Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:52:27 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]
Author Topic: Early 2022 ratings for Senate and Governor  (Read 22395 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: February 23, 2022, 03:30:02 PM »

It's not 2010 anymore it's 4 percent understand 2010 had 11 percent unemployment

It's VBM not same day that's why we won 80M votes
Logged
Thunder98
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,570
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: April 23, 2022, 07:38:31 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2022, 11:36:56 AM by Thunder98 »

New 270 maps for Sen and Gov races. What's your opinion of my R nut maps Olawakandi?

Senate


Governors


Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: April 24, 2022, 12:57:49 PM »

News flash SISOLAK is winning 46/33 the chances of an R nut map is diminish
Logged
One Term Floridian
swamiG
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,042


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: May 02, 2022, 05:16:43 PM »


Been a while since I've seen a D Nut map in this environment lol
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,293
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: May 03, 2022, 12:34:48 AM »



Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: May 05, 2022, 03:08:46 AM »





CCM is leading abd so is Hassan
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: May 09, 2022, 04:10:00 AM »



NM and ME now "Tilt D". I'm open to Minnesota being that too, I just haven't seen evidence that Walz is in too much trouble.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: May 09, 2022, 08:40:50 AM »



NM and ME now "Tilt D". I'm open to Minnesota being that too, I just haven't seen evidence that Walz is in too much trouble.

Sisolak and Whiter and Shapiro are gonna win, Sisolak was leading Heller 46/33 and James isnt beating Whitmer
Logged
hyouzel the predictor
hyouzel
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 497
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: May 12, 2022, 09:34:26 AM »



Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: May 19, 2022, 03:53:47 AM »

https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/51llN3.png

https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/gkN2.png
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: May 31, 2022, 11:23:10 AM »
« Edited: May 31, 2022, 11:58:22 AM by Laki »

AL: Shelby retires. R wins
AK: Lean R, but D's might take it. Murkowski is vulnerable for a primary challenge, and that won't make the general easier. If she loses the primary, all possibilities are open. I expect the environment to be tough, but internal division and Alaska's distance might make it considerably more left to the nation, perhaps D+10 which could be enough.
AZ: Lean D. I think Kelly is going to be a strong incumbent, who has the capacity to survive the red wave.
AR: Safe R
CA: Safe D but with stronger opposition than expected from the progressive wing.
CO: Likely D. It's going to be a lot closer, but Bennett is likely fine. They're not fond of the Trump era GOP, and it will keep trend D.
CT: Safe D
FL: Likely R. I suspect this will be a blow out. Tough environment for D's, strong incumbent(s), and most importantly a weak bench + organization
GA: toss-up. Let's await the results of the run-offs before we can make a guess, but I believe GA will be to the left of the national average, and Abrams might run again for governor.
HI: Safe D. Even Tulsi has no shot here.
ID: Safe R
IL: Safe D. Strong incumbent will keep it safe even in a R+10 environment
IN: Safe R
IA: Lean R. (Incumbent could retire now. Finkenauer/Scholten/Vilsack will likely not win in a tough environment, but this race might be open. Likely with Chuck
KS: Safe R
KY: Safe R
LA: Safe R
MD: Likely D. Hogan and a very favourable environment, could make this similar to MA 2010 or IL 2010. Polarization and racial divide would make it more unlikely than in those cases, but this far ahead, not safe. I could be seeing noise though
MO: Safe R
NV: Toss-up. CCM might be vulnerable in the environment I expect, but she'll do better than the national average.
NH: Lean R, possibly even likely R. Sununu will likely win. If Sununu doesn't run, i still think an Ayotte tier candidate is favoured. Hassan isn't exactly a strong incumbent, and midterms + this environment + (very) strong challenger will make it tough to overcome.
NY: Safe D but just like in CA i expect a primary challenge to gain traction. AOC won't do it though.
NC: Open election (and now was the moment to retire). Lean R with the environment I expect.
ND: Safe R
OH: Likely R. Could become safe, but I want to know who is going to run for the Democrats
OK: Safe R
OR: Likely D. I won't rule out an upset this far out, but the GOP has a weak bench, this state is hostile to them, and Wyden is probably fine. Borderline MD likely tier
PA: Open election, and Fetterman is a strong candidate. Democrats have several alternatives. Toss-up, but might be lean R because of the environment.
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
UT: Likely R. Almost certainly going to trend left in an tough environment, and I see some candidates who might make this a bit closer. It's borderline safe though.
VT: Lean D. This might be very vulnerable in a tough environment, esp. if Leahy retires and Phil Scott runs.
WA: Likely D. Similar to Oregon's rating. This might be D+8/+9 at the end, but there is potential for an upset, as Murray is a weak incumbent.
WI: Lean R. Could be toss-up, likely R or even be Safe R. I think the GOP keeps this one

Changes:

Alaska: Lean R -> Likely R/Murkowski
Arizona: Lean D -> Toss-up
Iowa: Lean R -> Safe R
Maryland: Likely D -> Safe D
New Hampshire: Lean R -> Toss-up
North Carolina: Lean R -> Likely R
Oregon: Likely D -> Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up -> Lean D
Vermont: Lean D -> Safe D

Same:
CO: Likely D
FL: Likely R
GA: toss-up
NV: toss-up
OH: Likely R
UT: Likely R
WA: Likely D
WI: Lean R

For toss-ups: gun to my head.

Arizona and Nevada flip to the Republicans
Democrats gain a pick-up in Pennsylvania
Georgia and New Hampshire stay D.



which would translate into 51-49 majority for Republicans.

Republicans will win the house as expected, with probably around 10-15 gains, although Democrats will probably also make some gains but I expect the overall change in general to be around 10-15 seats, and remember Republicans only need 5 seats i think?

For margins:

NC, FL, OH: high single digits R, perhaps even double digits
AZ and NV somewhat around R+2/R+3
WI R+4/R+5
GA nailbiter
NH D+2/D+3
PA i've classified as lean because I think the Democrats are favoured but probably around D+3. I feel like R's are messing up here.

In NC R's have a strong candidate and I feel like Biden in particular has problems in this state/area. VA also went to the R's for governor last year for example. Beesley doesn't seem a good/strong candidate with crossover appeal, while Budd might be one of the best recruits for the R's in the senate this year. R's seem less divided here, than in states like GA.

NV has a strong recruit too for the R's, and AZ/NV seems to be moving away from Biden. WI has incumbency advantage for Johnson and the state is moving away from Biden too. I hope Barnes can win but chances are low as Democrats will be mostly on the defence, esp. in states like GA which will become a highly nationalized race with much attention and that will require lots of resources, with on top of that probably the most followed/expensive governor's race too this year (although one could argue the PA senate race will be highly targetted by both camps too, esp. given recent events in PA).
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: June 02, 2022, 06:37:37 AM »

For governor

Logged
VirginiaAaron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 560
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -1.57

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: June 02, 2022, 09:59:15 PM »

Senate
Republican Party: 53 seats (+3)
Democratic Party: 47 seats (-3)

House of Representatives
Republican Party: 238 seats (+25)
Democratic Party: 197 seats (-25)

Governors
Republican Party: 29 states (+1)
Democratic Party: 21 states (-1)
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: June 02, 2022, 11:03:10 PM »



Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: June 04, 2022, 06:08:41 PM »
« Edited: June 04, 2022, 06:41:54 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »


We're gonna win WI/PA


Why do users make OR red and it's just a poll within the margin of error
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: June 08, 2022, 10:20:04 AM »

Another change (for senate)

AZ: Tossup -> Lean D

This means that I now project the Democrats to keep control of the senate after the 2022 elections.

My hunch says 2018 in reverse. Democrats look poised to lose lots of house seats, but I think Republicans are messing up in the senate, and I feel like a lot of losses will be in big states that don't have competitive senate seats.

Democrats gain PA and Republicans narrowly win NV effectively counteracting each gain, although Democrats can win NV which would than result in a net gain of 1 seat.
Logged
EastwoodS
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,847


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: June 08, 2022, 10:15:44 PM »

Another change (for senate)

AZ: Tossup -> Lean D

This means that I now project the Democrats to keep control of the senate after the 2022 elections.

My hunch says 2018 in reverse. Democrats look poised to lose lots of house seats, but I think Republicans are messing up in the senate, and I feel like a lot of losses will be in big states that don't have competitive senate seats.

Democrats gain PA and Republicans narrowly win NV effectively counteracting each gain, although Democrats can win NV which would than result in a net gain of 1 seat.
So true especially with how unpopular Democrats are, along with Biden
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: June 10, 2022, 02:57:03 PM »

Another change for governor

MI: Tilt D -> Likely D

The michigan GOP shenanigance might very well have laid the pavework for a whitmer 2028 campaign, while Whitmer's political career very well could have been ended this year.
Logged
Suburban Republican
omelott
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,064
Israel



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: July 14, 2022, 06:11:00 PM »

General synopsis: The midterms go a little better for Republicans than expected, with Republicans netting 4 governorships and 4 senate seats.

 In the governor races, Republicans pull upset wins in Oregon and Minnesota due to the presence of third party candidates on the ballot. Republicans narrowly defeat Sisolak in Nevada as the Reid machine collapses and Evers in Wisconsin as the Walker machine brings Republicans back to life in the state. Kansas is a landslide for Republicans as the state returns to its normal partisan lean. Mastriano and Lake win modestly in Pennsylvania and Arizona as those races have no incumbent, despite being controversial candidates. Democrats narrowly hold on in New Mexico, Michigan, and Maine. Illinois is unexpectedly close but Pritzker wins by a modest margin.




The senate map is more predictable. Democrats Kelly and Warnock narrowly lose in Arizona and Georgia despite being strong candidates due to the national environment. Hassan, too, loses in New Hampshire by less than a percentage point. Fetterman comes close to winning in Pennsylvania and outperforms Shapiro but also falls short. North Carolina and Wisconsin are  modest wins for Republicans. Colorado and Oregon are unexpectedly close.

Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: July 15, 2022, 12:53:10 AM »

No it hasn't you know that
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.064 seconds with 12 queries.