Can Marco Rubio win back Northern Virginia?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I love how this started out as a meme thread and then everyone started taking it seriously.

[Alben Barkley]

Let's dispel with this fiction that Northern Virginia doesn't know what it's doing. Northern Virginia knows exactly what it's doing.

I LOVE how five years later, he still hasn’t lived that down.

[VAR]

As someone from NoVA, I'm obviously right because I live here!!11! So IMO Fairfax County is Lean R because Rubio  won big there in the 2016 Republican primary. But, I mean demographics/recent election results still matter, so it could be Tossup or even Lean D.

Toss-Up at best for Democrats if Haley is the nominee tho

[Coolface Sock #42069]

As someone from NoVA, I'm obviously right because I live here!!11! So IMO Fairfax County is Lean R because Rubio  won big there in the 2016 Republican primary. But, I mean demographics/recent election results still matter, so it could be Tossup or even Lean D.

Toss-Up at best for Democrats if Haley is the nominee tho

Not enough emojis, didn’t read

[ElectionsGuy]

I can't wait for the day that a post-Trump Republican does worse than Trump in areas like northern Virginia that Trump was supposed to be a bad fit for.

[kwabbit]

Win back as in win Fairfax County? Of course not. But nobody Daniel Gade still did better than Trump in Fairfax and I think Trump is pretty uniquely bad for Nova. I think Rubio, ostensibly a good fit for NoVA, could lose Fairfax by around 30 points.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia is very stable in its voting. It was Democratic from its admission to the Union until 1860 (Constitutional Union, whatever that was), then (after the Civil War) Democratic in its vote for President until 1952 except for one vote for Hoover in his electoral landslide of 1928. From 1952 to 2004 it missed voting Republican  for President in every election but the LBJ landslide against Goldwater. Then in 2008 it went for Obama and seems to be spiraling away from the GOP. Maybe it was close for Carter in 1976 and Clinton in the 1990's -- but any state that went twice against Clinton had to be strongly R back then.

The Republican Party will need to change its character drastically or have another Eisenhower or Reagan to force Virginia into the GOP fold. Do you compare Rubio to Ike or Reagan? I certainly don't. Republicans will need a realigning election to win Virginia again.

The Republican nominee is more likely to los Texas or win Minnesota than to win Virginia in 2024.

[ProgressiveModerate]

He might be able to stall NoVa for a cycle, but superNoVa is inevitable.

[jamestroll]

I have seen all this talk about Gade outperforming Trump in Northern Virginia. With the way the discussions have been you would think it is a massive 10 point + difference.

And Warner and Biden were only off by 0.1% in vote share in Fairfax County and Warner actually outperformed Biden by vote share in Prince William County.

[prag_prog]

I think it's extremely unlikely it tbh...maybe he can cut down the margins slightly if Dems nominee is someone like say AOC. Wasn't Romney/Ryan ticket in 2012 pretty appealing(atleast on paper) for an area like NOVA? Even then Obama still got extremely good margins in NOVA.

[2016]

It's not worth it to contest Virginia and Colorado IMO down the Road!

[Intell]

NoVa isn't the type of UMC area that's ever going to swing back to the republicans.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Democrats do not really have any room to grow in Nova anymore. Those counties probably swing GOP in 2024 but only marginally.

Without Trump on ballot I expected some reversion to the mean in rural and suburban voting habits but recent trends will still prevail.

people were saying Dems were maxed out in madison, but Biden improved in Dane

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Absolutely. To make this happen, the republicans in this thread need to do everything possible to make sure he is the 2024 nominee. We will be so owned.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Absolutely. To make this happen, the republicans in this thread need to do everything possible to make sure he is the 2024 nominee. We will be so owned.

Let's dispel this fiction . . .