Possibility that Georgia flips before North Carolina?

[CookieDamage]

How likely is it that Georgia flips to the D column while North Carolina votes for Trump?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Unlikely, but still well within bounds of possibility.

[Pericles]

Georgia voted for Trump by 5.10% in 2016, while North Carolina voted for Trump by 3.66%. A 1.44% difference, which isn't that significant. Georgia trended 4.47% to the left, while North Carolina trended just 0.15% to the left. So I'd say it's about even.

[OneJ]

It's not impossible, though I just don't see it happening at the moment. The most recent polls seem to indicate NC being a tilt Biden state while GA looking more like a nailbiter.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Unlikely, and local Republicans taking Georgia races more seriously post-Abrams means this is closer to 'very unlikely' than 'unsure/tossup', in my view. It's trending faster but the local GOP are doing more to boost turnout in sympathetic constituencies, although the national GOP appears to be sleeping on GA.

[JRP1994]

Between very and extremely unlikely. If Biden's getting a high enough black turnout and doing well enough among suburban white voters to flip Georgia, almost impossible to envision a situation where North Carolina hasn't already flipped.

[slothdem]

It's unlikely, but not very unlikely. Strong black turnout and increased performance in the suburbs is necessary to flip both states, but if you have those conditions Georgia will move more since it (1) has a larger black population to turnout and (2) a larger suburban population to persuade. Additionally, turnout is low in Georgia and high in North Carolina, so you have more room to operate. Also, increasing the GOP margins in rural Georgia is like squeezing blood from a stone - the party already gets 95% of the rural white vote, and there are public school teachers everywhere. The NC GOP still has room to grow their rural margins, especially in Eastern NC, which is one of the few spots where the older white vote is bluer than the younger white vote.

[SaneDemocrat]

It's unlikely, but not very unlikely. Strong black turnout and increased performance in the suburbs is necessary to flip both states, but if you have those conditions Georgia will move more since it (1) has a larger black population to turnout and (2) a larger suburban population to persuade. Additionally, turnout is low in Georgia and high in North Carolina, so you have more room to operate. Also, increasing the GOP margins in rural Georgia is like squeezing blood from a stone - the party already gets 95% of the rural white vote, and there are public school teachers everywhere. The NC GOP still has room to grow their rural margins, especially in Eastern NC, which is one of the few spots where the older white vote is bluer than the younger white vote.

And Western North Carolina.What counties are you talking about

[redjohn]

Agree that if GA flips, NC is very likely also flipping. It's possible, though, if both states are very close and GA happens to barely vote more Democratic than NC.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Unlikely, it would require something unique to happen solely in Georgia.

[Frodo]

Interesting reading this thread now..... 

[Hammy]

To be fair, nobody could've expected North Carolina to have near zero trend.

[President Johnson]

I'm still not getting who these Cooper/Trump/Tillis voters are. Com' on, man!

[Pericles]

To be fair, nobody could've expected North Carolina to have near zero trend.

North Carolina literally had near zero trend in 2016.

[Crumpets]

Every time I see one of these threads bumped, it makes me happy that I apparently didn't try to answer any of the questions at the time, since I probably would have been way wrong, but now there's no proof of that.