Dayton and Youngstown

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Why did Montgomery County (Dayton) flip back when Mahoning flipped to Trump?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Because Dayton is both less white and more educated than Youngstown. Youngstown has more WWC non-college voters.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountyohio,mahoningcountyohio/PST045219

[NOVA Green]

Because Dayton is both less white and more educated than Youngstown. Youngstown has more WWC non-college voters.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountyohio,mahoningcountyohio/PST045219

Youngstown voted almost 3:1 Biden, despite swing towards Trump, and actually Dayton voted to the Right of Youngstown.

Also the City of Youngtown is Blacker than the City of Dayton (43.7% vs 39.8%).

The real answer are located outside of the City Limits of both towns (Although I believe you are making a broader point about County Demographics as opposed to Municipalities, so hopefully I am not being to flippant or pedantic in my response....    )

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412697.msg7798269#msg7798269

"9.) Youngstown- 2020

              Biden:       16,580  (73.4%)       +48.0% Biden    (+6.5% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:        5,733  (25.4%)
              Misc:             280  ( 1.2%)   
              Total:        22,593                     -7.2% from 2016 Total Votes

          Youngstown- 2016

              HRC:        18,499   (75.9%)       +54.5% HRC   
              Trump:       5,207   (21.4%)
              Misc:             656   (2.7%)
              Total:       24,362"

[Horus]

Youngstown suburbs are wwc and full of Italians and Eastern Europeans.

Dayton suburbs are more upper class and mostly WASP. Also Wright Patterson AFB.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Black and Browns, in OH they are Arabs instead of Latinos, they are culturally Conservative on Gun rights and as Obama said it SSM, that's why Trump did what he had to do in OH

[NOVA Green]

Black and Browns, in OH they are Arabs instead of Latinos, they are culturally Conservative on Gun rights and as Obama said it SSM, that's why Trump did what he had to do in OH

What does this mean?

Having a hard time following the relevancy here without further explanation, since although I had a few Black Muslim friends when I was going to College in the Dayton area in the '90s, and sure NOI had historical roots in places like Cleveland way back in the dayz, I am finding it a bit hard pressed to understand what exactly it is that you are trying to say when it comes to Metro Youngstown and Metro Dayton in 2020.

Confused in Oregon

[NOVA Green]

So both Impartial Spectator and JoeSiris make some interesting points regarding the compare / contrast of Montgomery County (Metro Dayton), OH as well as Mahoning County (Metro Youngstown), OH.

So in Honor of the giant precinct level vote dump from OH today in a spreadsheet format, I thought it might be interesting to at least explore Montgomery County, in slightly further detail.

Full disclose I used to live about 20 Minutes drive down the road from Dayton when I was going to College in the 1990s and actually interned in the City for a Non-Profit where I got a full tour of the City from my Gay Male Supervisor, who knew his home City like the back of his hand.

1.) Dayton, Ohio---

I had previously consolidated the numbers from the City between 2016 and 2020 earlier today (Without breaking results down by precinct).

6.) Dayton- 2020--- 19.6% of County Vote Share

              Biden:       36,712    (69.8%)        +41.3% Biden        (+0.7% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      14,984    (28.5%)
              Misc:             933    ( 1.8%)   
              Total:        52,629                        -3.4% from 2016 Total Votes

          Dayton- 2016-  21.2% of County Vote Share

              HRC:        37,492    (68.8%)       +42.0% HRC
              Trump:     14,626    (26.8%)
              Misc:        5,589     (10.3%)
              Total:       54,500

2.) Kettering- 2020--- 12.1% of County Vote Share

              Biden:       15,567    (48.1%)        +2.1% Trump     (+10.1% DEMSwing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      16,263    (50.2%)
              Misc:             563     ( 1.7%)   
              Total:        32,393                       -3.4% from 2016 Total Votes

          Kettering- 2016-  11.7% of County Vote Share

              HRC:        12,377    (41.1%)       +12.2% Trump
              Trump:     16,080    (53.3%)
              Misc:          1,692    (5.6%)
              Total:       30,149

Kettering has increased their educational attainment levels considerably since I lived in OH, and although it still overwhelmingly White (~90%), and MHI now runs $51.4k / Yr is considerably below that of many other Cities and places within Montgomery County.

3.) Huber Heights- 2020--- 6.9% of County Vote Share

              Biden:        8,394    (45.1%)        +8.2% Trump     (+5.1% DEMSwing '16 > '20)
              Trump:       9,925    (53.3%)
              Misc:             312    ( 1.7%)   
              Total:        18,631                       -3.4% from 2016 Total Votes

          Huber Heights- 2016-  6.8% of County Vote Share

              HRC:         7,208   (41.1%)       +13.3% Trump
              Trump:      9,532   (54.4%)
              Misc:           789    ( 4.5%)
              Total:       17,529

Huber Heights is about 75% White (14% Black), with only about 35% a 2+ Year Degree, but with an MHI of $54.4k / Yr.

4.) Riverside- 2020--- 3.7% of County Vote Share

              Biden:        3,665    (37.4%)        +23.1% Trump     (+1.1% DEMSwing '16 > '20)
              Trump:       5,933    (60.5%)
              Misc:             208    ( 2.1%)   
              Total:         9,806                       -3.4% from 2016 Total Votes

          Riverside- 2016-  3.6% of County Vote Share

              HRC:         3,272  (35.3%)       +24.2% Trump
              Trump:      5,522  (59.5%)
              Misc:           789    ( 8.5%)
              Total:        9,275

Riverside is about 83% White (8% Black), with only about 29% a 2+ Year Degree, but with an MHI of $43.9k / Yr.

5.)Trotwood- 2020---4.1% of County Vote Share

              Biden:        9,137   (82.3%)        +65.5% Biden     (+3.1% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:       1,860   (16.8%)
              Misc:             104    ( 0.9%)   
              Total:        11,101                      -3.4% from 2016 Total Votes

          Trotwood- 2016-  4.6% of County Vote Share

              HRC:         9,842  (83.3%)        +68.6% HRC
              Trump:      1,735  (14.7%)
              Misc:            234    ( 8.5%)
              Total:        11,811

Trotwood is 70% Black and 24% White, 23% with a 2+ Yr Degree with an MHI of $34.5k/ Yr.

6.)Centerville- 2020---5.9% of County Vote Share

              Biden:        7,211   (45.3%)        +7.9% Trump     (+9.7% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:       8,460   (53.2%)
              Misc:             240    ( 1.5%)   
              Total:        15,911                     +8.5% from 2016 Total Votes

          Centerville- 2016-  5.7% of County Vote Share

              HRC:         5,677    (38.7%)       +17.6% Trump
              Trump:      8,259    (56.3%)
              Misc:           734     ( 5.0%)
              Total:        14,670

Centerville is 86% White and 6% Black, 59% with a 2+ Yr Degree with an MHI of $63.5k/ Yr.

We can naturally dip into some of the Oldest and Whitest Townships in Montgomery County:

A.) Miami Township:- 2020---5.9% of County Vote Share

              Biden:        6,647   (41.9%)        +14.5% Trump     (+7.4% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:       8,947   (56.4%)
              Misc:             262   ( 1.7%)   
              Total:        15,856                     +8.5% from 2016 Total Votes

          Miami Township- 2016-  5.7% of County Vote Share

              HRC:         5,244    (36.5%)       +21.9% Trump
              Trump:      8,392    (58.4%)
              Misc:           735     ( 5.1%)
              Total:       14,371

I could continue the story and dissection of Montgomery County OH results, but an initial survey it appears that DEMs underperformed in the most heavily Black precincts, while meanwhile picking up votes in Senior Precincts as well as bigger swings in Upper-Income White Educated precincts...