How well did Biden do with 2016 Gary Johnson voters?

[holtridge]

I honestly do not know.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Chuck Todd kept saying that 2020 was basically 2016, except that Biden got the Gary Johnson vote.

I don't think it's that simple.

[Annatar]

The AP exit poll asks whether you voted in 2016 or not, 85% said they voted in 2016, it should be noted voters often can't recall accurately whether they voted last time or not but of those who said they voted in 2016, Biden won 50-48, by 2%, Clinton won by 2%, that would seem to indicate the 3rd party vote from 2016 split evenly and there were as many Trump Biden voters as there were Clinton Trump voters.

Biden of course won because among the 15% of voters who did not vote in 2016, he won 56-42, higher turnout saved him, if turnout had been lower, say 140 million Biden would have lost and democrats would have lost control of the house.

[Hnv1]

Chuck Todd kept saying that 2020 was basically 2016, except that Biden got the Gary Johnson vote.

I don't think it's that simple.

The sheer increase in turnout makes it a bit too simple of a statement. from what I see Johnson voters in blue states went with Biden and were split in red states. it's possible they all went to Trump and were swallowed up by increased turnout. Without reliable polling of those voters, there's no way to really know