WI State Assembly Redistricting

[walleye26]

My brother knows somebody who’s very active in the WI GOP and just ran for state assembly. He says the WISGOP is considering giving some Districts more to the Democrats in exchange for trying to get more rural areas. Apparently they are going to try to breakup Milroy and Brewely’s districts up north along the Superior shore in exchange for giving the Dems a few suburban seats. Apparently they may be willing to:
Make AD-30 more Democrat (it will be overpopulated) by removing some conservative towns out of it. They believe Hudson and River Falls will get bluer.
Make AD-82 bluer by adding more of Greenfield and taking out some of the R parts of Franklin. Skrowonski is like 80 and probably won’t be around much longer.
Possibly sacrificing AD-42 (Plumer) because Madison will get another district. Plumber is 66 and unlikely to advance to Congress since Grothman is the current representative.
Possibly giving D’s a Sheboygan and/or Appleton/Green Bay Assembly district as well to shore up the Fox Valley.
My brother’s friend said there’s some Heavy debate within the WISGOP right now. I believe it. But I do have to say going after Milroy (who barely won) would be pretty smart in exchange for some of the districts mentioned. I don’t think the WisDems would go for it though. WI is so gerrymandered right now if the courts drew a fair map even in a red wave of 5-6 points in 2022 I could still see Dems picking up 2-3 AD seats.
What do you guys think?

[Mr.Phips]

My brother knows somebody who’s very active in the WI GOP and just ran for state assembly. He says the WISGOP is considering giving some Districts more to the Democrats in exchange for trying to get more rural areas. Apparently they are going to try to breakup Milroy and Brewely’s districts up north along the Superior shore in exchange for giving the Dems a few suburban seats. Apparently they may be willing to:
Make AD-30 more Democrat (it will be overpopulated) by removing some conservative towns out of it. They believe Hudson and River Falls will get bluer.
Make AD-82 bluer by adding more of Greenfield and taking out some of the R parts of Franklin. Skrowonski is like 80 and probably won’t be around much longer.
Possibly sacrificing AD-42 (Plumer) because Madison will get another district. Plumber is 66 and unlikely to advance to Congress since Grothman is the current representative.
Possibly giving D’s a Sheboygan and/or Appleton/Green Bay Assembly district as well to shore up the Fox Valley.
My brother’s friend said there’s some Heavy debate within the WISGOP right now. I believe it. But I do have to say going after Milroy (who barely won) would be pretty smart in exchange for some of the districts mentioned. I don’t think the WisDems would go for it though. WI is so gerrymandered right now if the courts drew a fair map even in a red wave of 5-6 points in 2022 I could still see Dems picking up 2-3 AD seats.
What do you guys think?

Would the suburban seats that Dems picked up in 2018 and 2020 also be protected?  In the state senate, i assume Republicans would like to make SD-31 and SD-25 a bit better for them.  Would they be willing to give Dems SD-05 and SD-08 by making them bluer?

[walleye26]

My brother knows somebody who’s very active in the WI GOP and just ran for state assembly. He says the WISGOP is considering giving some Districts more to the Democrats in exchange for trying to get more rural areas. Apparently they are going to try to breakup Milroy and Brewely’s districts up north along the Superior shore in exchange for giving the Dems a few suburban seats. Apparently they may be willing to:
Make AD-30 more Democrat (it will be overpopulated) by removing some conservative towns out of it. They believe Hudson and River Falls will get bluer.
Make AD-82 bluer by adding more of Greenfield and taking out some of the R parts of Franklin. Skrowonski is like 80 and probably won’t be around much longer.
Possibly sacrificing AD-42 (Plumer) because Madison will get another district. Plumber is 66 and unlikely to advance to Congress since Grothman is the current representative.
Possibly giving D’s a Sheboygan and/or Appleton/Green Bay Assembly district as well to shore up the Fox Valley.
My brother’s friend said there’s some Heavy debate within the WISGOP right now. I believe it. But I do have to say going after Milroy (who barely won) would be pretty smart in exchange for some of the districts mentioned. I don’t think the WisDems would go for it though. WI is so gerrymandered right now if the courts drew a fair map even in a red wave of 5-6 points in 2022 I could still see Dems picking up 2-3 AD seats.
What do you guys think?

Would the suburban seats that Dems picked up in 2018 and 2020 also be protected?  In the state senate, i assume Republicans would like to make SD-31 and SD-25 a bit better for them.  Would they be willing to give Dems SD-05 and SD-08 by making them bluer?

Yes, they would make the newly won Dem seats bluer. They may give Dems SD-05 in exchange for SD-25.

[Mr.Phips]

My brother knows somebody who’s very active in the WI GOP and just ran for state assembly. He says the WISGOP is considering giving some Districts more to the Democrats in exchange for trying to get more rural areas. Apparently they are going to try to breakup Milroy and Brewely’s districts up north along the Superior shore in exchange for giving the Dems a few suburban seats. Apparently they may be willing to:
Make AD-30 more Democrat (it will be overpopulated) by removing some conservative towns out of it. They believe Hudson and River Falls will get bluer.
Make AD-82 bluer by adding more of Greenfield and taking out some of the R parts of Franklin. Skrowonski is like 80 and probably won’t be around much longer.
Possibly sacrificing AD-42 (Plumer) because Madison will get another district. Plumber is 66 and unlikely to advance to Congress since Grothman is the current representative.
Possibly giving D’s a Sheboygan and/or Appleton/Green Bay Assembly district as well to shore up the Fox Valley.
My brother’s friend said there’s some Heavy debate within the WISGOP right now. I believe it. But I do have to say going after Milroy (who barely won) would be pretty smart in exchange for some of the districts mentioned. I don’t think the WisDems would go for it though. WI is so gerrymandered right now if the courts drew a fair map even in a red wave of 5-6 points in 2022 I could still see Dems picking up 2-3 AD seats.
What do you guys think?

Would the suburban seats that Dems picked up in 2018 and 2020 also be protected?  In the state senate, i assume Republicans would like to make SD-31 and SD-25 a bit better for them.  Would they be willing to give Dems SD-05 and SD-08 by making them bluer?

Yes, they would make the newly won Dem seats bluer. They may give Dems SD-05 in exchange for SD-25.

If they agreed to throw in making WI-03 more Dem (maybe giving it parts of Dane county), I think Dems may take such deal.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f025f89-0375-421c-9f19-61909408cb83

Heres my non partisan map for WI.

Hillary only won 38 districts and I doubt Biden did much better.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f025f89-0375-421c-9f19-61909408cb83

Heres my non partisan map for WI.

Hillary only won 38 districts and I doubt Biden did much better.

Have you taken into account nesting of HDs to form SDs?

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f025f89-0375-421c-9f19-61909408cb83

Heres my non partisan map for WI.

Hillary only won 38 districts and I doubt Biden did much better.

Have you taken into account nesting of HDs to form SDs?

No forgot about that, but just wanted to see how this would go. Not very good for WI d's overall as the WOW districts are still too red to be winnable  . Honestly you need to keep the old GOP gerrymander in WOW to help Ds out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I kinda wish WI would end nesting of HDs to form SDs. In any case, it's best if you draw a Senate map first.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I kinda wish WI would end nesting of HDs to form SDs. In any case, it's best if you draw a Senate map first.

Nah as someone who's drawn MN legislative districts before which are also nested (two per SD instead of three though), I've found the best way is to draw the House first and then combine them to create the SDs. If you draw the larger districts first you can create cases where there's no great way to properly divide them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I kinda wish WI would end nesting of HDs to form SDs. In any case, it's best if you draw a Senate map first.

Nah as someone who's drawn MN legislative districts before which are also nested (two per SD instead of three though), I've found the best way is to draw the House first and then combine them to create the SDs. If you draw the larger districts first you can create cases where there's no great way to properly divide them.

For the time being, I take your word for it re: MN.
In Wisconsin though, you can use +/-5% deviation and draw SDs that keep counties whole (with the whole nesting thing in mind - try to avoid drawing seats that would make for completely illogical HDs), then draw HDs within those.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1331741779712991232

Lmao WI- Dems.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I count three districts on that Biden might've won (the Eau Claire, Green Bay and Appleton ones, actually possible the south Milwaukee one too) and it looks more like a mild gerrymander claiming to be a fair map.

[lfromnj]

I count three districts on that Biden might've won (the Eau Claire, Green Bay and Appleton ones, actually possible the south Milwaukee one too) and it looks more like a mild gerrymander claiming to be a fair map.

The tweeter in that question is a left winger, The Eau Claire area outside of Eau Claire itself swung R. I think Biden still narrowly lost the Eau Claire district.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1331741779712991232

Lmao WI- Dems.

Well, it's bad, but not terrible.   WI senate is only 33 seats, so 17 for majority.  The two suburban Milwaukee seats are definitely moving toward dems, along with the Green Bay/Appleton seats (slowly).   Those four plus the Kenshoa/Racine and Driftless seats and they "could" get a majority. 

Not saying it's likely, just that it does matter whether or not Wisconsin is gerrymandered.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah I'm interested in the Walker/Evers numbers for that. Evers at least won the Driftless seat.

[lfromnj]

Yeah I'm interested in the Walker/Evers numbers for that. Evers at least won the Driftless seat.

Its not like WI D's are competent

They can't even win Clinton driftless seats.

Instead they spend 500k against Vos in a Mccain/ Trump +20 seat

Anyway the link has the map where you can see all numbers

Evers did do a decent bit better but anyway the problem for WI D's is they need to win the rurals but also the suburbs and the Fox River Valley seats. The GOP just needs to win 1-2 seats from all of those.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

By the way, the nesting of 3 State Assembly Districts in each State Senate District is not actually required by law in the state. Its only like that currently due to a conscious design choice.

[GALeftist]

I'm somewhat new to this but it seems to me that a map that provides a deep structural advantage to one party is by definition not fair, regardless of whether the process is explicitly partisan or not. Under a FPTP system it seems like there's at least a solid argument to be made that a "fair" map is the one that enfranchises the most people i.e. one that represents the citizens of the state proportionally, regardless of how it looks or how it's drawn.

[lfromnj]

I'm somewhat new to this but it seems to me that a map that provides a deep structural advantage to one party is by definition not fair, regardless of whether the process is explicitly partisan or not. Under a FPTP system it seems like there's at least a solid argument to be made that a "fair" map is the one that enfranchises the most people i.e. one that represents the citizens of the state proportionally, regardless of how it looks or how it's drawn.

That means passing proportional rep if you actually want that but under FPTP/districts it would be absurd to make someone from Grant county be represented by some super liberal from Madison in the state assembly/senate. From a quick check through I can't see any major problems in his map but its just how it ended up. There's no nefarious intent or something there,  he just made the best map possible that makes each district have the most logical communities from his POV.

Again I did find it funny how you complained that Robin Vos nearly only gave Ds 2/8 seats when he actually meant to give 3/8.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think Wisconsin's Republican geographic bias might be a little overstated. Take this fair map for example. It has 17 Evers districts and 16 Walker districts (although about 1/3 of each are within a couple percentage points.

[lfromnj]

I think Wisconsin's Republican geographic bias might be a little overstated. Take this fair map for example. It has 17 Evers districts and 16 Walker districts (although about 1/3 of each are within a couple percentage points.

That dudes map had like 14 evers districts.  The problem is the d coalition isn't gonna yield Ds more seats till Waukesha starts moving swing. And  although the Ozaukee district in his map is fine and the same as yours your NW milwaukee map is not good. Rather one of the suburban cities should paired with WOW just like Ozaukee goes with the Lake shore.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here is my State Senate Map which is composite of 24 Trump - Clinton 9 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1332385b-f10d-4b56-aa2f-b42d25dd3aa3

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I'm very unpleased by the fact that it looks very difficult to put the Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland trio in the Democratic Senate seat they deserve, at least judging by your maps.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've already drawn a state senate map. The only barrier at this state is state assembly.  I'll post both when I'm done with both.

[lfromnj]

I've already drawn a state senate map. The only barrier at this state is state assembly.  I'll post both when I'm done with both.

Its actually easier to start with the state assembly, you can create your districts, then make a copy of your map and then just mash em together.