Electoral Map of Whites Under 30

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Although, it's possible there's more brain drain happening from Michigan in general. Living in CO I've met way more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans. There's probably more disposable income and liberal tendencies that inspires younger people to leave here than Iowans.

There are a lot more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans overall. I still don't buy that young whites in MI (and NE) voted Biden but those in IA didn't. Not to mention TX/UT/NC, especially as FL/NV go the other way.

CNN has Trump winning the young white vote in Florida by 10 points . I think the CNN white vote by age group makes more sense . I highly doubt Biden won young white voters in any southern states with the exception of Virginia .

Southern white voters are very different from non southern white votes and with the exception of FL and VA which are no where as racially polarized as the rest of the south, every southern state probably would vote to the right of Missouri if it’s racial demographics were like the Midwest .

I get that, but under 30's aren't racially polarized like their parents are, and states like Texas (and North Carolina, somewhat) don't quite have the same dynamics as MS/AR/TN/KY/LA/AL/MS. Like I get young whites in Georgia voting Republican since most of the white population isn't in Atlanta, but in Texas at least, I'd expect similar dynamics with young whites as AZ/CO. Perhaps I overate the percentage of the population in South Lamar, Montrose, and Oak Lawn.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Although, it's possible there's more brain drain happening from Michigan in general. Living in CO I've met way more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans. There's probably more disposable income and liberal tendencies that inspires younger people to leave here than Iowans.

There are a lot more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans overall. I still don't buy that young whites in MI (and NE) voted Biden but those in IA didn't. Not to mention TX/UT/NC, especially as FL/NV go the other way.

CNN has Trump winning the young white vote in Florida by 10 points . I think the CNN white vote by age group makes more sense . I highly doubt Biden won young white voters in any southern states with the exception of Virginia .


Remember this was the overall white vote map in 2016





Southern white voters are very different from non southern white votes and with the exception of FL and VA which are no where as racially polarized as the rest of the south, every southern state probably would vote to the right of Missouri if it’s racial demographics were like the Midwest .

Alternately, every Southern state, with the possible exception of TN and AR would relatively safely blue if their whites voted like Midwesterners.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Although, it's possible there's more brain drain happening from Michigan in general. Living in CO I've met way more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans. There's probably more disposable income and liberal tendencies that inspires younger people to leave here than Iowans.

There are a lot more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans overall. I still don't buy that young whites in MI (and NE) voted Biden but those in IA didn't. Not to mention TX/UT/NC, especially as FL/NV go the other way.

CNN has Trump winning the young white vote in Florida by 10 points . I think the CNN white vote by age group makes more sense . I highly doubt Biden won young white voters in any southern states with the exception of Virginia .

Southern white voters are very different from non southern white votes and with the exception of FL and VA which are no where as racially polarized as the rest of the south, every southern state probably would vote to the right of Missouri if it’s racial demographics were like the Midwest .

I get that, but under 30's aren't racially polarized like their parents are, and states like Texas (and North Carolina, somewhat) don't quite have the same dynamics as MS/AR/TN/KY/LA/AL/MS. Like I get young whites in Georgia voting Republican since most of the white population isn't in Atlanta, but in Texas at least, I'd expect similar dynamics with young whites as AZ/CO. Perhaps I overate the percentage of the population in South Lamar, Montrose, and Oak Lawn.

While they aren’t as racially polarized as their parents are they are still much more racially polarized then the rest of the country . Arizona for example always had its white vote vote significantly to the right of any southern state. Look at this map from 2016 where whites in AZ voted more like OH whites than non VA/FL Southern states

[Progressive Pessimist]

So there is hope for Florida after all. We just somehow need to bar any more retirees from moving down there.

[mileslunn]

I also heard amongst white millennials, gender gap is larger than other age groups.  If you took just white male millennials, I am guessing Trump narrowly won them whereas amongst white female millennials I am guessing Biden lead over 20 points and outside deep south and maybe a few mountain west and plains states, Biden won the white female under 30 in much of the US.

[Hope For A New Era]

I have a lot of doubts here. I really just don't see how Nebraska young whites are to the left of those in Kansas, Iowa, and Utah.

[Annatar]

The numbers for Nebraska are wrong, firstly there are not enough 18-29 whites in NE for it to be listed separately in the exit poll, secondly here is how whites aged 18-29 voted vs whites aged 30-44 in surrounding states,

Kansas:

Whites 18-29: R+12
Whites 30-44: R+16

Iowa:
Whites 18-29: R+3
Whites 30-44: R+5


In Kansas there is a 4% drop in margin as you move from whites aged 30-44 to 18-29, the drop is 2% in Iowa, in Nebraska Whites aged 30-44 were R+15, I would guess whites aged 18-29 were R+11 or so in NE.

[lfromnj]

Although, it's possible there's more brain drain happening from Michigan in general. Living in CO I've met way more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans. There's probably more disposable income and liberal tendencies that inspires younger people to leave here than Iowans.

There are a lot more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans overall. I still don't buy that young whites in MI (and NE) voted Biden but those in IA didn't. Not to mention TX/UT/NC, especially as FL/NV go the other way.

For what its worth the 2nd largest university in Iowa had a Trump precinct on campus in 2016.And the largest university is also flooded by out of states so the 2nd one might be more representative

[Idaho Conservative]

I don't buy it....

Way too similar to the 278 blue wall map. Utah esp. isn't believable.

why not?  Mormons have a high birthrate

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I doubt Iowa. the dem voter base is overwhelmingly white.

[forsythvoter]

I would be shocked if younger whites in GA were as R as the OP's map indicates. Given Biden won 30% of the GA white vote overall, I would think he won something like 40% of whites under 35. We're much more elastic than our parents and especially grandparents and I would think drove a big part of the shift towards Biden overall. Younger whites are also disproportionately more likely to live in the state's urban areas and in college towns like Athens, where it's pretty clear the white vote is actually majority D. Even here in Forsyth, there's a huge age divide among white voters - most of my white neighbors younger than 40 were pretty split between Biden / Trump while the older white neighbors seemed to be overwhelmingly Trump.

[Annatar]

I would be shocked if younger whites in GA were as R as the OP's map indicates. Given Biden won 30% of the GA white vote overall, I would think he won something like 40% of whites under 35. We're much more elastic than our parents and especially grandparents and I would think drove a big part of the shift towards Biden overall. Younger whites are also disproportionately more likely to live in the state's urban areas and in college towns like Athens, where it's pretty clear the white vote is actually majority D. Even here in Forsyth, there's a huge age divide among white voters - most of my white neighbors younger than 40 were pretty split between Biden / Trump while the older white neighbors seemed to be overwhelmingly Trump.

This is what the Fox exit poll has for Whites in Georgia in terms of R vs D.

18-29: 62-34
30-44: 63-35
45-64: 74-25
65+: 71-28

So the Fox exit poll has Trump winning 18-29 whites by 28%, 62-34, the Edison exit poll has him up 60-38, by 22%.

[Frenchrepublican]

Although, it's possible there's more brain drain happening from Michigan in general. Living in CO I've met way more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans. There's probably more disposable income and liberal tendencies that inspires younger people to leave here than Iowans.

There are a lot more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans overall. I still don't buy that young whites in MI (and NE) voted Biden but those in IA didn't. Not to mention TX/UT/NC, especially as FL/NV go the other way.

CNN has Trump winning the young white vote in Florida by 10 points . I think the CNN white vote by age group makes more sense . I highly doubt Biden won young white voters in any southern states with the exception of Virginia .


Remember this was the overall white vote map in 2016





Southern white voters are very different from non southern white votes and with the exception of FL and VA which are no where as racially polarized as the rest of the south, every southern state probably would vote to the right of Missouri if it’s racial demographics were like the Midwest .

Some of these numbers are not believable, the small white non-hispanic electorate of Miami Dade almost certainly voted for Clinton in 2016, most of anglos people in this county are either gays, jews or socially liberal, college educated professionals.

[forsythvoter]

I would be shocked if younger whites in GA were as R as the OP's map indicates. Given Biden won 30% of the GA white vote overall, I would think he won something like 40% of whites under 35. We're much more elastic than our parents and especially grandparents and I would think drove a big part of the shift towards Biden overall. Younger whites are also disproportionately more likely to live in the state's urban areas and in college towns like Athens, where it's pretty clear the white vote is actually majority D. Even here in Forsyth, there's a huge age divide among white voters - most of my white neighbors younger than 40 were pretty split between Biden / Trump while the older white neighbors seemed to be overwhelmingly Trump.

This is what the Fox exit poll has for Whites in Georgia in terms of R vs D.

18-29: 62-34
30-44: 63-35
45-64: 74-25
65+: 71-28

So the Fox exit poll has Trump winning 18-29 whites by 28%, 62-34, the Edison exit poll has him up 60-38, by 22%.

I could believe the Edison numbers and I'm sure Trump still did quite well among rural younger whites. When I have some time, I'll do a precinct-level analysis and post what I find.

[mileslunn]

I would be shocked if younger whites in GA were as R as the OP's map indicates. Given Biden won 30% of the GA white vote overall, I would think he won something like 40% of whites under 35. We're much more elastic than our parents and especially grandparents and I would think drove a big part of the shift towards Biden overall. Younger whites are also disproportionately more likely to live in the state's urban areas and in college towns like Athens, where it's pretty clear the white vote is actually majority D. Even here in Forsyth, there's a huge age divide among white voters - most of my white neighbors younger than 40 were pretty split between Biden / Trump while the older white neighbors seemed to be overwhelmingly Trump.

This is what the Fox exit poll has for Whites in Georgia in terms of R vs D.

18-29: 62-34
30-44: 63-35
45-64: 74-25
65+: 71-28

So the Fox exit poll has Trump winning 18-29 whites by 28%, 62-34, the Edison exit poll has him up 60-38, by 22%.

I could believe the Edison numbers and I'm sure Trump still did quite well among rural younger whites. When I have some time, I'll do a precinct-level analysis and post what I find.

I suspect amongst 18-29, church attendance, education, and martial status played a big role.  In rural areas, its still quite common to get married before 25, attend church weekly and only have a high school diploma.  By contrast in urban and suburban areas, many don't get married until their 30s, have a college degree, and rarely attend church thus much more liberal.  In general people tend to become more conservative when they get married and have children and in rural areas that is much younger than in urban areas.  At same time, millennial whites are more likely to leave in urban areas than older whites are.  Many who grew up in rural areas move to cities for jobs.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I suspect amongst 18-29, church attendance, education, and martial status played a big role.  In rural areas, its still quite common to get married before 25, attend church weekly and only have a high school diploma.  By contrast in urban and suburban areas, many don't get married until their 30s, have a college degree, and rarely attend church thus much more liberal.  In general people tend to become more conservative when they get married and have children and in rural areas that is much younger than in urban areas.  At same time, millennial whites are more likely to leave in urban areas than older whites are.  Many who grew up in rural areas move to cities for jobs.

Actually, suburban areas have generally higher church attendance rates than rural areas. The rest sounds broadly correct - if a bit stereotyped.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The map has to be taken into consideration with racial diversity in the back of your mind and the size of the pool of white voters in question.

What these numbers do indicate is that as I said before the election KS is in far less peril for the GOP then say GA, SC or MS (though breakthroughs with rural African-Americans is kind of thing that could mitigate that there) long term.  KS is overwhelmingly white so slipping from 18% to 12% margin or whatever the exact number is in a particular exit poll is not catastrophic whereas GA whites shrinking to 62% Republican and shrinking in size at the same time would probably turn GA into CA.

This is not to say that Republicans don't have problems in Kansas or anywhere else, they do but those are more easily fixable then the situation GA is in.

[mileslunn]

I suspect amongst 18-29, church attendance, education, and martial status played a big role.  In rural areas, its still quite common to get married before 25, attend church weekly and only have a high school diploma.  By contrast in urban and suburban areas, many don't get married until their 30s, have a college degree, and rarely attend church thus much more liberal.  In general people tend to become more conservative when they get married and have children and in rural areas that is much younger than in urban areas.  At same time, millennial whites are more likely to leave in urban areas than older whites are.  Many who grew up in rural areas move to cities for jobs.

Actually, suburban areas have generally higher church attendance rates than rural areas. The rest sounds broadly correct - if a bit stereotyped.

I would say biggest things in life that move people to right are when you get married and buy your first home.  In urban and suburban areas, that usually happens after 30, whereas in rural areas usually before.  While not in US polls, but polled in UK, I would think there is a home owner vs. renter divide although maybe not quite as large as UK.