2022 is a Critical Year for AOC's Career Path

[Fuzzy Bear]

In another thread, I voted that AOC and Tulsi Gabbard will be the most likely.  Gabbard will do so as part of a grudge match, and she will not be very successful.

AOC will likely run because there's a great chance not be in Congress after January 3, 2023 and that she will have been defeated in a primary for her seat in 2022.  Her seat, of course, will be a reconfigured seat due to redistricting.



NY State loses 2 Congressional seats for the 2022 election.  AOC represents district 14, which is, geographically half in Queens and have in the Bronx.  The districts from Long Island are going to be pushed Westward, and incumbents are going to be pushed into the same district.  The question is one of which Reps are going to retire.  The three (3) logical candidates for retirement are Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan, age 72), Rep. Nydia Velazaquez (D-Queens, age 67) and Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan, age 73).  All three (3) of these folks, each one a member of the Class of 1992, may retire; Maloney was almost defeated in the primary this year, and Velazquez is very much a backbencher.  Nadler is the most prominent of these three (3) Reps, but he's been morbidly obese and who knows what his health is.  He was also shoved to the side publicly by Adam Schiff during impeachment, and while Schiff is a scumbag, he's far more rhetorically effective than Nadler at this point.  The freshmen in the NYC delegation (Jamaal Bowman, Mondaire Jones, and Republican Nicole Malliotakis) aren't going anywhere.  Staten Island represents about 1/2 of a Congressional District in population, but the district is presently linked to Bay Ridge, Bensonhurst, and a few of the most Republican sections of Brooklyn.  I would suspect that the NYS Legislature would take pains to put the least Democratic territory into the Staten Island-based district, ensuring that all the other Democratic seats remain safe.  (The Legislature COULD combine Staten Island with a large chunk of Manhattan (the part that Maloney represents and remove the Brooklyn portion to force Malliotakis into a GE race with an incumbent Democrat, but she may well prevail, and taking out the Brooklyn portion might result in two (2) competitive NYC districts for Republicans, something they don't want.

All of this would mean that AOC's district would be compressed in ways that would make her vulnerable.  The best scenario would be for Maloney to retire.  Such an event would probably result in AOC running in a district that mostly contained Queens territory, but she'd be running in new territory bordering on hers.  She would, under that scenario, likely lose some territory to accomodate Adriano Espillat.  At the same time, she'd likely lose some of her Eastern Queens territory to either Tom Suozzi (who's Nassau district would be moving West) or Grace Meng, who's district is centered around the Queens area that is home to NY's largest Asian-American concentration, and who is an historic figure in her own right.  She'll be running, one way or another, in territory where she's NOT the incumbent, and in territory where an incumbent may well force a primary.  (I view Velazquez as far more likely to do this than Maloney, who's already almost lost and would not be a donor favorit.)

This is nothing new for NYC Representatives.  James Scheuer, after a failed run for Mayor, made a comeback in 1974 when Frank Brasco (a Democrat on the House Banking Committee who voted against investigating Watergate in the fall of 1972) was convicted of a crime and went to jail; Scheuer came to represent Brooklyn after previously representing parts of Queens and the Bronx.  Bella Abzug, the AOC of her day in many ways, LOST her primary in 1972, only to be renominated after the winner of the primary (Massive FF William Fitts Ryan, a stalwart reform liberal and an early opponent of the Vietnam War) died of cancer.  (Ryan's wife ran as a spoiler on the Liberal party line, stating that Abzug's primary hastened her husband's death.)  Abzug narrowly lost the Senate primay in 1976; that proved to be the effective end for her career, as her 1977 race for Mayor went poorly and she lost to a Republican in the East Side seat previously held by Ed Koch in a 1978 special election.  Abzug's career path is instructive for AOC; it demonstrates how important incumbency is when it comes to being important.

So what's going to happen to AOC in 2022?  And what will the aftershot of that be?

[S019]

Her seat is changed significantly/cut, Suozzi will likely need a chunk of the Bronx to shore him up, which forces the cut on either her or Torres and forces them to run in a primary against each other, as for who wins, it's a tossup

[7,052,770]

Re-elected to the House in 2022 and probably stays there for life.

She'll probably run for president in her 40s or later - she'll have lots of potential elections to do so, and even if she waits until 2068 she won't be any older than Bernie was this past year. I can't really predict what America will be like decades from now, but she definitely has the stage presence and media saavy to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully someone primaries her and she loses I don't like her since the Markey endorsement, I never liked her

[Devils30]

Her seat is changed significantly/cut, Suozzi will likely need a chunk of the Bronx to shore him up, which forces the cut on either her or Torres and forces them to run in a primary against each other, as for who wins, it's a tossup

Suozzi is nowhere near the Bronx geographically. Dems should try an aggressive 21-4 map though.

[S019]

Her seat is changed significantly/cut, Suozzi will likely need a chunk of the Bronx to shore him up, which forces the cut on either her or Torres and forces them to run in a primary against each other, as for who wins, it's a tossup

Suozzi is nowhere near the Bronx geographically. Dems should try an aggressive 21-4 map though.

His current seat includes the Queens end of the Whitestone and Throgs Neck Bridges, just cross them to get into the Bronx, especially since with losing 2 seats, all of these seats will need to expand.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Her seat is changed significantly/cut, Suozzi will likely need a chunk of the Bronx to shore him up, which forces the cut on either her or Torres and forces them to run in a primary against each other, as for who wins, it's a tossup

Suozzi is nowhere near the Bronx geographically. Dems should try an aggressive 21-4 map though.

Doing that would require slicing Staten Island in half, linking part of it with Manhattan and another portion of it with more liberal portions of Brooklyn would be the way to do that.  Such a move would likely result in pushback from pols that now enjoy safe districts.

I believe New York has laws as to contiguous boundaries for legislative districts, so I'm not sure how much that could happen.

[S019]

Her seat is changed significantly/cut, Suozzi will likely need a chunk of the Bronx to shore him up, which forces the cut on either her or Torres and forces them to run in a primary against each other, as for who wins, it's a tossup

Suozzi is nowhere near the Bronx geographically. Dems should try an aggressive 21-4 map though.

Doing that would require slicing Staten Island in half, linking part of it with Manhattan and another portion of it with more liberal portions of Brooklyn would be the way to do that.  Such a move would likely result in pushback from pols that now enjoy safe districts.

I believe New York has laws as to contiguous boundaries for legislative districts, so I'm not sure how much that could happen.

You can get to 3 upstate R's (Reed, Jacobs, Stefanik) with ease, and then just one downstate R (Zeldin) and SI can either go with Manhattan or Brooklyn (and water contiguity is legal in NY), it is ugly, but any gerrymander would be. The bigger issue here is trying to turn Garbarino into a D seat without endangering Suozzi or Rice, but sending Suozzi into the Bronx fixes some of that. Also no plan will split SI, the precincts in Manhattan and Brooklyn are blue enough to keep SI whole and have no problems.

[GALeftist]

I don't see her getting redistricted out. There are plenty of progressive NYC Dems in the NY State Legislature who would not be chill with destroying the left's heir apparent and besides she's probably a liability for surrounding NYC Dems since she might primary them. I think it's more likely that she either A. retires to go be a professional opinion haver somewhere (unlikely imo) B. runs for statewide office in 2022, 2024, or 2026 (no idea if she'd do well or not) or C. stays in the House to build up seniority and bide her time.

[Zaybay]

AOC's not getting redistricted out. Not only does she have a ton of allies that would make a huge fuss over such an arrangement (the ability to draw a map is predicated on an extremely narrow supermajority), but it also makes sense demographically for the seat to continue its current existence. NY-14 is about 50% Hispanic, and less than 20% white, making it a prime target for becoming a Hispanic (or at least minority opportunity) VRA seat. There's also the fact that cutting AOC's seat destroys the demographic balance in the region that would threaten other incumbents.

She's almost certainly just going to stay in the house. Her goal, as stated by her, is to get more people like her elected to office. She's not going to go for some crazy primary against Schumer or Cuomo just for the lolz.

Also, Suozzi getting a part of the Bronx is just bizzare.

[free my dawg]

Makes a quixotic run for President in 2024 against Harris, who blows her out of the water. She drops out and runs for re-election instead, only to try again in the 2030s.

[LtNOWIS]

Makes a quixotic run for President in 2024 against Harris, who blows her out of the water. She drops out and runs for re-election instead, only to try again in the 2030s.

Yeah with New York's late primaries and her being in a safe seat, there's little downside to making an attempt at the Dem nomination whenever it's slightly open. I voted congressional lifer like everyone else, but I think a presidential bid sooner rather than later would be a good strategic move for her.

[MargieCat]

I could see her getting reelected to the house in 2022 and then trying to primary Gillibrand in 2024.

I think she'd have more luck against Gillibrand than Schumer.

[Not Me, Us]

I think she'll stay in the House until a Senate seat opens up, likely Schumer retiring in 2028. She'll then run for President sometime in the 2030s.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I think the 2020 primaries made it a lot less critical. There were rumours that she’d be drawn out but the Bowman upset plus the nomination of Torres and relatively strong challenges elsewhere are probably making other NYDEMs nervous about taking in too many areas that might be ideal territory for a leftwing primary challenger.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I think she'll stay in the House until a Senate seat opens up, likely Schumer retiring in 2028. She'll then run for President sometime in the 2030s.

This is where I'm at as well

[Gustaf]

I've said it before but I'll say it again - I think AOC is a smart politician who won't do something particularly stupid (like a quixotic primary challenge).

I also don't think the NY Dems are as dumb so as to try to f**k her with redistricting. She already beat a top incumbent as an unknown bartender! Who wants to go up against her, lol. And who wants to piss off her fans?

I think she stays in the House and might go for senate if Schumer retires. Another possibility is that she goes for a local office. Mayor, governor etc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we discussing AOC and she endorsed Green new deal and Markey, she had no path beyond the House, Manchin and Sinema dont endorse Green New Deal

[jingletoes]

Literally no idea, but I hope her district is messed with. She is an embarrassment.