Election facts that would suggest Trump won re-election?

[Tekken_Guy]

What crazy facts about this election would, on their own, suggest Trump won re-election?

[Mr. Smith]

Florida...just Florida.  You'd think he won the popular vote too with that one.

[2952-0-0]

Trump received enough popular votes to win a landslide.

[Roll Roons]

He won Zapata and Mahoning, only lost Miami-Dade by 7, and Republicans flipped three House seats in California.

[Annatar]

Trump flipped Lorain & Mahoning counties, improved his margin in 69/99 counties in Iowa and did better on average in the driftless region of south-western WI then 2016.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Not a single county in Iowa flipped
Trump won WI-03
Philadelphia swings 3.5 points to Trump
The Latino vote in Arizona shifts R
Pinellas only barely flips back, Broward swing 5 points towards Trump
Ohio and Iowa barely move

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump in general gaining ground with most demographics.

[Matty]

I still don’t get how Trump somehow managed to improve his standing in a whole bunch of rural counties he won by ussr margins in last time!

You mean to tell me there were cletuses and billy bob mcgees out there that voted for hrc then switched to trump?

Or is it that these rural countries are literally losing dem voters due to young folk leaving, old dems dying?

[Dr. Arch]

I still don’t get how Trump somehow managed to improve his standing in a whole bunch of rural counties he won by ussr margins in last time!

You mean to tell me there were cletuses and billy bob mcgees out there that voted for hrc then switched to trump?

Or is it that these rural countries are literally losing dem voters due to young folk leaving, old dems dying?

Likely the latter in combination with increased turnout of the former.

[Annatar]

I still don’t get how Trump somehow managed to improve his standing in a whole bunch of rural counties he won by ussr margins in last time!

You mean to tell me there were cletuses and billy bob mcgees out there that voted for hrc then switched to trump?

Or is it that these rural countries are literally losing dem voters due to young folk leaving, old dems dying?

There are a lot of rural counties where Republicans are still only getting 75% of the white vote or so, they can go up to 90% so one would expect movement to continue until the white vote reaches 90% in these counties.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He didn't Biden won by 306 EC votes and 80M, but some voting irregularities that had some states double count, but not big enough to overturn the election due to Biden massive leads outside the margin of error of 10K votes that can sway an election, Biden won by 80K in PA

That's why Crts have dismissed every Trump lawsuit

[Calthrina950]

I still don’t get how Trump somehow managed to improve his standing in a whole bunch of rural counties he won by ussr margins in last time!

You mean to tell me there were cletuses and billy bob mcgees out there that voted for hrc then switched to trump?

Or is it that these rural countries are literally losing dem voters due to young folk leaving, old dems dying?

There are a lot of rural counties where Republicans are still only getting 75% of the white vote or so, they can go up to 90% so one would expect movement to continue until the white vote reaches 90% in these counties.

I'll dread the day when rural America votes for Republicans by North Korea-like margins, if only for the implications that it will have for our country's political stability.

[Annatar]

I still don’t get how Trump somehow managed to improve his standing in a whole bunch of rural counties he won by ussr margins in last time!

You mean to tell me there were cletuses and billy bob mcgees out there that voted for hrc then switched to trump?

Or is it that these rural countries are literally losing dem voters due to young folk leaving, old dems dying?

There are a lot of rural counties where Republicans are still only getting 75% of the white vote or so, they can go up to 90% so one would expect movement to continue until the white vote reaches 90% in these counties.

I'll dread the day when rural America votes for Republicans by North Korea-like margins, if only for the implications that it will have for our country's political stability.

Many areas in big cities are already voting 90% dem.

[Astatine]

- Iowa and Ohio trending R in relation to the nation as a whole
- Trump's performance in Miami-Dade (Biden +7)
- Susan Collins winning by almost double digits
- Democrats failing to pick up a single Senate seat beyond CO and AZ, latter being decided by <2.5 pts.
- No incumbent Republican Congress(wo)man being defeated, Democrats failing to pick up TX-23
- Theresa Greenfield losing by a worse margin in IA than Roncetti in NM
- Steve Bullock losing by almost double digits
- North Carolina going Republican
- Amy McGrift losing Elliott County and performing worse than Alison Lundergan Grimes
- Democrats not flipping a single state legislature
- Collin Peterson losing by double digits
- NH Executive Council having a 4-1 GOP majority
- Ron Kind winning by a worse margin than Ashley Hinson

If someone told me all of that half a year ago, I would've been extremely pessimistic about the Democrats' chances and would've probably expected a relatively solid Trump victory (~2016 EV margin).

[Calthrina950]

I still don’t get how Trump somehow managed to improve his standing in a whole bunch of rural counties he won by ussr margins in last time!

You mean to tell me there were cletuses and billy bob mcgees out there that voted for hrc then switched to trump?

Or is it that these rural countries are literally losing dem voters due to young folk leaving, old dems dying?

There are a lot of rural counties where Republicans are still only getting 75% of the white vote or so, they can go up to 90% so one would expect movement to continue until the white vote reaches 90% in these counties.

I'll dread the day when rural America votes for Republicans by North Korea-like margins, if only for the implications that it will have for our country's political stability.

Many areas in big cities are already voting 90% dem.

I'm certainly aware of this, but I wouldn't be happy to see this become even more of a pervasive pattern.

[morgankingsley]

If you said in 2016, 17, 18, and even arguably 19, and had irrefutable proof that he had 74 million votes this election, almost everybody would assume he had won in a genuine landslide. He would flip NH, MN, NV, ME, CO at minimum with that with VA being in actual play.

[Person Man]

It’s going to be really interesting if this year turns out to be a harbinger of a realignment or if things just happened like this because there were 6 million hidden Trump voters the way there were 5 million hidden Obama voters.

This election was very Republican but was also very diverse. Especially with Trump voters in Florida being almost 40% pro-choice, it could be a sign of either a realignment or a one time weird obsession.

[Calthrina950]

It’s going to be really interesting if this year turns out to be a harbinger of a realignment or if things just happened like this because there were 6 million hidden Trump voters the way there were 5 million hidden Obama voters.

This election was very Republican but was also very diverse. Especially with Trump voters in Florida being almost 40% pro-choice, it could be a sign of either a realignment or a one time weird obsession.

I think there were hidden voters for both parties, and on balance, the Democratic base still outweighed the Republican base, as it has in every election since 1992 with the exception of 2004. But it should also be clear that the narrative of "The Emerging Democratic Majority" is deeply flawed, and that we are firmly set to remain a two-party system, with the pendulum swinging back and forth between the two parties, for the foreseeable future.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I still don’t get how Trump somehow managed to improve his standing in a whole bunch of rural counties he won by ussr margins in last time!

You mean to tell me there were cletuses and billy bob mcgees out there that voted for hrc then switched to trump?

Or is it that these rural countries are literally losing dem voters due to young folk leaving, old dems dying?

I believe rural WWC voters did not really go from Clinton to Trump, but from 3rd party or non-voter to Trump.

[Bootes Void]

Trump won Florida by over 3% and Miami dade was only a 7% loss

[jdk]

I still don’t get how Trump somehow managed to improve his standing in a whole bunch of rural counties he won by ussr margins in last time!

You mean to tell me there were cletuses and billy bob mcgees out there that voted for hrc then switched to trump?

Or is it that these rural countries are literally losing dem voters due to young folk leaving, old dems dying?

The one thing that really surprised me was that one of the few states where he made gains from 2016 was Arkansas, which indicates that there was still a small amount of residual Clinton support left there

[jdk]

Seeing those Miami Dade numbers and at first thinking there was some sort of error, seeing the North Carolina early voting numbers come in first and realizing Biden didn't establish enough of a lead to win there, seeing the numbers from Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, and realizing that none of those states would even be competitive, really had me freaking out that this was a repeat of 2016.

I started to calm down a little when I saw Biden comfortably winning Minnesota which gave me hope that would it translate to the other midwestern states, and Colorado getting called so quickly gave me hope that he had a good shot at winning AZ. Him performing much better than Hillary in NH and ME also gave me hope that this was

When Fox News called Arizona and I saw that he had a strong lead in NE-2, that's when I started to get confident.  I never doubted that he would win Michigan, and the wins in Arizona and NE-2 assured me that he could lose either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin and still win.  Then the NYT needle  suddenly realized how many outstanding votes were left to count in the Atlanta area and quickly flipped to showing Biden as the favorite.

I was still a little bit nervous because of how much Trump had run up the margins on ED voting in PA and wasn't sure the Milwaukee votes would be enough to flip Wisconsin.  Then when those 160K votes came in and Wisconsin flipped blue, I knew it was over.

[TwinGeeks99]

The fact that he came within 7.3 points of carrying Miami-Dade County.

[morgankingsley]

Him actually improving in California

[Hammy]

I still don’t get how Trump somehow managed to improve his standing in a whole bunch of rural counties he won by ussr margins in last time!

You mean to tell me there were cletuses and billy bob mcgees out there that voted for hrc then switched to trump?

Or is it that these rural countries are literally losing dem voters due to young folk leaving, old dems dying?

I believe rural WWC voters did not really go from Clinton to Trump, but from 3rd party or non-voter to Trump.

Also people who didn't vote at all last time.