If you had to guess what Biden state will be a national bellwether...

[bagelman]

Which one would you pick?

Ohio was a national bellwether from 1964 through 2016 in terms of the winner of the presidential election, or in the case of 2000 the candidate that was declared the winner regardless. That's 13 election cycles.

If 2020 is the first of 13 election cycles for a state bellwether that replaces Ohio, it will be correct for every election through 2072, until it finally votes for the loser of the 2076 election.

Which state will it be?

[TodayJunior]

I’m thinking Wisconsin.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Pennsylvania. Wisconsin seems Lean R to me by default.

[_.]

Wisconsin has countervailing trends in that Madison, the bluest part of the state, is growing, while Republicans still have room to improve in the driftless region in Wisconsin's Southwest.

So I think Wisconsin's a good bet

It's still very risky, though, especially because of how close it looks to be. It could go the wrong way by 0.2% or so and that'd remove its bellwether status.

[Crucial_Waukesha]

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both, which were the co-tipping point states in 2020.

Arizona is a possibility, but I wouldn't call it a bellwether quite yet. It was too close in 2020, and hadn't voted Dem for a long time prior. It remains to be seen what path it takes: it could remain highly competitive, it could remain stubbornly R-leaning like NC after '08, or it could continually shift blue (VA/CO) or remain light blue (NV).

[DS0816]

Which one would you pick?

Ohio was a national bellwether from 1964 through 2016 in terms of the winner of the presidential election, or in the case of 2000 the candidate that was declared the winner regardless. That's 13 election cycles.

If 2020 is the first of 13 election cycles for a state bellwether that replaces Ohio, it will be correct for every election through 2072, until it finally votes for the loser of the 2076 election.

Which state will it be?

Premise of this is faulty.

It isn’t so much how many consecutive election cycles; it is about bellwethers for a considerable period which will continue to play out for however long such bellwether status will last.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—named in order of their population ranks—are the best bellwether states nowadays.

They are the only four states which carried for all U.S. presidential-election winners beginning with the Democratic realigning election of 2008. (Only one Republican win since—in 2016—and the Rust Belt trio carried.)

A state narrowly missing out is North Carolina. It did not vote with the winners in 2012 and 2020. But, it has been one state away each time. Barack Obama, who flipped and carried it in 2008, lost it in 2012 as he carried 26 states and North Carolina was his No. 27 best state. (Had he been re-elected with higher numbers, which is historically the norm, he would have retained it.) Joe Biden, in 2020, carried 25 states and North Carolina was his No. 26 best state. My conclusion: The Democrats, even though they won three of the last four cycles, are not hitting the numbers—and, with that, the states count—that they should be able to reach.

[Xing]

It could be any one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. I think Abdullah’s point about Wisconsin is spot on, and I think it applies to an extent in the other two states as well.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'd go with Pennsylvania.  It has a lot of elements of a lot of states the same way Ohio used to.  The country is getting more and more urban so I think you need to pick a state with a fairly large metro area.  Philly seems to fit this better than say Detroit or Milwaukee.  It is also a state with a lot of rural and suburban elements as well as smaller cities and exurbs.  It's also not as polarized along racial lines as say Georgia.  The demographics are a bit whiter than the country as a whole but it certainly encapsulates national elements of growth among hispanics and latinos, particularly in the Philly suburbs. 

The answer to this is also heavily dependent on if Texas flips and becomes a reliably democratic state.  That changes the math considerably and then a state that is currently considered solid blue like a Colorado, Oregon or Virginia would be the bellwether. 

[Schiff for Senate]

MI, WI and PA already have a headstart. Shockingly, now that OH's 1964 onward, FL's 1996 onward, and IA's 2004 onward streaks have been broken, those three competitive enough states have the longest voting for the winner streak, at 4 elections (started 2008; all three were Kerry '04 states). One of those is probably the right pick. Maybe PA.

[here2view]

Pennsylvania. Biden has a relatively straightforward path to 270 that doesn't involve Wisconsin (Clinton 2016 + MI + PA + GA)

[Chips]

Pennsylvania.