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January 21, 2021, 05:37:04 AM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor
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Author Topic: Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor  (Read 4951 times)
Canis
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« Reply #25 on: January 09, 2021, 05:01:15 PM »

Updated no tossup ratings
Governor

Senate

Still very much subject to change seeing as how were pretty far out from it
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #26 on: January 11, 2021, 07:23:14 AM »

I'm just going to do Senate for now because Governor races can be very difficult to predict early on.

Early 2022 Senate Ratings



To start off, I'm going to take what we've learned about 2020 results and assume a Lean GOP environment, not even a GOP wave as that's too premature, but history suggests at least a Lean R environment is likely.

1. Arizona (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Odds are, Kelly will get a better opponent than McSally in a state where Republicans already (very narrowly) won the congressional vote in 2020. He is highly vulnerable in a Lean R environment, after only winning by 2-3 against McSally in 2020, but he did overperform both Biden and House Dems which is why I think it's a toss-up and not Lean R. ~60% chance it flips GOP
2. Nevada (Toss-Up/Tilt R): As a state that votes to the left of Arizona, one might wonder why I'm rating it the same way. A few reasons, 1) Cortez-Masto performed like an average Democrat in 2016 2) The state has been trending Republican over the past few cycles (In 2018 and 2020 Democrats underperformed the national swing) 3) She's vulnerable to a turnout drop with younger voters and minorities that could disproportionately hurt Democrats. However, it still remains to be seen whether GOP can keep their gains with Latinos and certain Asians and if they can nominate a good candidate. ~55% chance it flips GOP
3. Pennsylvania (Toss-Up/Tilt R): Largely due to Toomey's retirement, and the fact that this state has been consistently slightly less GOP than Wisconsin in 2018 and 2020. But, GOP already winning the House vote in 2020 doesn't bode well for Democrats in a Lean R environment. ~65% chance it stays GOP
4. New Hampshire (Lean D): In 2020, there was a decent swing to the left in New Hampshire, however, Hassan is highly vulnerable depending on the opponent she gets. If it's Sununu, this race changes drastically. This is a state that can swing double digits in 2 years pretty easily. But she starts out with a small advantage as an incumbent in a state that leans towards her party. ~70% chance it stays Dem
5. Georgia (Lean R): This rating assumes Loeffler wins since that is my prediction right now. If not, I will change it to toss-up but tilt R. Definitely a toss-up otherwise but Republicans should be able to win narrowly in an R-leaning environment, even Loefller who is subpar. It just remains to be seen if the trends can overpower the environment. I lean towards no, as usually the opposition party claws back with some previous defections in favorable midterms. ~70% chance it stays GOP.
6. North Carolina (Lean R): Burr retiring is actually good for the party but the candidate could be anybody. But, anybody should be able to keep or outperform the margins done by Republicans in 2020. ~75% chance it stays GOP
7. Wisconsin (Lean R): It remains to be determined if Johnson runs for re-election, but assuming he does he should be able to win on the environment alone. He's polarizing and "controversial" but he's won before when he was declared dead against the rerun of Feingold and should be able to win considering Republicans already won the congressional vote by 3% in 2020. ~80% chance it stays GOP.
8. Alaska (Likely R): There is a good chance of silly nonsense happening with Murkowski in her primary, as it always seems to happen, but there is a minimal chance that it has enough positive impact for Democrats in the general. But the state has been trending Democratic. ~90% chance it stays GOP.
9. Florida (Likely R): Rubio already overperformed for a Republican in 2016 against a 'rising star' opponent. He should have no problem winning easily in 2020 with the trends of the last few cycles. ~95% chance it stays GOP
10. Colorado (Likely D): In what would've been a competitive race cycles ago, Colorado posted the 2nd strongest Dem swing of any state in 2020, and is one of the most college-educated states in the nation. It flipping is now a longshot that can only be done if absolutely everything goes right for Republicans. Bennet should be able to do better than he did even in 2016. ~95% chance it stays Dem

Everything else is safe, or if it does become non-safe it'll be very likely. It'll be interesting to look back and see how accurate this assessment is. I've looked back at my early 2018 guesses and they were okay but had some glaring misses (like Heitkamp easily winning in early 2017). I think these should be more accurate as these senate elections have become all too predictable.

Georgia gets shifted up to the #2 spot and is Toss-Up/Tilt R with about 55% chance of a flip. It would be #1 based on PVI and candidate performance, but adding in trends and my bias in predicting Georgia shifts it slightly more left.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #27 on: January 15, 2021, 08:38:01 AM »

Likely: Not competitive at this point, but has the potential to become competitive

Lean: Competitive but one party has an advantage

Tilt: Competitive but one party has a slight advantage

Toss-up : The most competitive races which either party has a good chance of winning


SENATE



GOVERNOR



GA-GOV: Toss-up -> Lean D; GA-SEN: Toss-up -> Lean D, rest stays the same. GA is not safe, but that election was more than an ominous sign for GA Republicans, and I donít think itís wise to expect so-called 'moderate' suburbanites/exurbanites who turned out for a runoff to vote out a generic R in order to give Biden a trifecta to 'snap back' in 2022. Itís possible that turnout patterns will be more R-friendly, but even with that in mind, itís hard to see Kemp holding on or Warnock losing before some other vulnerable D incumbents.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #28 on: January 16, 2021, 10:03:55 AM »
« Edited: January 16, 2021, 11:20:28 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Likely: Not competitive at this point, but has the potential to become competitive

Lean: Competitive but one party has an advantage

Tilt: Competitive but one party has a slight advantage of

Toss-up : The most competitive races which either party has a good chance of winning


SENATE



GOVERNOR



GA-GOV: Toss-up -> Lean D; GA-SEN: Toss-up -> Lean D, rest stays the same. GA is not safe, but that election was more than an ominous sign for GA Republicans, and I donít think itís wise to expect so-called 'moderate' suburbanites/exurbanites who turned out for a runoff to vote out a generic R in order to give Biden a trifecta to 'snap back' in 2022. Itís possible that turnout patterns will be more R-friendly, but even with that in mind, itís hard to see Kemp holding on or Warnock losing before some other vulnerable D incumbents.

Still think WI is Lean R, NO double NO
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Pericles
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« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2021, 08:44:15 PM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #30 on: January 16, 2021, 09:11:19 PM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen
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Pericles
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« Reply #31 on: January 16, 2021, 09:17:50 PM »


This is assuming that the national environment is noticeably more Republican, likely a red wave environment, than the 2020 elections. Given midterm history, that has to be the default scenario. It's worth noting though that even a small shift from 2020, where Democrats still win the popular vote, would be enough for Republicans to win most of the competitive races and make a net gain in the Senate.

The hardest calls were Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. With Georgia, practically everything went right for Democrats in the runoffs. Trends are very strong there, but I expect a slight Republican improvement in the suburbs with Trump gone. Nevada is a swing state, just one where Democrats have been lucky in recent cycles, but now it has bad trends for them. It is definitely flippable in the right environment, though the quality of the Republican candidate is unclear. New Hampshire is presuming Sununu runs, he is a strong candidate. It is clearly a swingy state and the Biden +7% margin doesn't mean much, and Hassan's bare win from 2016 is definitely vulnerable in a worse national environment. This is not going to be an easy pickup for Republicans though.

That map won't happen

Just to clarify, this is the party I think is favored in each individual race. I don't expect Republicans to win all the competitive races.
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