Electoral Map of Whites Under 30

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The following is based on FOX News's voter analysis

Biden: 324 EV, 51% PV
Trump: 211 EV, 45% PV

Now, ABC's exit polls have young whites nationally at Trump +9, instead of FOX's Biden +6 (despite having nearly identical overall margins with young voters), so a bunch of states would flip if you did a uniform 15 point swing to Trump on that map.

[Bootes Void]

Nebraska looks really odd in that

[Crumpets]

Nebraska white bois walking into the Democratic white bois party like:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't buy it. There's no way zoomer/young millennial whites are anywhere below Biden+20.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't buy it. There's no way zoomer/young millennial whites are anywhere below Biden+20.

Not really even if you take the most democratic exit poll for voters under 30 , they still voted for Biden 65-31 overall and given how diverse voters under 30 are there is no way Whites under 30 are Biden + 20.

[DabbingSanta]

Kind of funny because I know two under 30 whites from Nebraska and they both voted Biden lol

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't buy it. There's no way zoomer/young millennial whites are anywhere below Biden+20.

Not really even if you take the most democratic exit poll for voters under 30 , they still voted for Biden 65-31 overall and given how diverse voters under 30 are there is no way Whites under 30 are Biden + 20.

I mean, maybe. It's just hard for me to believe that a majority of white 28 year-olds in Texas actually voted Trump.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I don't buy it. There's no way zoomer/young millennial whites are anywhere below Biden+20.

Not really even if you take the most democratic exit poll for voters under 30 , they still voted for Biden 65-31 overall and given how diverse voters under 30 are there is no way Whites under 30 are Biden + 20.

I mean, maybe. It's just hard for me to believe that a majority of white 28 year-olds in Texas actually voted Trump.

Utah is also especially hard to believe. Utah has a huge age/party split.

[izixs]

They should be ashamed. Self hatred is sick.

I know right? That there'd be anyone under 30 who would think it was a good idea to support the Republican party and their active disinterest in there being a functional or livable future for them.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Another thing that doesn't make sense: IA whites vote left of MI whites so I don't get why the numbers would be flipped for the under-30 crowd.

[Frodo]

Interesting that whites in Mississippi (apart from Wyoming, of course) under 30 are the most Republican in this map.  So much for that theory about Mississippi becoming a swing state as younger generations take over...  

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't buy it. There's no way zoomer/young millennial whites are anywhere below Biden+20.

Not really even if you take the most democratic exit poll for voters under 30 , they still voted for Biden 65-31 overall and given how diverse voters under 30 are there is no way Whites under 30 are Biden + 20.

I mean, maybe. It's just hard for me to believe that a majority of white 28 year-olds in Texas actually voted Trump.

It’s not hard to believe at all , the south is really racially polarized. Remember Trump won Dallas County Whites in 2016 .


Also not only did Trump win the under 30 white vote in Texas he won 60% of the under 30 white vote :

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/texas/5

[H. Ross Peron]

Another thing that doesn't make sense: IA whites vote left of MI whites so I don't get why the numbers would be flipped for the under-30 crowd.

Maybe Michigan whites under 30 tend to be more disproportionately college-educated, given the presence of Lansing, Grand Rapids, and Ann Arbor? Iowa whites may have a pretty consistent partisan level at all age levels by contrast.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Another thing that doesn't make sense: IA whites vote left of MI whites so I don't get why the numbers would be flipped for the under-30 crowd.

Maybe Michigan whites under 30 tend to be more disproportionately college-educated, given the presence of Lansing, Grand Rapids, and Ann Arbor? Iowa whites may have a pretty consistent partisan level at all age levels by contrast.

Also the reason Iowa was a lean Dem state from 1988-2012 was cause of the farm crises , Iowa before 1988 actually had a more strongly republican history than even Kansas so I don’t think it’s that surprising a generation who doesn’t remember the farm crises reverts back to pre farm crises voting patterns

[ultraviolet]

They should be ashamed. Self hatred is sick.

Weird cause you’re one of the most hateful people on here

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I don't buy it....

Way too similar to the 278 blue wall map. Utah esp. isn't believable.

[DaleCooper]

Nebraska doesn't surprise me too much, honestly. The population centers of Lincoln and Omaha are growing rapidly, and culturally they are much more aligned with cities like Fort Collins and Denver, respectively, than anywhere in Nebraska. Meanwhile, the Republican parts of the state are practically hemorrhaging population and, along with it, influence.

[Alcibiades]

Another thing that doesn't make sense: IA whites vote left of MI whites so I don't get why the numbers would be flipped for the under-30 crowd.

Maybe Michigan whites under 30 tend to be more disproportionately college-educated, given the presence of Lansing, Grand Rapids, and Ann Arbor? Iowa whites may have a pretty consistent partisan level at all age levels by contrast.

Also the reason Iowa was a lean Dem state from 1988-2012 was cause of the farm crises , Iowa before 1988 actually had a more strongly republican history than even Kansas so I don’t think it’s that surprising a generation who doesn’t remember the farm crises reverts back to pre farm crises voting patterns

A good point that Iowa is by no means ancestrally Democratic. Certainly the farm crisis is a big reason why it started voting Democratic in 1988 (and why Mondale also did very well relatively in 1984 there), but the reason why it stuck with the Dems for the subsequent two and a half decades is more due to its northern non-Evangelical culture being a poor fit for the Southern Evangelical GOP, but Trump has managed to bring these voters to the GOP in astounding numbers.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

For the points about Nebraska, the actual white 18-29 sample size wasn't large enough to give a standalone number in some small states, including Nebraska, so I had to extrapolate it based on the White 18-44 vote (Trump +6) in combination with the 30-44 vote (Trymp +15).  But it wasn't a large enough sample for them to provide the numbers.

Utah was 49-46 Trump.  Either Wyoming or Mississippi was the most pro-Trump.  Wyoming didn't have large enough sample sizes for anything but 45+ of all races, which was Trump +37.  The state as a whole was Trump +43, meaning that young voters may have been a touch to the right of the state there.  In Mississippi, whites 18-44 were 74-23 Trump, with the 30-44 at 73-24 Trump.  Based on total numbers of voters, I extrapolate the 18-29 white vote at a whopping 75-22 or 76-21 Trump.

[Crumpets]

They should be ashamed. Self hatred is sick.

As someone with a degree in international studies, the GOP has made it perfectly clear they do not see my skills fitting into their vision of the future of the country. I am voting in my own interests just as much as West Virginia coal miners are.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Another thing that doesn't make sense: IA whites vote left of MI whites so I don't get why the numbers would be flipped for the under-30 crowd.

Maybe Michigan whites under 30 tend to be more disproportionately college-educated, given the presence of Lansing, Grand Rapids, and Ann Arbor? Iowa whites may have a pretty consistent partisan level at all age levels by contrast.

Maybe. In the case of AA, though, I'd bet that a huge portion of Michigan graduates (many of whom aren't even from Michigan) leave the state for Chicago, NY or elsewhere. Michigan is a very cosmopolitan school. MSU and the directionals though I think tend to have more students who leave the state.

Although, it's possible there's more brain drain happening from Michigan in general. Living in CO I've met way more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans. There's probably more disposable income and liberal tendencies that inspires younger people to leave here than Iowans.

Another thing that doesn't make sense: IA whites vote left of MI whites so I don't get why the numbers would be flipped for the under-30 crowd.

Maybe Michigan whites under 30 tend to be more disproportionately college-educated, given the presence of Lansing, Grand Rapids, and Ann Arbor? Iowa whites may have a pretty consistent partisan level at all age levels by contrast.

Also the reason Iowa was a lean Dem state from 1988-2012 was cause of the farm crises , Iowa before 1988 actually had a more strongly republican history than even Kansas so I don’t think it’s that surprising a generation who doesn’t remember the farm crises reverts back to pre farm crises voting patterns

A good point that Iowa is by no means ancestrally Democratic. Certainly the farm crisis is a big reason why it started voting Democratic in 1988 (and why Mondale also did very well relatively in 1984 there), but the reason why it stuck with the Dems for the subsequent two and a half decades is more due to its northern non-Evangelical culture being a poor fit for the Southern Evangelical GOP, but Trump has managed to bring these voters to the GOP in astounding numbers.

Eh... Iowa is known for pulling more for evangelical candidates in their primaries and also voted for Bush once. Not to mention that Ernst pulverized Bruce Braley in 2014 with basically the Trump coalition before anybody associated Trump with the GOP in any meaningful way.

[Alcibiades]

Another thing that doesn't make sense: IA whites vote left of MI whites so I don't get why the numbers would be flipped for the under-30 crowd.

Maybe Michigan whites under 30 tend to be more disproportionately college-educated, given the presence of Lansing, Grand Rapids, and Ann Arbor? Iowa whites may have a pretty consistent partisan level at all age levels by contrast.

Also the reason Iowa was a lean Dem state from 1988-2012 was cause of the farm crises , Iowa before 1988 actually had a more strongly republican history than even Kansas so I don’t think it’s that surprising a generation who doesn’t remember the farm crises reverts back to pre farm crises voting patterns

A good point that Iowa is by no means ancestrally Democratic. Certainly the farm crisis is a big reason why it started voting Democratic in 1988 (and why Mondale also did very well relatively in 1984 there), but the reason why it stuck with the Dems for the subsequent two and a half decades is more due to its northern non-Evangelical culture being a poor fit for the Southern Evangelical GOP, but Trump has managed to bring these voters to the GOP in astounding numbers.

Eh... Iowa is known for pulling more for evangelical candidates in their primaries and also voted for Bush once. Not to mention that Ernst pulverized Bruce Braley in 2014 with basically the Trump coalition before anybody associated Trump with the GOP in any meaningful way.

The state GOP apparatus was taken over by RR elements in the 90s (more because it had a first in the nation caucus than because it was particularly fertile ground for the RR), but this was clearly not a winning formula in general elections. I view Iowa’s leftwards shift in the 80s and 90s as being broadly part of the same phenomenon as that of Upper New England and the Driftless. 2014 was of course a GOP wave year, when they did well throughout the Midwest.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Although, it's possible there's more brain drain happening from Michigan in general. Living in CO I've met way more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans. There's probably more disposable income and liberal tendencies that inspires younger people to leave here than Iowans.

There are a lot more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans overall. I still don't buy that young whites in MI (and NE) voted Biden but those in IA didn't. Not to mention TX/UT/NC, especially as FL/NV go the other way.

[It’s so Joever]

BLUEBRASKA!!!!!
(Although this map is ridiculous)

[OSR stands with Israel]

Although, it's possible there's more brain drain happening from Michigan in general. Living in CO I've met way more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans. There's probably more disposable income and liberal tendencies that inspires younger people to leave here than Iowans.

There are a lot more Michiganders (and Minnesotans and Wisconsinites) than Iowans overall. I still don't buy that young whites in MI (and NE) voted Biden but those in IA didn't. Not to mention TX/UT/NC, especially as FL/NV go the other way.

CNN has Trump winning the young white vote in Florida by 10 points . I think the CNN white vote by age group makes more sense . I highly doubt Biden won young white voters in any southern states with the exception of Virginia .


Remember this was the overall white vote map in 2016





Southern white voters are very different from non southern white votes and with the exception of FL and VA which are no where as racially polarized as the rest of the south, every southern state probably would vote to the right of Missouri if it’s racial demographics were like the Midwest .