Path to a popular vote victory for the Republicans in 2024

[Inmate Trump]

Republicans supposed "disadvantage" in the popular vote is oversold.  Any plausible Republican nominee *not named Donald Trump would have won the popular vote against Hillary Clinton in 2016, and said Republican would have probably been reelected (with a popular vote mandate) in 2020.

Maybe so but the problem here is that modern day Republican primary voters generally don't elect competent nominees.  Until and unless the GOP electorate starts supporting candidates based on honorable policy, integrity, morality and not simply how loudly they can run their mouths, your party will NEVER win a national popular vote.  If the GOP electorate continues to support the most racist and vile of their candidates, your party will NEVER win a national popular vote.  And the longer Trump denies the realty of his election loss, and that insanity continues to extend to his supporters, the GOP electorate will NEVER support a candidate who is genuine and compassionate, and your party will NEVER again win a national popular vote.

[Del Tachi]

Republicans supposed "disadvantage" in the popular vote is oversold.  Any plausible Republican nominee *not named Donald Trump would have won the popular vote against Hillary Clinton in 2016, and said Republican would have probably been reelected (with a popular vote mandate) in 2020.

Maybe so but the problem here is that modern day Republican primary voters generally don't elect competent nominees.  Until and unless the GOP electorate starts supporting candidates based on honorable policy, integrity, morality and not simply how loudly they can run their mouths, your party will NEVER win a national popular vote.  If the GOP electorate continues to support the most racist and vile of their candidates, your party will NEVER win a national popular vote.

lolwut?  The most recent GOP nominees before Trump were Mitt Romney and John McCain, who (if you listened to a lot of red avatars on this Forum) are practically regarded as the modern-day incarnations of Abraham Lincoln or something, lol

There is no reason Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Tim Scott or Tom Cotton couldn't win the national popular vote in 2024.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There is no reason Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Tim Scott or Tom Cotton couldn't win the national popular vote in 2024.

Amazingly heterogeneous group of candidates here. Pretty much all they have in common is being youngish and more conventionally articulate than Trump. De Santis and Scott in particular are at almost opposite ends of the "Trumpiness" spectrum ideologically and stylistically once you price in the fact that the entire mainstream of the Republican Party is Trumpier-than-not. De Santis would be in for a rude awakening if he tried to run the sort of campaign that Scott might run, and vice versa.

[Former President tack50]

The popular vote is basically worthless so this is irrelevant.

But their best bet is hoping the suburban trends reverse somewhat and that their gains among rural areas and minorities stick or even increase. Of course, that means a landslide in what actually matters (whether it is the House, the Senate or the Electoral College)

[Del Tachi]

There is no reason Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Tim Scott or Tom Cotton couldn't win the national popular vote in 2024.

Amazingly heterogeneous group of candidates here. Pretty much all they have in common is being youngish and more conventionally articulate than Trump. De Santis and Scott in particular are at almost opposite ends of the "Trumpiness" spectrum ideologically and stylistically once you price in the fact that the entire mainstream of the Republican Party is Trumpier-than-not. De Santis would be in for a rude awakening if he tried to run the sort of campaign that Scott might run, and vice versa.

yeah, that's the point.  Losing the popular vote isn't a GOP problem, it's a Trump problem.  There's a diverse set of Republican candidates who could win a national mandate in 2024.

[Nyvin]

Republicans supposed "disadvantage" in the popular vote is oversold.  Any plausible Republican nominee *not named Donald Trump would have won the popular vote against Hillary Clinton in 2016, and said Republican would have probably been reelected (with a popular vote mandate) in 2020.

Maybe so but the problem here is that modern day Republican primary voters generally don't elect competent nominees.  Until and unless the GOP electorate starts supporting candidates based on honorable policy, integrity, morality and not simply how loudly they can run their mouths, your party will NEVER win a national popular vote.  If the GOP electorate continues to support the most racist and vile of their candidates, your party will NEVER win a national popular vote.

lolwut?  The most recent GOP nominees before Trump were Mitt Romney and John McCain, who (if you listened to a lot of red avatars on this Forum) are practically regarded as the modern-day incarnations of Abraham Lincoln or something, lol

There is no reason Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Tim Scott or Tom Cotton couldn't win the national popular vote in 2024.

I think Trump's brand of nationalist populism actually "helped" him in the popular vote.   

Candidates like Ted Cruz or Tom Cotton would probably do significantly worse.   People like populist for whatever reason, they do everywhere.   They dislike the career politicians who just repeat party mantra all the time.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There is no reason Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Tim Scott or Tom Cotton couldn't win the national popular vote in 2024.

Amazingly heterogeneous group of candidates here. Pretty much all they have in common is being youngish and more conventionally articulate than Trump. De Santis and Scott in particular are at almost opposite ends of the "Trumpiness" spectrum ideologically and stylistically once you price in the fact that the entire mainstream of the Republican Party is Trumpier-than-not. De Santis would be in for a rude awakening if he tried to run the sort of campaign that Scott might run, and vice versa.

yeah, that's the point.  Losing the popular vote isn't a GOP problem, it's a Trump problem.  There's a diverse set of Republican candidates who could win a national mandate in 2024.

That makes sense, although I'm not convinced I agree with it. Cotton in particular might (would, imo, in a just world) be radioactive with the sorts of low-propensity young male minority voters Trump made inroads with this year, whereas several of the others would probably be able to solidify them. Conversely, I can't really see Driftless Area Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump types turning out yuge for the probable 2024 version of Lyin' Ted.

[DabbingSanta]

Basically a map like below where they massively improve in suburban areas to 2004-type levels and retain Trump's margins in rural and white working class areas.  I'd give it 1 in 20 odds tops.

[EastwoodS]

The issue is that Texas just isn't as Republican anymore, and that California is far too Democratic. In 2004 when Bush won the popular vote, he won Texas by 20+ points and kept California by less than 10%. However now, California is D+30 and Texas is single digits for the Republican party it is hard to win the popular vote.

Do you think, Republicans would be able to get California into the low double  digits eventually?

[Bootes Void]

The issue is that Texas just isn't as Republican anymore, and that California is far too Democratic. In 2004 when Bush won the popular vote, he won Texas by 20+ points and kept California by less than 10%. However now, California is D+30 and Texas is single digits for the Republican party it is hard to win the popular vote.

this is preety much it. Kerry only won 7 states by 10%+ while Bush won 22 over 10%+. Bush also won GA by 17, NC by 12, VA by 8, Az by 10 and won Colorado, NM, and others that would be difficult for republicans to replicate today. This is why I think it would be difficult for for republicans to win the popular vote unless they get these types of margins from solid red states

[Chips]

Find a way to keep Trump's 2020 coalition together while also finding a candidate that can appeal to moderates. I feel that someone like Josh Hawley could do this.

[anthonyjg]

Don't see it happening. The candidate that could do that isn't getting out of the primary and there's really no reason to even try it when the GOP coalition is so overrepresented in swing states.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

R.P. McM is one of only three left-of-center posters I've ever had on ignore and I see no reason to change that based on his contributions to this thread.

[pikachu]

Thanks to events, an unpopular President Biden or VP Harris (think Trump's approval ratings) is running against a Republican candidate who isn't totally repulsive? Like it's not that hard to picture. Sure, Generic D might have an advantage over Generic R (though do we really know that?) and it's pretty clear that Republicans don't have to win the popular vote to win the presidency, but none of the precludes a Republican from winning the popular vote. Democrats have a bad tendency to overstate the winning the PV in 7 of the 8 elections thing - it's a good illustration of why the EC is f[inks]ing bad system and is a fun argument to use during judicial confirmations, but if the Democrats win the EC in 2000 or 2016, you're probably looking at different results in the future from what happened in real life and it's more likely than not the 7/8 record doesn't hold.   

[R.P. McM]

R.P. McM is one of only three left-of-center posters I've ever had on ignore and I see no reason to change that based on his contributions to this thread.

The truth hurts, unfortunately. But y'all can censor me to your heart's content, so have at it. I'm sure the white working-class will stop supporting GOP candidates some time before the sun explodes.

What I find so humorous is that tens of millions of Republicans just voted for a racist, authoritarian sexual predator who attempted to steal the election, but I'm the bad guy for saying mean (but accurate) things about them on an obscure internet forum. LOL.

[Alcibiades]

Basically a map like below where they massively improve in suburban areas to 2004-type levels and retain Trump's margins in rural and white working class areas.  I'd give it 1 in 20 odds tops.

Assuming universal national swing, Trump could actually have won the popular vote this year while losing MN, NH and NE-02.

[here2view]

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[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Republicans supposed "disadvantage" in the popular vote is oversold.  Any plausible Republican nominee *not named Donald Trump would have won the popular vote against Hillary Clinton in 2016, and said Republican would have probably been reelected (with a popular vote mandate) in 2020.

could be true.

nightmare scenario for dems is that their collapse in the rural areas is due to structural reasons (change in dem party platform, general issues, etc), while the gop collapse in suburbs is largely due to trump's conduct. Nightmare scenario for dems is a 2024 gop nominee maintaining trump margins in the rurals, while swinging burbs 5-10% gop.

I am thinking that Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, or Marco Rubio are the types of candidates who could do that in 2024, which would be terrible for the Democrats going forward. They are already locked out of the Senate until 2032, so this would be a worse case scenario for them.

Haley or Rubio would severely depress turnout and while doing better with suburbanites, reverse WWC voter trends in the Midwest.
Moderate doesn't mean more electable.

[vileplume]

Republicans supposed "disadvantage" in the popular vote is oversold.  Any plausible Republican nominee *not named Donald Trump would have won the popular vote against Hillary Clinton in 2016, and said Republican would have probably been reelected (with a popular vote mandate) in 2020.

could be true.

nightmare scenario for dems is that their collapse in the rural areas is due to structural reasons (change in dem party platform, general issues, etc), while the gop collapse in suburbs is largely due to trump's conduct. Nightmare scenario for dems is a 2024 gop nominee maintaining trump margins in the rurals, while swinging burbs 5-10% gop.

I am thinking that Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, or Marco Rubio are the types of candidates who could do that in 2024, which would be terrible for the Democrats going forward. They are already locked out of the Senate until 2032, so this would be a worse case scenario for them.

Haley or Rubio would severely depress turnout and while doing better with suburbanites, reverse WWC voter trends in the Midwest.
Moderate doesn't mean more electable.

It depends who they're up against. If Biden runs again, then this is probably true, but if the Dem nominee is Kamala (who is an absolutely horrible fit for WWC rural areas) then it probably isn't.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Republicans supposed "disadvantage" in the popular vote is oversold.  Any plausible Republican nominee *not named Donald Trump would have won the popular vote against Hillary Clinton in 2016, and said Republican would have probably been reelected (with a popular vote mandate) in 2020.

John Kasich, Jeb Bush, or Marco Rubio would have definitely won the popular vote in 2016 in retrospect given the type of campaign Hillary Clinton ran.

I actually doubt that. IMO Trump had an unusually good matchup against Clinton, he was able to portray himself as an outsider fighting a corrupt elitist. I think Clinton would have narrowly beaten Rubio or Jeb, though they would have won Florida by more. Not sure about Kasich.

Here's how I imagine a Clinton vs Rubio race going:

1) Rubio leads comfortably throughout the summer and has a near-double digit lead coming out of the conventions
2) Clinton starts to chip away at Rubio's support as he makes more gaffes
3) Rubio absolutely faceplants at the first debate
4) The stuff about Wainwright Park and Angel Barrios comes out and starts getting traction online
5) Rubio still wins the EC, albeit underwhelmingly and well short of what the polls showed a few weeks before the election, while losing the PV. He comes into office with no mandate (or a very weak one) and can't get much done during his presidency.

[cwh2018]

I think the gop has somewhere between a 20-40% chance of winning the popular vote.  I have come around to the view that the GOP should have won it or got to a near tie like the  2000 election in 2016.
Obama's approval ratings were very average until the last 5- 6 months and the same party has only won the white house 3 times once since ww2 so the GOP should have been favourites to win it in 2016 and Clinton was strongly disliked by a large part of the electorate. 

Dems are favourites to win the popular vote,but they have usually won it by a pretty narrow margin since 2000 and it is not that hard to see the GOP at least getting the margin under 2% in 2024 if the Biden admin does not really achieve much.

[The Mikado]

A disastrous and scandal-plagued Biden Administration.

It's that simple. Get that, get a GOP PV majority.