2020 Presidential Predictions (General)
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January 17, 2022, 02:04:35 PM

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  2020 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 108331 times)
Dabbing Santa
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« Reply #75 on: November 08, 2020, 08:44:21 PM »

My forecast:



Actual results:



Postmortem on my forecast:

I predicted the wrong winner in three states (FL, GA, NC)

I overestimated Democrat support in the Midwest by a significant margin.

My most accurate states were Texas and Minnesota. The least accurate? Ohio and Iowa.

Here are my predicted margins from before the election vs the actual margins as of Nov 8th, 2020. We won't know Alaska for a while, so I'll leave that one out of the equation.

Alaska:   +12 Trump   N/A
Montana:   +12 Trump   +16.3 Trump   (4.3)
Texas:   +5 Trump      +5.8 Trump     (0.8)
Iowa:   +2 Trump      +8.2 Trump     (6.2)
Georgia:   +1 Trump           +0.2 Biden      (1.2)
Ohio:   +1 Trump      +8.2 Trump     (7.2)
N Carolina: +0.5 Biden       +1.4 Trump     (1.9)
Florida:   +1 Biden      +3.4 Trump     (4.4)
Arizona:   +2 Biden      +0.5 Biden      (1.5)
Nevada:   +5 Biden      +2.4 Biden      (2.6)
Pennsylvania: +5 Biden   +0.6 Biden      (4.4)
Wisconsin:   +5 Biden      +0.7 Biden      (4.3)
New Hampshire: +6 Biden   +7.2 Biden      (1.2)
Michigan:   +8 Biden      +2.7 Biden      (5.3)
Minnesota:+8 Biden      +7.2 Biden      (0.8)
Maine:   +10 Biden      +8.7 Biden      (1.3)
Colorado:   +12 Biden      +13.2 Biden    (1.2)
Virginia:   +12 Biden      +9.6 Biden      (2.4)
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Dabbing Santa
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« Reply #76 on: November 16, 2020, 11:35:51 AM »

Alaska update...

Forecast: +12 Trump

Actual: +10.8 Trump
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #77 on: December 07, 2020, 04:46:26 PM »

Here's my final 2020 prediction:



Trump/Pence - 289 (47.0%)
Biden/Harris - 249 (51.5%)

Safe: 100% certainty
Likely: >90% certainty
Lean: 70-90% certainty
Tilt: 50-70% certainty

Safe Biden: 196
Likely Biden: 14
Lean Biden: 12
Tilt Biden: 27
Tilt Trump: 41
Lean Trump: 60
Likely Trump: 63
Safe Trump: 125

State (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AZ: Trump 49.5%, Biden 49.0%
CO: Biden 53.5%, Trump 44.0%
FL: Trump 50.5%, Biden 48.5%
GA: Trump 51.0%, Biden 48.0%
IA: Trump 52.5%, Biden 46.0%
ME: Biden 51.5%, Trump 45.5%
 ME2: Trump 52.0%, Biden 45.0%
MI: Biden 50.0%, Trump 49.0%
MN: Biden 50.0%, Trump 48.5%
 NE2: Biden 49.5%, Trump 49.0%
NV: Biden 50.5%, Trump 46.5%
NH: Biden 51.0%, Trump 47.5%
NM: Biden 53.0%, Trump 44.0%
NC: Trump 50.5%, Biden 48.0%
OH: Trump 53.0%, Biden 45.5%
PA: Trump 49.5%, Biden 49.5%
TX: Trump 51.0%, Biden 47.0%
WI: Trump 49.5%, Biden 49.0%

My bias (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

NPV: Even
AZ: Trump +1
CO: Trump +4
FL: Biden +1.5
GA: Trump +3
IA: Biden +1.5
ME: Trump +3
ME2: Biden +0.5
MI: Trump +2
MN: Trump +5.5
NE2: Trump +6
NV: Biden +1.5
NH: Trump +4
NM: Trump +2
NC: Trump +1
OH: Biden +0.5
PA: Trump +1
TX: Biden +2
WI: Trump +1

On Average: Trump +1.5

I nailed the popular vote pretty good, but I overestimated Trump slightly in the key swing states. My explanation is that I thought Biden would do better than he did in California (I would've guessed more than 30 points), Texas, Florida, and New York too. As a result, my battleground state predictions were too right-leaning. But the only places where I was really off were Minnesota and NE-02. I underestimated how well Trump would do with Hispanics overall, even though I did predict he'd do better, and underestimated how badly he'd do with white college-educated voter, even though I thought there'd be more erosion but not as much as there actually was. So really for me, it was a case of underestimating the extent of things I expected. I also thought he'd do better in some working-class white areas carried by Clinton like Erie PA and the Iron Range in Minnesota, and that didn't happen other than Mahoning County OH. It's weird to me that Ohio is the only place where this happened, but that's what happened. Definitely one of the few areas I got wrong this election.
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Dabbing Santa
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« Reply #78 on: January 04, 2021, 05:27:21 PM »

When will the scores be posted? Anxiously waiting! Smiley
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Anaphylactic-Statism
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« Reply #79 on: January 28, 2021, 10:50:04 PM »

Any updates on the scoring?
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SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #80 on: February 03, 2021, 04:10:24 AM »

Liep usually updates scoring when he makes the new maps, when he makes 2021 Gov maps, the scoring usually updates, but we don't know when that is
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Dabbing Santa
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« Reply #81 on: February 20, 2021, 07:06:49 PM »


A photo of me, waiting
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California8429
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« Reply #82 on: April 07, 2021, 06:40:33 PM »


yup
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Anaphylactic-Statism
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« Reply #83 on: June 21, 2021, 12:21:57 PM »

GIVE ME SCORES OR GIVE ME DEATH
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Dabbing Santa
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« Reply #84 on: June 21, 2021, 06:22:42 PM »


Yeah, what is up with Dave recently?  Hope everything is ok
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Lone Star Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #85 on: June 26, 2021, 03:36:59 PM »

Something I've noticed...

No republican presidential candidate has ever won the compiled prediction map in Atlas history, not even 2004 (though it was close).
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Anaphylactic-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #86 on: June 26, 2021, 10:16:55 PM »

Something I've noticed...

No republican presidential candidate has ever won the compiled prediction map in Atlas history, not even 2004 (though it was close).

What's weirder is that the forum's 2008 mock election randomly went really strongly to McCain.
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Pro-NAFTA, Pro-Naphtha
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« Reply #87 on: August 01, 2021, 07:30:50 PM »

Is Dave OK?
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SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #88 on: August 01, 2021, 11:15:17 PM »

No prediction maps
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #89 on: August 22, 2021, 09:40:20 PM »

Something I've noticed...

No republican presidential candidate has ever won the compiled prediction map in Atlas history, not even 2004 (though it was close).

And they never will. It might literally be since 1988 that the election conventional wisdom has not predicted a Republican victory. The Bush elections are the major question mark. I find it doubtful we'll go into an election in the next 20 years expecting a Republican candidate more likely to win.
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AGA
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« Reply #90 on: August 27, 2021, 05:34:12 PM »

Looks like scores were finally posted. Got 89.3% accuracy, ranked 35 out of 683. Not bad I guess.
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AGA
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« Reply #91 on: August 27, 2021, 05:36:21 PM »

Something I've noticed...

No republican presidential candidate has ever won the compiled prediction map in Atlas history, not even 2004 (though it was close).

What's weirder is that the forum's 2008 mock election randomly went really strongly to McCain.

Late, but the explanation is here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=399478.msg7602260#msg7602260
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Anaphylactic-Statism
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« Reply #92 on: August 27, 2021, 05:56:02 PM »

Something I've noticed...

No republican presidential candidate has ever won the compiled prediction map in Atlas history, not even 2004 (though it was close).

What's weirder is that the forum's 2008 mock election randomly went really strongly to McCain.

Late, but the explanation is here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=399478.msg7602260#msg7602260

Thank you so much! That's super interesting!
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