Where to look for potential upsets
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 30, 2022, 11:36:51 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Where to look for potential upsets
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Where to look for potential upsets  (Read 2034 times)
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,252
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 03, 2022, 01:48:12 AM »

I will be taking a look at upset opportunities for both parties (mostly Republicans) in 2022.

CO-SEN

Republicans are feeling down about this state, especially since they lost Gardner by a decent margin in 2020. However, since the VA election Republicans have been thinking that with a similar type of candidate they can strike the right balance of appealing to Trump supporters and independents/moderate Republicans in the state. One recent GOP leaning poll showed a dead even race and most forecast this as Likely D. Still, likely is not safe and I do think the right republican could make this a race to watch.

MO-SEN

On the opposite side of the field is Missouri. With a normal GOP candidate, this seat is in safe GOP hands but former governor Eric Greitens is leading GOP primary polls. Greitens had a scandal ridden governorship and resigned. Democrats are hoping that him becoming the nominee puts this seat back in play. Kander came surprisingly close to winning this very seat in 2016 despite Trump winning on the same ballot by 19 points so this seat being in play despite a favorable GOP year nationwide isn't unheard of.

WA-SEN

This just recently emerged as a faint pickup opportunity for the GOP with a few polls showing a single digit race here and Sabato having moved the race to Likely D citing those polls and a likely solid Republican nominee on their side. Murray is still quite favored but if Smiley can successfully block attempts to tie her to Trump and runs a good campaign, this could be an interesting race to watch.

NM-GOV

Grisham is still favored but Republicans do have a potential ace up their sleeve with Mark Ronchetti. Ronchetti ran for the senate race in 2020 and outran Trump on the same ballot by about 4.5 points, cementing himself as a candidate to keep an eye on. The only poll that put these two candidates head to head showed just a one point gap between the two.
Logged
The Pieman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,429
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2022, 08:42:35 AM »

CT-GOV, OR-GOV, CT-SEN (good GOP candidate but maybe out of reach), OH-SEN (for dems)
Logged
Yupper
Newbie
*
Posts: 9


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2022, 09:12:36 PM »

Maine Governor has some upset potential. Mills is by no means a guarantee despite clearly being favored.
Logged
CentristRepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,502
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2022, 11:29:36 AM »

Maine Governor has some upset potential. Mills is by no means a guarantee despite clearly being favored.

I honestly think ME GOV is a likelier upset than CO SEN, MO SEN, WA SEN or NM GOV. ME was much closer in both 2016/2020 than the other states were, and GOV elections (especially in New England) are a lot less polarized than senate races.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,626
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2022, 07:48:38 PM »

For Democrats: GA-GOV and OH-SEN
Logged
Trumbull County #Populist for Tim Ryan
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,326
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2022, 08:01:52 PM »

Apparent hot take coming: FL-GOV (for Democrats), sure it's not particularly likely, but it's far more likely than MO SEN or OH SEN.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 70,053
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2022, 12:49:26 PM »

We haven't seen one poll in OH Sen or Gov it's Leans R but it's not safe likewise with MO Sen no polls since Traggy has is tied

S019 HAS AN R NUT MAP NV SISOLAK ISNT LOSING HE IS WINNING 46/33
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.201 seconds with 12 queries.