Which IL House R is in the most trouble?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which Illinois House Republican is in the most danger of being out of a seat in 2022?

[Frenchrepublican]

Davis as his district is the most likely to be nuked.

[GALeftist]

It's not that hard to snipe Davis by giving his district some more of Eastern St. Louis or even swinging it farther down the Mississippi, and there are plenty of college towns to give him too even without eating into Peoria, which Bustos certainly would like. The other ones will probably be fine.

[Donerail]

Bost: will probably get much more secure in a solidly R southern Illinois district, as he loses the St. Louis burbs in exchange for more rural area
LaHood: will be fine
Miller: will be fine

Davis: probably the most vulnerable, as he gains the Metro East at the expense of some rural terrain
Kinzinger: I’m sure there’s a way you could mess around with the configuration of the suburbs in a way that creates real danger for Kinzinger, though I’m not sure if IL Dems will be aggressive with it (could jeopardize Underwood or even Casten if you overdo it and pull too much from their seats).

[lfromnj]

Bost: will probably get much more secure in a solidly R southern Illinois district, as he loses the St. Louis burbs in exchange for more rural area
LaHood: will be fine

Davis: probably the most vulnerable, as he gains the Metro East at the expense of some rural terrain
Shimkus: may actually be in some personal trouble; the district itself is solidly R, but he lives in the part of the seat that juts into the Metro East. He’ll probably have to move and could be vulnerable in a primary, depending on how much they mess around with his seat.
Kinzinger: I’m sure there’s a way you could mess around with the configuration of the suburbs in a way that creates real danger for Kinzinger, though I’m not sure if IL Dems will be aggressive with it (could jeopardize Underwood or even Casten if you overdo it and pull too much from their seats).

Skimkus retired, its Mary Miller now.

[Frenchrepublican]

The question I'm wondering is if you can give Bustos a wave proof district while drawing another dem seat in downstate

[Roll Roons]

Bost: will probably get much more secure in a solidly R southern Illinois district, as he loses the St. Louis burbs in exchange for more rural area
LaHood: will be fine

Davis: probably the most vulnerable, as he gains the Metro East at the expense of some rural terrain
Shimkus: may actually be in some personal trouble; the district itself is solidly R, but he lives in the part of the seat that juts into the Metro East. He’ll probably have to move and could be vulnerable in a primary, depending on how much they mess around with his seat.
Kinzinger: I’m sure there’s a way you could mess around with the configuration of the suburbs in a way that creates real danger for Kinzinger, though I’m not sure if IL Dems will be aggressive with it (could jeopardize Underwood or even Casten if you overdo it and pull too much from their seats).

Skimkus retired, its Mary Miller now.

Yeah, she lives near Charleston. Metro East is also losing population and getting redder.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Davis District is gonna be eliminated by Pritzker, he is bound to eliminate any R District

[ElectionsGuy]

Davis is the only one who is possibly in trouble, but Underwood and Bustos could easily (and probably will) be more vulnerable.

[KaiserDave]

Davis is the only one who is possibly in trouble, but Underwood and Bustos could easily (and probably will) be more vulnerable.

Redistricting tho

[ElectionsGuy]

Davis is the only one who is possibly in trouble, but Underwood and Bustos could easily (and probably will) be more vulnerable.

Redistricting tho

Uh huh... I know.

IL-17 is already gerrymandered. Not to mention, Illinois will lose a seat, meaning if anything these seats will have to expand and not shrink down into more urban Dem-leaning areas. Not sure how Underwood is going to get some much better seat when there are 11 other Chicagoland seats and Democratic incumbents. AND it will likely be an R-leaning year, so yeah, I would still rather be Davis than Bustos. 

[S019]

Davis is going to be drawn into a Safe D snake district, so him

[Mr.Phips]

Davis is the only one who is possibly in trouble, but Underwood and Bustos could easily (and probably will) be more vulnerable.

Redistricting tho

Uh huh... I know.

IL-17 is already gerrymandered. Not to mention, Illinois will lose a seat, meaning if anything these seats will have to expand and not shrink down into more urban Dem-leaning areas. Not sure how Underwood is going to get some much better seat when there are 11 other Chicagoland seats and Democratic incumbents. AND it will likely be an R-leaning year, so yeah, I would still rather be Davis than Bustos. 

You can easily extend IL-14 closer into Chicago (IL-07 and IL-04 can give up Dem precincts).  Bustos can take more downstate cities, which obviously means that Dems can’t create a new Dem downstate seat. 

[It’s so Joever]

Davis will get a snake district if Madigan gets his way so yeah.

[lfromnj]

Davis will get a snake district if Madigan gets his way so yeah.

Madigan may not even survive
The end of an era

[Non Swing Voter]

I hope it's not Kinzinger.  He's one of the few Republicans in congress who isn't complete garbage.  He's actually more reasonable than many Democrats.  Congress needs people like him to balance out the crazy trash.

[JGibson]

Rodney Davis (the swingiest of the 5) or Mary Miller (because she has the lowest seniority of the 5).