Cook Political Swingometer vs Results

[Annatar]

One thing that is interesting is comparing the projected vote margin using 2016 turnout and vote shares with 4 years of demographic change that the Cook swingometer projects to the actual results, we can compare all the swing states to see where one side may have gotten better turnout compared to 2016 or shifted the voting patterns of different groups to get a different result than the swingometer, somewhat ironically, Biden's final tally of 306 electoral votes and +4.4 in the popular vote will be similar to the projected 308 electoral votes and +3.9, of course with different states though.

Here is Trump's actual margin - the swingometer, the result indicating whether Trump did better than he could have been expected to based off 4 years of demographic change or worse.

Northern Battleground Tier:
OH: 1%
WI: 0.1%
PA: 0.1%
IA: 0.1%
MI: -2.1%
MN: -3.5%
NH: -5.8%


Southern Battlegrounds:
FL: 4.3%
TX: -0.7%
NC: -0.7%
VA: -2.6%
GA: -2.7%

Western Battlegrounds:
NV: 2.3%
NM: -0.9%
AZ: -2.1%
CO: -6.8%

[Samof94]

Florida is one of the few swing states that haddock pro GOP trends.