep or outperform the margins done by Republicans in 2020. ~75% chance it stays GOP
7. Wisconsin (Lean R): It remains to be determined if Johnson runs for re-election, but assuming he does he should be able to win on the environment alone. He's polarizing and "controversial" but he's won before when he was declared dead against the rerun of Feingold and should be able to win considering Republicans already won the congressional vote by 3% in 2020. ~80% chance it stays GOP.
8. Alaska (Likely R): There is a good chance of silly nonsense happening with Murkowski in her primary, as it always seems to happen, but there is a minimal chance that it has enough positive impact for Democrats in the general. But the state has been trending Democratic. ~90% chance it stays GOP.
9. Florida (Likely R): Rubio already overperformed for a Republican in 2016 against a 'rising star' opponent. He should have no problem winning easily in 2020 with the trends of the last few cycles. ~95% chance it stays GOP
10. Colorado (Likely D): In what would've been a competitive race cycles ago, Colorado posted the 2nd strongest Dem swing of any state in 2020, and is one of the most college-educated states in the nation. It flipping is now a longshot that can only be done if absolutely everything goes right for Republicans. Bennet should be able to do better than he did even in 2016. ~95% chance it stays Dem

Everything else is safe, or if it does become non-safe it'll be very likely. It'll be interesting to look back and see how accurate this assessment is. I've looked back at my early 2018 guesses and they were okay but had some glaring misses (like Heitkamp easily winning in early 2017). I think these should be more accurate as these senate elections have become all too predictable.

Georgia gets shifted up to the #2 spot and is Toss-Up/Tilt R with about 55% chance of a flip. It would be #1 based on PVI and candidate performance, but adding in trends and my bias in predicting Georgia shifts it slightly more left.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #26 on: January 15, 2021, 08:38:01 AM »

Likely: Not competitive at this point, but has the potential to become competitive

Lean: Competitive but one party has an advantage

Tilt: Competitive but one party has a slight advantage

Toss-up : The most competitive races which either party has a good chance of winning


SENATE



GOVERNOR



GA-GOV: Toss-up -> Lean D; GA-SEN: Toss-up -> Lean D, rest stays the same. GA is not safe, but that election was more than an ominous sign for GA Republicans, and I donít think itís wise to expect so-called 'moderate' suburbanites/exurbanites who turned out for a runoff to vote out a generic R in order to give Biden a trifecta to 'snap back' in 2022. Itís possible that turnout patterns will be more R-friendly, but even with that in mind, itís hard to see Kemp holding on or Warnock losing before some other vulnerable D incumbents.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #27 on: January 16, 2021, 10:03:55 AM »
« Edited: January 16, 2021, 11:20:28 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Likely: Not competitive at this point, but has the potential to become competitive

Lean: Competitive but one party has an advantage

Tilt: Competitive but one party has a slight advantage of

Toss-up : The most competitive races which either party has a good chance of winning


SENATE



GOVERNOR



GA-GOV: Toss-up -> Lean D; GA-SEN: Toss-up -> Lean D, rest stays the same. GA is not safe, but that election was more than an ominous sign for GA Republicans, and I donít think itís wise to expect so-called 'moderate' suburbanites/exurbanites who turned out for a runoff to vote out a generic R in order to give Biden a trifecta to 'snap back' in 2022. Itís possible that turnout patterns will be more R-friendly, but even with that in mind, itís hard to see Kemp holding on or Warnock losing before some other vulnerable D incumbents.

Still think WI is Lean R, NO double NO
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Pericles
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« Reply #28 on: January 16, 2021, 08:44:15 PM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2021, 09:11:19 PM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen
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Pericles
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« Reply #30 on: January 16, 2021, 09:17:50 PM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen

Just to clarify, this is the party I think is favored in each individual race. I don't expect Republicans to win all the competitive races.
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Chips
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« Reply #31 on: January 21, 2021, 10:11:12 PM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen

Just to clarify, this is the party I think is favored in each individual race. I don't expect Republicans to win all the competitive races.

Fair map. Almost mine exact.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #32 on: January 22, 2021, 10:32:26 AM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen

Just to clarify, this is the party I think is favored in each individual race. I don't expect Republicans to win all the competitive races.

Fair map. Almost mine exact.

If you think Rs are gonna sweep every race, you are kidding yourself
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Chips
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« Reply #33 on: January 22, 2021, 05:32:54 PM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen

Just to clarify, this is the party I think is favored in each individual race. I don't expect Republicans to win all the competitive races.

Fair map. Almost mine exact.

If you think Rs are gonna sweep every race, you are kidding yourself

I do think NH and NV will vote D as of now. Key word: Almost
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #34 on: January 22, 2021, 06:41:16 PM »

Sandoval isn't running and the Rs don't have a bench in NV
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #35 on: January 23, 2021, 01:45:49 AM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen

Just to clarify, this is the party I think is favored in each individual race. I don't expect Republicans to win all the competitive races.

Fair map. Almost mine exact.

If you think Rs are gonna sweep every race, you are kidding yourself

I do think NH and NV will vote D as of now. Key word: Almost
Still might be too optimistic, but I wouldnít be surprised by this considering Bidenís approval rating is already 55% in D+14 registration polls...Reuters. And we know the 2022 midterms wonít be showing D+14 exit polls; theyíll be lucky to even have a plurality in them.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #36 on: January 24, 2021, 10:45:57 AM »

Ah too bad Ducey and Sandoval aren't running, Ducey just announced he isn't running in 2022 no R dream map

NH is the only pickup shot for Rs, if Sununu runs
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #37 on: July 27, 2021, 09:50:13 AM »
« Edited: July 27, 2021, 05:26:43 PM by Mr. Kanye West »




51/49 SENATE
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #38 on: July 28, 2021, 09:09:42 PM »




51/49 SENATE

Warnock isn't losing at the same time as Johnson.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #39 on: July 28, 2021, 09:34:04 PM »

It's not my final map
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« Reply #40 on: July 31, 2021, 02:49:17 PM »

Senate:



Governor:



**Note: MA, VT, and NH ratings are based on assumption their incumbent governors are running again.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #41 on: July 31, 2021, 07:11:01 PM »

Ben Downing can beat Charlie Baker
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #42 on: August 03, 2021, 01:36:28 PM »

Update on this year's races and the overall outlook for 2022.

CA-Recall 2021: Likely No (D)

Despite some polling suggesting the race tightening, and Republicans disproportionately energized, I highly expect Newsom to be retained. The margin will still probably be a bad sign for Democrats in 2022, but I think a final push by Democrats in the last few weeks will be more than enough to save him. And even then, is it even guaranteed a Republican would win the 2nd ballot? Elder is currently leading, but there's a ton who say their "undecided" (aka Newsom supporters) and whether they vote on that question at all or coalesce behind a Democrat would make a decent difference.

VA 2021: Lean D

I had previously thought of this as Likely D, but even the polling has been surprisingly close. I do think that Virginia has trended so far to the left that it's still a long shot, but a narrow win by Youngkin is possible if everything goes right. I expect McAuliffe to win by more like 4-7.

NJ 2021: Likely D

Not much to say, Phil Murphy should win pretty easily, but not in a landslide. I don't think Phil Murphy is getting any crossover appeal and New Jersey still has a large base of Republicans (typically low 40's), so I rate it Likely D just in case a freak accident were to occur in an off-year with the disproportionate turnout.

As far as 2022 goes, I just want to chime in to say this: We are at a crossroads in regards to Joe Biden's approval. If it slips any further than it has now, it is overwhelmingly likely Republicans will take both chambers of Congress in 2022. Even without that factor, the enthusiasm factor always helps the out party in midterms. If the approval stays the same, I still think they'd lose both chambers, but it would be limited losses that they could more easily get back in 2024 (for the House). My full expectation is that (as people are probably sick of me telling) the polls will be very unreliable in terms of predicting margins in races. I expect Democrats to lead the generic ballot for most of the way, probably all the way through. Democrats will probably lead in the competitive Biden +1/2 states. In the Senate particularly, since all the competitive races are in those "barely Biden" states I think people are going to be very misled if the polling is wrong again, and they could all go one way at the end and give Republicans the 54 seats that are possible. The House I think will be "better" for the forecasters but still not great. It's much easier for the Democrat hacks in the election punditry to blame it on gerrymandering (as they will) so there'll be a greater expectation of that chamber going Republican. But beyond that there are significant differences in how competitive districts lean, whereas all the Senate races are in states that have similar partisan makeups, so I think it's harder to get as much wrong.

The thing about 2022 is that Republicans don't need a "red wave" to win both chambers. They simply need a slightly better than 2020 result. But a red wave would put the Republicans in a good position to hold both chambers into 2024, where they could win the presidency and get a trifecta (or, in the event they lose narrowly, stop a President Harris from doing much). In the Senate, if Democrats don't limit their losses or gain a seat or two in 2022, it is VERY unlikely they'll get it in 2024 when they'll be defending WV, MT, and OH as well as many other purple states. A red ripple could mean Democrats take back the House in 2024 with a good year and at least keep the Senate close. So I see 2022 as an important midterm for the medium-term power struggle of this country, but it might not feel significant in the short-term if there aren't many surprises.
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« Reply #43 on: August 04, 2021, 10:50:37 PM »

Update on this year's races and the overall outlook for 2022.

CA-Recall 2021: Likely No (D)

Despite some polling suggesting the race tightening, and Republicans disproportionately energized, I highly expect Newsom to be retained. The margin will still probably be a bad sign for Democrats in 2022, but I think a final push by Democrats in the last few weeks will be more than enough to save him. And even then, is it even guaranteed a Republican would win the 2nd ballot? Elder is currently leading, but there's a ton who say their "undecided" (aka Newsom supporters) and whether they vote on that question at all or coalesce behind a Democrat would make a decent difference.

VA 2021: Lean D

I had previously thought of this as Likely D, but even the polling has been surprisingly close. I do think that Virginia has trended so far to the left that it's still a long shot, but a narrow win by Youngkin is possible if everything goes right. I expect McAuliffe to win by more like 4-7.

NJ 2021: Likely D

Not much to say, Phil Murphy should win pretty easily, but not in a landslide. I don't think Phil Murphy is getting any crossover appeal and New Jersey still has a large base of Republicans (typically low 40's), so I rate it Likely D just in case a freak accident were to occur in an off-year with the disproportionate turnout.

As far as 2022 goes, I just want to chime in to say this: We are at a crossroads in regards to Joe Biden's approval. If it slips any further than it has now, it is overwhelmingly likely Republicans will take both chambers of Congress in 2022. Even without that factor, the enthusiasm factor always helps the out party in midterms. If the approval stays the same, I still think they'd lose both chambers, but it would be limited losses that they could more easily get back in 2024 (for the House). My full expectation is that (as people are probably sick of me telling) the polls will be very unreliable in terms of predicting margins in races. I expect Democrats to lead the generic ballot for most of the way, probably all the way through. Democrats will probably lead in the competitive Biden +1/2 states. In the Senate particularly, since all the competitive races are in those "barely Biden" states I think people are going to be very misled if the polling is wrong again, and they could all go one way at the end and give Republicans the 54 seats that are possible. The House I think will be "better" for the forecasters but still not great. It's much easier for the Democrat hacks in the election punditry to blame it on gerrymandering (as they will) so there'll be a greater expectation of that chamber going Republican. But beyond that there are significant differences in how competitive districts lean, whereas all the Senate races are in states that have similar partisan makeups, so I think it's harder to get as much wrong.

The thing about 2022 is that Republicans don't need a "red wave" to win both chambers. They simply need a slightly better than 2020 result. But a red wave would put the Republicans in a good position to hold both chambers into 2024, where they could win the presidency and get a trifecta (or, in the event they lose narrowly, stop a President Harris from doing much). In the Senate, if Democrats don't limit their losses or gain a seat or two in 2022, it is VERY unlikely they'll get it in 2024 when they'll be defending WV, MT, and OH as well as many other purple states. A red ripple could mean Democrats take back the House in 2024 with a good year and at least keep the Senate close. So I see 2022 as an important midterm for the medium-term power struggle of this country, but it might not feel significant in the short-term if there aren't many surprises.

Very intriguing and well put together post. I'm impressed.
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« Reply #44 on: August 05, 2021, 03:15:19 PM »
« Edited: August 05, 2021, 07:25:50 PM by Mr. Kanye West »

Cali recall is a Tossup polls today show NEWSOM recalled

VA GOV IS A TOSSUP TOO TMAC MAY LOSE

NJ SAFE D



This could be 2021/2022 map


We need Prediction maps
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #45 on: September 13, 2021, 11:13:31 AM »

As far as 2022 goes, I just want to chime in to say this: We are at a crossroads in regards to Joe Biden's approval. If it slips any further than it has now, it is overwhelmingly likely Republicans will take both chambers of Congress in 2022. Even without that factor, the enthusiasm factor always helps the out party in midterms. If the approval stays the same, I still think they'd lose both chambers, but it would be limited losses that they could more easily get back in 2024 (for the House). My full expectation is that (as people are probably sick of me telling) the polls will be very unreliable in terms of predicting margins in races. I expect Democrats to lead the generic ballot for most of the way, probably all the way through. Democrats will probably lead in the competitive Biden +1/2 states. In the Senate particularly, since all the competitive races are in those "barely Biden" states I think people are going to be very misled if the polling is wrong again, and they could all go one way at the end and give Republicans the 54 seats that are possible. The House I think will be "better" for the forecasters but still not great. It's much easier for the Democrat hacks in the election punditry to blame it on gerrymandering (as they will) so there'll be a greater expectation of that chamber going Republican. But beyond that there are significant differences in how competitive districts lean, whereas all the Senate races are in states that have similar partisan makeups, so I think it's harder to get as much wrong.

The thing about 2022 is that Republicans don't need a "red wave" to win both chambers. They simply need a slightly better than 2020 result. But a red wave would put the Republicans in a good position to hold both chambers into 2024, where they could win the presidency and get a trifecta (or, in the event they lose narrowly, stop a President Harris from doing much). In the Senate, if Democrats don't limit their losses or gain a seat or two in 2022, it is VERY unlikely they'll get it in 2024 when they'll be defending WV, MT, and OH as well as many other purple states. A red ripple could mean Democrats take back the House in 2024 with a good year and at least keep the Senate close. So I see 2022 as an important midterm for the medium-term power struggle of this country, but it might not feel significant in the short-term if there aren't many surprises.

This is a post I made more than a month ago. Since then, it's pretty clear which road we've traveled down thus far, and it's a tough sell to say he'll rebound to pre-August levels. Joe Biden's approval is now underwater in the mid-40's, intensity opposition among Republicans has spiked to levels similar to Democrats w/Trump, and even limited generic ballot polling has a dead heat in the same polls where Biden's approval is even or slightly overwater. It's clear we're in a different political environment now than we were in the first half of this year. I think if this continues being the case, we're going to look back at late summer/early fall of 2021 as the defining period of time where the environment shifted. This is looking like it'll be anywhere from 4 to 12 points more Republican than the 2020 elections. 2018, in comparison, was about 10 points more Dem on congressional ballot than 2016.

These are the changes I'm making to my Senate ratings:



Republicans: 53 (+3)
Democrats: 47 (-3)

AK: Likely R --> Safe R

This is partially an environment shift, and partially a shift based on me rethinking the plausibility of a Dem winning. It's likely that (as in the past few elections involving Murkowski), the actual Democrat gets a far lower percentage than usual because Murkowski has some Dem voters in her coalition along with a few (and shrinking) moderate R's. The Dem voters are very likely to rank Murkowski ahead of the challenging Republican, but many of Murkowski's voters may still rank the other Republican ahead of the Democrat, leading to virtually no chance of the Democrat succeeding even if they were to make it to top 2. To conclude, I see this more being a race between Murkowski and the insurgent Republican, not as D vs R. It's Safe R with the caveat that it may be competitive between the two Republicans.

These shifts are all based on political environment alone. Shifts based on candidates and state polling may come later.

AZ: Tilt R --> Lean R
GA: Tilt R --> Lean R
NV: Tilt R --> Lean R
NH: Lean D --> Tilt D (Lean R w/Sununu)
NC: Lean R --> Likely R
OH: Likely R --> Safe R
PA: Tilt R --> Lean R

I had briefly post-Portman retirement gave a very slight chance to Democrats here. But with this environment, I'm not even going to entertain Ohio going blue when Trump won it by 8 again and even edgelord Josh Mandel is leading Ryan in a poll that way overestimated Democrats in 2020.

Keep in mind Lean still implies a competitive race with a 10-30% chance of winning, it's just one side has a sizable advantage. Likely is mostly non-competitive though with minimal chance.

Now, I don't expect many people to agree with me. In fact, most of this forum, and the "expert" election prognosticators will likely keep the belwether races (AZ, GA, NV, NH, WI, PA) as mostly toss-ups the entire election season. But I'm basing this on what we've observed in the past 4 years and what the environment looks like now and likely in the future, and it's just not that likely that Democrats will prevail in states they barely won in 2020, while the political environment looks 5-10 points worse for them. And I think this forum will drag it's feet with that reality, I don't think many people want to admit that is the case, because they want Democrats to win.

Let's just play a hypothetical here. The generic ballot looks 6 points worse for Dems already. Biden's approval is a larger 12 points underwater compared to his pre-election polling. Let's just swing every battleground here 6 points Republican from 2020 results on the federal level and see what happens.

State: Presidential, House, Senate (if applicable)

AZ: R+5.5, R+6, R+3.5
GA: R+5.5, R+8, R+7 (reg), R+4 (runoff)
NV: R+3.5, R+4
NH: D+1.5, D+1.5, D+11
NC: R+7, n/a, R+7.5
OH: R+14, R+20
PA: R+5, R+7
WI: R+5.5, R+9

"But not every state has uniform swing". Yeah I get it, some will have less and some will have more, which will balance throughout the country. These numbers clearly demonstrate that there is LARGE room for chance/error on the part of Republican candidates and campaigns. Some of these may get adjusted next year back to toss-up or perhaps even Likely if there's large circumstantial evidence that they're not swinging with the rest of the country. But until then, I feel pretty comfortable with this, even if the rest of the election prediction mafia doesn't. The only one I feel a little shaky on is Nevada, which could remain Tilt R for all I care.

Here's how I view the overall picture.

Senate Control: Lean R (closer to Likely)
House Control: Lean R --> Likely R

While we're waiting for House districts to be drawn, I can only make some educated guesses based on what I know about the environment so far. Earlier in the year, I would've guessed mid 230's as far as a specific number for Republicans. Now I think mid-240's is actually more likely than mid-230's. But I would say 240-245 would be my best guess right now, with Republicans winning the PV by around 5%.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #46 on: September 13, 2021, 11:40:43 AM »
« Edited: September 30, 2021, 10:08:08 AM by ElectionsGuy »

While I'm at it, here's governors. I'm more likely to be cautious early on (not use safe as much) when it comes to these races.



Republicans: 31 (+4)
Democrats: 19 (-4)

Likely D: CO, IL, MD, NJ, OR, RI
Lean D: CT, ME, MN, NM, VA
Tilt D:
Tilt R: MI, NV
Lean R: AZ, GA, KS, WI
Likely R: FL, IA, TX

I always assume the incumbent runs if they're eligible. This may change some things, especially in New England. By far the most vulnerable incumbent is Laura Kelly, followed by Tony Evers. The best targets for Democrats are Arizona and Georgia, but that's about all that's available for picking.
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« Reply #47 on: September 13, 2021, 03:44:49 PM »

WI isn't Lean R Cook changed the rating to Tossup
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #48 on: September 13, 2021, 04:31:32 PM »

September Update (with changes since January):



Changes in favor of Republicans:

AK: Lean R -> Likely R*
AZ: Toss-up -> Lean R**
MO: Likely R -> Safe R***
GA: Lean R -> Toss-up

Changes in favor of Democrats:

CO: Likely D -> Safe D
IL: Likely D -> Safe D
MD: Likely D -> Safe D
OR: Likely D -> Safe D
VT: Likely D -> Safe D

*I agree completely with ElectionsGuy here in the sense that I see this turning into a Murkowski vs. generic/reliable R race fairly soon. I also doubt that RCV necessarily improves Murkowski's odds here, especially if sheís perceived as the de-facto D candidate and there arenít enough Republicans willing to rank her at all. Overall, this will be the toughest reelection race of her career, but Iím not ready to write her off yet, especially with the state's D trend and the somewhat peculiar coalitions in that state.

**I am less confident about this change than about the PA call, but all the dominoes will need to fall into place for Kelly to hold on in a state which most Republican presidents not named Donald Trump would have managed to hold. Thereís not a dramatic difference between the competitiveness of AZ and that of NV/NH/GA and I still expect most of the competitive races to break for the same party, but I see this race being a little closer to NC than NV/NH/GA in terms of what it would take for Republicans to lose it.

***The Blunt retirement improves Republican prospects of holding this seat ó itís not like he would have lost the seat in this environment either, but in case you were wondering why I ever had that state at Likely R in the first place, it was mostly due to the incumbent's unusually pronounced tendency to underperform. Much like in 2010, the environment alone has taken that seat off the table for the Democrats.

As you can see with some of these, I was very (and arguably too) cautious about some of the races in very D or R states. Two major developments have changed that: (a) The national environment has worsened for Democrats to the point that it would now take a substantial bounceback for them to hold AZ or PA; (b) paralleled by this R intensity is a rigid partisanship in blue states even at the non-federal level, which makes any state beyond the Big Four unattainable for Republicans (I was debating keeping CO at Likely D, but I donít see the coalition being there even in a 2010-type Republican year). The shift in Biden's approval/the environment (which, frankly, has disproven my suspicion that Biden was guaranteed a 47%/48% floor no matter what due to inflexible partisanship ó his floor is probably closer to 44%) can mostly be attributed to (in about this order) increased resentment against COVID policies, very unpopular D stances/messaging on cultural issues, concerns over a recession and reckless government spending, and to same extent the Afghanistan debacle (whose impact has been overblown, however).

With regard to the Toss-up races, I think Republicans have the best chance in NH (if Sununu runs), followed very closely by NV. However, it was an extremely close call between NH and NV, and Iím going to emphasize again that thereís still a real tendency among many to underestimate the D lean/trend of NH and to overstate its 'elasticity' (not unlike in the case of IA). While I see NH (and ME) trending to the right in 2022/2024, Iím sympathetic to any argument that envisions NV flipping before NH and would not at all be surprised if Hassan and Laxalt both won narrowly. Turnout patterns will make the Warnock seat more winnable in a regular midterm election as opposed to an off-year runoff, but Walker, who I think has more potential to make some inroads into 'non-ancestrally-Republican' D areas than people give him credit for, will want to avoid a runoff (and hope for no Libertarian candidate on the ballot) to truly feel good about his chances. There are few states in which the trends are even less on the Republicans' side than GA, and itís going to take a lot to overcome those shifts even in a favorable environment. Unlike in VA in 2014, there just arenít many rural/small-town voters left to convert, which is why the path is going to have to run through supercharged R turnout, inroads into majority-minority areas, and efforts to claw back some of the suburban and exurban losses (in that order) ó a tall order.

For the first time, I have Republicans favored to flip the Senate just by winning the Lean/Likely/Safe R states. I will try to place considerably more emphasis on the so-called 'fundamentals' (i.e., most recent presidential results, partisan lean relative to the nation, favorable/unfavorable demographic trends) over deceptive polling (e.g. Sununu sweeping NH while Kelly is reelected in a landslide) or even polling in general, especially after a series of failures since 2014 and a particularly salient one in 2020. The VA/NJ/CA results will further underscore the problems of relying too much on early polling over actual math (Youngkin was always going to come closer to winning than Elder even when polls were showing a McAuliffe blowout and the CA-GOV recall tied).

Will post my House/Governor predictions/updates later, but I have Republicans flipping the governorships of KS, MI, WI, and two of PA/NV/ME and controlling no fewer than 225 but no more than 235 House seats (with the median outcome of 230 being most likely). The one thing I would point out is that Iím pretty confident that redistricting/gerrymandering will favor Democrats more than Republicans this cycle, which (combined with high D engagement/partisanship) is why the House is not considerably more likely to flip than the Senate or Republicans making lopsided (i.e., >30 seats) gains in the House is highly unlikely in my view.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #49 on: September 13, 2021, 04:32:34 PM »

AZ going R no
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