2020 Active Military Vote by Place

[NOVA Green]

The 2020 Presidential General Election, as have most recent Presidential Elections, featured themes and concepts which are designed to appeal to the vast pool of voters who are:

1.) Active Service members of the United States Armed Forces.

2.) Family members of those currently actively serving within the US Armed Forces.

3.) Former US Military Veterans and Family Members of those who have served in both eras of "War" and "Peace".

4.) Those whom broadly identify with the current and former members of the US Military, where the emotional image of the US Flag, is so frequently associated with Military service from WW II to the Present day.

More specifically, the concept of this thread is to attempt to create a space, which more closely examines the voting habits of active service military members in the 2020 PRES General Election.

1.) Starting Point #1: 2020 GE PRES Votes in precincts located solely within US Government Military Bases.

2.) Starting Point #2: 2020 GE PRES Votes in "off-base" Military Precincts and communities.

3.) Starting Point #3: 2020 GE PRES Votes within Counties which are predominately "Base Communities", which include not only a significant number of current Military Members, but also a significant number of "Off-Base" jobs from everything from service level workers, repair & maintenance jobs, etc...

Patchwork Nation had some interesting coding on this when looking at the '08 PRES GE in retrospect, and you can easily grab a used copy on Amazon for $3-4 + Shipping.

https://www.patchworknation.org/

4.) Veterans Population by County by State (This one is perhaps the trickiest), so I will let that lie for the moment, and likely part of the reason nobody has yet responded to the 2020 Vets Vote thread I created a few weeks back.

[NOVA Green]

Index of United States Armed Forces Military Precinct Results

[NOVA Green]

Index of Military "Off-Base" Precincts

[NOVA Green]

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[NOVA Green]

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[NOVA Green]

Index of USAF Military Precinct Results (Base Only)

Ohio--- Wright Patterson Air Force Base- Greene County- Precinct #275

2020 PRES:

Biden:   264   (55.1%)        +14.6% Biden       (+0.7% Trump Swing)
Trump:  194   (40.5%)
Misc:      21    (4.4%)
Total:    479                        -20.3% of 2016 Total Votes

2016 PRES:

HRC:     322   (53.6%)        +15.3% Biden
Trump:  230   (38.3%)
Misc:      49    ( 8.2%)
Total:    601

[NOVA Green]

Arizona- Davis–Monthan Air Force Base- Pima County- Precinct #114

2020:

Biden:   368    (48.2%)      +0.7% D       (+11.5% D Swing)
Trump:  363    (47.5%)
Misc:      33     ( 4.3%)
Total:    764                                          (+86.7% Increase in TV)

2016:

HRC:    151     (36.9%)      +10.8% R
Trump: 195     (47.7%)
Misc:     63      (15.4%)
Total:    409

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

I'll be following this thread intently. Wonderful work.

[Rand]

On behalf of my fellow Biden-supporting service members, thank you for this thread.

I just have two words for you: THROBBING PATRIOTISM

[BaldEagle1991]

The Democrats finally won among the military vote for the first time in forever.

It really helps when the Republican President tells them they’re losers and suckers and puts Russian bounties aside, and the countless insults he did to Gold Star families and other war heroes.

[Alben Barkley]

The Democrats finally won among the military vote for the first time in forever.

It really helps when the Republican President tells them they’re losers and suckers and puts Russian bounties aside, and the countless insults he did to Gold Star families and other war heroes.

I think, though don't quote me on this, it may be the first time since Harry Truman or FDR back in the 40s. Though LBJ might have won it against Goldwater, not sure. Other than that, pretty damn sure the military vote has been solidly R for SEVERAL decades until now.

Last concrete data I'm aware of is FDR won the military vote in 1944 with 61% though. It's generally assumed that the military is two things:

1. Conservative (at least culturally)

2. Loyal to their Commander-in-Chief (especially if he's a Republican)

So the fact that Trump lost their vote tells you how little confidence and respect our servicemen and women have for their Commander-in-Chief and how little they were fooled by his cynical conservative posturing.

[NOVA Green]

Arizona- Luke Air Force Base- Maricopa County-Precinct # Alsup

Base / Off-Base Precinct:

Tricky to classify since I can't find a clear-cut separation between a "Base" vs "Off-Base" precinct, plus there is some trickiness when it comes to the "Base" leasing property to "Non-Base" residents, with a large Country Club Golf Course just North off-base.

2020:

Biden:    304    (37.3%)      +22.7% Trump     (+0.5% Biden Swing)
Trump:   489    (60.0%)
Misc:       22     ( 2.7%)
Total:     815                      +43.2% TV Increase 2016 to 2020

2016:

HRC:        191   (33.6%)    +23.2% Trump
Trump:     323   (56.8%)
Misc:         55    ( 9.7%)
Total:       569

[Hnv1]

is there a variance between branches? i.e., does the army vote to the right of the navy?

[NOVA Green]

is there a variance between branches? i.e., does the army vote to the right of the navy?

I will defer to others with more experience on this matter than myself, but in general I believe yes there have been significant variations over the past (40) Years between voting patterns of Military Branches.

Perhaps one of the more recent changes has been, regardless of branch of service, what has traditionally been a heavily Republican "Career Military" / "Officer Corp" have moved increasingly Democratic since '08 GE, while Enlisted Men & Women have bounced back a bit more....

Part of the purpose of this inquiry to examine the voting patterns of Active Duty Service Members, especially within the context of the '16 > '20 Presidential Elections, so my initial focus has been on an initial branch of the United States Armed Forces, starting with the United States Air Force (Simply because they were some of the first precinct base level results which I came across from some of the first States where such data was easily available, while meanwhile I was researching other projects in the vicinity).

[FrancoAgo]

Index of USAF Military Precinct Results (Base Only)

Ohio--- Wright Patterson Air Force Base- Greene County- Precinct #275

2020 PRES:

Biden:   264   (55.1%)        +14.6% Biden       (+1.7% Trump Swing)
Trump:  194   (40.5%)
Misc:      21    (4.4%)
Total:    479                        -20.3% of 2016 Total Votes

2016 PRES:

HRC:     322   (53.6%)        +15.3% Biden
Trump:  230   (38.3%)
Misc:      49    ( 8.2%)
Total:    601

this is a 0.7 swing not a 1.7

[NOVA Green]

Colorado- Buckley Air Force Base- Arapahoe County- Precinct # 6293603551


It appears to be predominately a military base precinct.

2020:

Biden:  413   (68.7%)        +41.4% Biden           (+10.2% DEM Swing)
Trump: 164   (27.3%)
Misc:     24    ( 4.0%)
Total:   601                        + 8.5% increase from 2016

2016:

HRC  :  344   (62.1%)        +31.2% HRC
Trump: 171   (30.9%)
Misc:     39    ( 7.0%) 
Total:   554

[Badger]

The Democrats finally won among the military vote for the first time in forever.

It really helps when the Republican President tells them they’re losers and suckers and puts Russian bounties aside, and the countless insults he did to Gold Star families and other war heroes.

I think, though don't quote me on this, it may be the first time since Harry Truman or FDR back in the 40s. Though LBJ might have won it against Goldwater, not sure. Other than that, pretty damn sure the military vote has been solidly R for SEVERAL decades until now.

Last concrete data I'm aware of is FDR won the military vote in 1944 with 61% though. It's generally assumed that the military is two things:

1. Conservative (at least culturally)

2. Loyal to their Commander-in-Chief (especially if he's a Republican)

So the fact that Trump lost their vote tells you how little confidence and respect our servicemen and women have for their Commander-in-Chief and how little they were fooled by his cynical conservative posturing.

Even more important than number two is the party's Divergent views on military spending in the post-vietnam era. Democrats have a significant Wing that are at least skeptical of military spending increases. Republicans proudly Embrace handing the Pentagon brass a blank checkbook. Military members react to this favorable spending  policies the same way any other interested party would.

[BaldEagle1991]

I’m willing to bet unlike Obama, Biden wont cut any military spending. These military swings are probably why.

[NOVA Green]

Wyoming-F.E. Warren Air Force Base- Laramie County- Base/Rural Splits-Precinct #4-7

Precinct Looks like a mixture of a Base precinct plus some far rural non-base communities to the West End of the precinct.   (Off-Base precinct coding IDK ?)

https://www.warren.af.mil/About-Us/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_E._Warren_Air_Force_Base

2020 PRES:


Trump:  729     (68.6%)        +41.4% Trump      (+5.7% Biden Swing)
Biden:   289     (27.2%)       
Misc:      44      (4.1%)
Total:   1,062                        +8.9% of 2016 Total Votes

2016 PRES:

Trump:  656   (67.3%)          +47.1% Trump
HRC:     197   (20.2%) 
Misc:     122   (12.5%)
Total:    975

[NOVA Green]

Kansas--- McConnell Air Force Base- Sedgwick County- Precincts- RI03 & GY04- Base Precincts

https://www.mcconnell.af.mil/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McConnell_Air_Force_Base

Still difficult to match "Base Precinct Maps" with KS Sedgwick County Precinct Maps, so entirely possible I am missing some Military Base Precincts.

Again, for anyone not aware, there are also many "Military Ghettos" off-base, just like there are "Campus Ghettos" outside of College / University Dorms, but for the moment my focus is more on the "Base Precincts".

PRECINCT RI03:

2020 PRES:

Biden:   163   (40.2%)        +15.6% Trump     (+5.8% Trump Swing)
Trump:  226   (55.8%)
Misc:      16    (4.0%)
Total:    405                       +24.2% of 2016 Total Votes

2016 PRES:

HRC:     130   (39.9%)        +9.8% Trump
Trump:  162   (49.7%)
Misc:      34    (10.4%)
Total:    326

[NOVA Green]

Mississippi--- Columbus Air Force Base- Lowndes County- Precinct- "Air Base" Base/Off-Base Precinct (?)

https://www.columbus.af.mil/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_Air_Force_Base

PRECINCT Airbase:

2020 PRES:

Biden:   484   (46.7%)        +5.2% Trump     (+0.8% Trump Swing)
Trump:  538   (51.9%)
Misc:      15     (1.4%)
Total:    1,037                     +9.3% of 2016 Total Votes

*** Note Epsy Won MS-SEN (D) 50.9% vs PUB 47.7%  in the 2020 MS-GE-SEN Election (1,036 TVs)***


2016 PRES:

HRC:     440   (46.4%)        +4.4% Trump
Trump:  482   (50.8%)
Misc:      27    (2.8%)
Total:    949

[NOVA Green]

So for anyone keeping score thus far we currently have (7/82) United States Airforce "Base Precincts" reporting including JFB's:

Current Tally:

2020:

Biden:   2,285  (44.3%)       (+8.1% Trump)      +2.0% DEM SWING
Trump:  2,703  (52.4%)
Misc:        175  ( 3.4%)
Total:    5,163                      +17.8% Increase in TV 2016 > 2020

2016:

HRC:     1,775  (40.5%)       (+10.1% Trump)
Trump:  2,219  (50.6%)
Misc:        389  ( 3.4%)
Total:    4,383


These are very early preliminary precinct level results from Air Force Base precincts, so I would be *** extremely cautious in extrapolating these numbers even regarding voting patterns of Air Force Base Precinct Voters, let alone "off-base" Military voters & spouses of Air Force Members, let alone voting patterns of current active service members of other branches of the United States Armed Forces, let alone attempting to delve into the "Veterans Vote in 2020".

[NOVA Green]

Georgia--- Moody Air Force Base- Lowndes County- Precincts- Northgate- Base / Non-Base Precinct

PRECINCT Northgate:

2020 PRES:

Biden:   376   (41.0%)        +16.4% Trump    
Trump:  526   (57.4%) 
Misc:      15    (1.6%)
Total:    917                      

2016 PRES:

*** Northgate was not a precinct in 2016 from what I can find, so I can't match election results between '16 and '20---- if anyone has found something that I'm missing, please let us know ***

[GeorgiaModerate]

PRECINCT Northgate:

2020 PRES:

Biden:   526   (57.4%)        +16.4% Trump     
Trump:  376   (41.0%)

Shouldn't that be +16.4 Biden?

Also, if you're taking requests, can you do Eglin AFB (Okaloosa County FL)?

[NOVA Green]

PRECINCT Northgate:

2020 PRES:

Biden:   526   (57.4%)        +16.4% Trump     
Trump:  376   (41.0%)

Shouldn't that be +16.4 Biden?

Also, if you're taking requests, can you do Eglin AFB (Okaloosa County FL)?

Apologies, that was a typo because I was in a hurry to type it up before I had to leave for work today.

It was actually a Trump precinct (Updated OP).

Sure, I can do Englin AFB now that FL results are certified assuming I can ID the precinct(s) associated with the base.