Is Luzerne County gone for Democrats?
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Author Topic: Is Luzerne County gone for Democrats?  (Read 903 times)
President Johnson
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« on: November 26, 2020, 03:28:00 PM »
Is Luzerne County, Pennsylvania gone for Democrats at the presidential level? Trump flipped it in 2016, after it voted twice for Obama. While Joe Biden in 2020 improved on Hillary's performance, he was unable to take it back. Tom Wolf carried the county in 2018, though. Who are these voters who backed Obama twice here but didn't come back to his vice president?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2020, 03:29:31 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2020, 03:57:01 PM by lfromnj »
With the current coalitions, yes presidentially.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2020, 02:43:22 AM »
At the presidential level, yes, unless there's a landslide (either of the traditional type, or one caused by a 2024 Trump third-party run).

Still competitive at the state level.
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YE
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2020, 02:45:57 AM »
Pains me to type this but yes barring an absolute blowout.
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TML
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2020, 03:18:44 AM »
Trump appealed to working class voters here in a rather unique way. Biden was essentially the same type of candidate that Hillary was, so he wasn't able to make significant headway among Obama-Trump voters. It remains to be seen whether WC voters will stick with the next Republican presidential nominee not named Trump, but for now, I think Democrats need to win statewide by at least 15 points in order to win this county.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2020, 01:53:28 PM »
There is a better chance of Lancaster flipping in the next 20 years than Luzerne.
Feel free to quote this when it comes true.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2020, 03:08:41 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on November 26, 2020, 03:28:00 PM
Is Luzerne County, Pennsylvania gone for Democrats at the presidential level? Trump flipped it in 2016, after it voted twice for Obama. While Joe Biden in 2020 improved on Hillary's performance, he was unable to take it back. Tom Wolf carried the county in 2018, though. Who are these voters who backed Obama twice here but didn't come back to his vice president?

Bob Casey couldn't even flip it 2018.
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2020, 03:47:14 PM »
Quote from: L.D. Smith on November 27, 2020, 03:08:41 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on November 26, 2020, 03:28:00 PM
Is Luzerne County, Pennsylvania gone for Democrats at the presidential level? Trump flipped it in 2016, after it voted twice for Obama. While Joe Biden in 2020 improved on Hillary's performance, he was unable to take it back. Tom Wolf carried the county in 2018, though. Who are these voters who backed Obama twice here but didn't come back to his vice president?

Bob Casey couldn't even flip it 2018.

He might have were it not for the fact that this was his opponent’s home county.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2020, 05:19:20 AM »
Quote from: TML on November 27, 2020, 03:18:44 AM
Trump appealed to working class voters here in a rather unique way. Biden was essentially the same type of candidate that Hillary was, so he wasn't able to make significant headway among Obama-Trump voters. It remains to be seen whether WC voters will stick with the next Republican presidential nominee not named Trump, but for now, I think Democrats need to win statewide by at least 15 points in order to win this county.

I doubt 15% is needed statewide in a presidential election. If a Democrat could win by five or six, I guess that would be enough. But that statewide margin is a tall order.
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AGA
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« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2020, 03:11:10 PM »
Yup
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VPH
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« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2020, 10:13:26 AM »
Not *totally* gone (Mullery held on, Shapiro won it) but probably difficult for a federal candidate to win at this point.
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