Map of counties with less D/R votes respectively than 2016

[n1240]

Random topic that I was interested in last night - wanted to see counties where Trump received fewer votes than 2016, and where Biden received fewer votes than Clinton in 2016. General expectation was that due to increased turnout that Trump would for the most part would generally receive more votes than 2016 in most counties, despite some suburban areas swinging hard against him, and Biden would typically do worse in some rural areas with declining pop.

Color code is self-explanatory, blue = counties where Trump received fewer votes than 2016, red = counties where Biden received fewer voters than Clinton 2016, purple = both conditions true. Few notes on incomplete data - New York isn't done counting but based on turnout increase/county swings from 2016, I don't think any counties will meet the conditions. There are a few counties in Illinois still have incomplete results, may have a fewer counties where Biden receives fewer votes than Clinton in SE Illinois. Lake County CA also hasn't reported anything post election day but wouldn't expect either condition to be met there. Ohio County IN (appears as purple) possibly has erroneous data with Jorgensen having way too many votes, but since the IN website is showing official results, I used it anyways.



Zoom-in of Virginia to display cities:



Notes/analysis:

- Biden received fewer votes than Clinton in most counties in Arkansas, but still received more votes statewide due to the three largest counties swinging D.
- Miami-Dade is the largest county where Biden received fewer votes than Clinton, St. Louis County (MO) is the largest county where Trump received fewer votes than 2016.
- Number of counties in Alabama Black Belt counties and MS Delta region Biden received fewer votes than Clinton, mostly due to lower turnout.
- Unsurprisingly, the region with the largest swing nationwide against Biden in the Rio Grande has many counties where Biden received fewer votes than Clinton.
- Maryland which had one of the largest D shifts has the largest concentration of counties where Trump received fewer votes than 2016.
- Most counties where the fewer votes condition is met for either party are located within the South, virtually none in the Northeast and none in the Midwestern battlegrounds, and very few in the West.
- Lake County SD possibly certified with upwards of around 2k votes missing from their count. Every precinct except one had more votes than 2016, the only precinct with fewer does have a small University located within the precinct, but I'm not sure if it can explain a difference of 1.5k-2k votes when approximately 3k students are enrolled in the university.

[Calthrina950]

It's interesting to know that there was residual Clinton strength in Arkansas, in contrast to what I had previously believed. It's also astonishing that the number of counties where Biden received fewer votes than Clinton far exceeds the number of counties where Trump received fewer votes then he had in 2016.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's interesting to know that there was residual Clinton strength in Arkansas, in contrast to what I had previously believed. It's also astonishing that the number of counties where Biden received fewer votes than Clinton far exceeds the number of counties where Trump received fewer votes then he had in 2016.

AR definately has potential to get up there with WY and WV as the most R state. I think this teaches us to never assume Republicans are maxed out anywhere.

[Calthrina950]

Also, is there a blank, Paint-friendly version of the county map in the opening thread?

[n1240]

Also, is there a blank, Paint-friendly version of the county map in the opening thread?

I've just been using QGIS for maps, so I wouldn't have a blank, Paint-friendly county map available. Could give a tutorial on it if you're interested for a different endeavor.

[Calthrina950]

Also, is there a blank, Paint-friendly version of the county map in the opening thread?

I've just been using QGIS for maps, so I wouldn't have a blank, Paint-friendly county map available. Could give a tutorial on it if you're interested for a different endeavor.

I'd be interested in such a tutorial, as I've been trying to produce more aesthetically pleasing county maps for my scenarios-something akin to the national county maps on US Election Atlas.

[Calthrina950]

Also, is there a blank, Paint-friendly version of the county map in the opening thread?

I've just been using QGIS for maps, so I wouldn't have a blank, Paint-friendly county map available. Could give a tutorial on it if you're interested for a different endeavor.

I'd be interested in such a tutorial, as I've been trying to produce more aesthetically pleasing county maps for my scenarios-something akin to the national county maps on US Election Atlas.

I'm bumping this up.

[It's Time.]

New England and the PNW are...interesting.