Asian-American vote historically

[Asenath Waite]

How have Asian-Americans voted historically? I know it's probably varied pretty significantly based on ethnicity and region.

[neostassenite31]

It's not an easy group to define or sample from and pre-2000 exit polls all suffered from small sample sizes (it used be <1% of the electorate). That said, if you believe what the pre-2000 polls say, you will likely come out with the impression that Asians used to be much more inclined to support Republicans than in recent cycles (except maybe 2014?).

Also, presumably a larger share of self-identified Asians were first generation immigrants in 1992 than today. We do know more definitively that first generation visible-minority immigrants tend to support Republicans at a higher rate than second and third generation visible-minority groups. 

[Kamala's side hoe]

Also, presumably a larger share of self-identified Asians were first generation immigrants in 1992 than today. We do know more definitively that first generation visible-minority immigrants tend to support Republicans at a higher rate than second and third generation visible-minority groups.  

This is debatable given how immigration from Asia has accelerated post-2000. But I don’t know for sure. Pew Research says the ratio of foreign-born voters to native-born voters was 2:1 in 2018, and that both native-born voters and under 18s comprise 19% of the total Asian American population.

1992: 55-31 Bush [R]
1996: 48-43 Dole [R]
2000: 55-41 Gore [D]
2004: 56-43 Kerry [D]
2008: 62-35 Obama [D]
2012: 73-26 Obama [D]
2016: 65-29 HRC [D]
2020: exit polls average high 60s Biden, ~30 Trump. AP: 70-28, NBC: 63-31, CNN: 61-34. Ones with detailed breakdowns of Asian subgroups are 67-69 Biden, 28-30 Trump.

[mileslunn]

They used to vote Republican as tend to have above average incomes so were historically attracted to Republican's free market policies and fiscal conservatism.  But in recent years have swung heavily to Democrats due to newer generations being more progressive and also GOP being more nativist and populist has been a turn off.  Another factor is simply location: 1/3 of Asians live in California which used to vote GOP, but now one of the bluest states.

[Matty]

Also, presumably a larger share of self-identified Asians were first generation immigrants in 1992 than today. We do know more definitively that first generation visible-minority immigrants tend to support Republicans at a higher rate than second and third generation visible-minority groups.  

This is debatable given how immigration from Asia has accelerated post-2000. But I don’t know for sure. Pew Research says the ratio of foreign-born voters to native-born voters was 2:1 in 2018, and that both native-born voters and under 18s comprise 19% of the total Asian American population.

1992: 55-31 Bush [R]
1996: 48-43 Dole [R]
2000: 55-41 Gore [D]
2004: 56-43 Kerry [D]
2008: 62-35 Obama [D]
2012: 73-26 Obama [D]
2016: 65-29 HRC [D]
2020: exit polls average high 60s Biden, low 30s Trump. AP says 70-28, NBC says 63-31. Ones with detailed breakdowns of Asian subgroups are in between.

I am looking at actual precinct  election data in CA for 2020, and it looks to me like trump about matched mccain in many asian areas.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Also, presumably a larger share of self-identified Asians were first generation immigrants in 1992 than today. We do know more definitively that first generation visible-minority immigrants tend to support Republicans at a higher rate than second and third generation visible-minority groups.  

This is debatable given how immigration from Asia has accelerated post-2000. But I don’t know for sure. Pew Research says the ratio of foreign-born voters to native-born voters was 2:1 in 2018, and that both native-born voters and under 18s comprise 19% of the total Asian American population.

1992: 55-31 Bush [R]
1996: 48-43 Dole [R]
2000: 55-41 Gore [D]
2004: 56-43 Kerry [D]
2008: 62-35 Obama [D]
2012: 73-26 Obama [D]
2016: 65-29 HRC [D]
2020: exit polls average high 60s Biden, low 30s Trump. AP says 70-28, NBC says 63-31. Ones with detailed breakdowns of Asian subgroups are in between.

I am looking at actual precinct  election data in CA for 2020, and it looks to me like trump about matched mccain in many asian areas.

No idea how McCain did in the heavily Asian areas of CA, but he didn't do that much better than Trump nationally. I'm guessing Trump gained with ethnic Chinese and South Asians relative to McCain, but I have no idea if the precinct data backs that up.

I don't think Trump did as well as McCain did with Vietnamese Americans overall. Some exit polls suggest he won them by a little more than Romney did. Others suggest he lost them by less than in 2016 (more info). Either way they clearly swung R from 4 years ago.

[Intell]

It's clear that there will be a divide amongst working class asians and professional asians this election, in a way it wasn't in past election. This explains Trump's gains, but also why he didn't do better than McCain or Bush because of the latter group.

[prag_prog]

I can't remember the source but from what I remember, native born Asian-Americans are bit more dem leaning than foreign born Asian-Americans.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Generally Republican (sometimes very much so) - based on anti-Communism, social conservatism, a lot of Asian immigrants being business owners, and the GOP not being as openly...uh...indifferent in the past to (the votes of) non-whites.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Generally Republican (sometimes very much so) - based on anti-Communism, social conservatism, a lot of Asian immigrants being business owners, and the GOP not being as openly...uh...indifferent in the past to (the votes of) non-whites.

What’s more, “socially conservative” doesn’t mean what it means here in the United States. Some of the most socially-conservative immigrants you meet are anti-gun rights, anti-free market, and pro-choice. They do not see ideological soulmates in their socially-conservative American counterparts. They reflexively nod when they hear rhetoric about getting guns off the streets or the right for everyone to have free health care or even the right for free pre-school. Their lifestyle is socially conservative and pro-family; their politics are usually not.

[Kamala's side hoe]

It's interesting to look through old (pre-45) Atlas threads/predictions on how Asian Americans voted or would eventually vote.

May 2004: Ethnic politics

Aug 2007: Asian Vote by State

2007 Beet's anecdotal experience is similar to my childhood/teenage perception of how Indian Americans voted. The ratio of right-leaning/anti-D to left-leaning/pro-D brown North Americans on 2021 Atlas is higher than among the brown North Americans I know IRL.

June 2009: Will the Asian-American vote ever become significant in national elections?

Feb 2013: The Asian Vote by Ethnic Group

Sept 2014: Lighter skinned Latinos and Asians vote more Republican

My first reaction to this -

Put simply, even after you account for education, age, income, and foreign birth, lighter-skinned Latinos and Asians are more likely to identify and vote Republican than their darker-skinned counterparts.

 - is to wonder whether it could just as accurately be rephrased as -

Put simply, even after you account for education, age, income, Latino and Asian Republicans are more likely to identify as light-skinned than their Democratic counterparts.

May 2016: What % of the Asian American vote will Hillary receive?

Judging from the responses in this thread, it seems like I was not alone in assuming 2012 Obama's 73% would be the new normal/D baseline for Asian American voters moving forward.

Sept 2020: AAPIData: Biden +24 among Asian voters (14% Undecided)

> Me: Biden is consistently underpolling Obama 2012/HRC 2016 while Trump is consistently polling (marginally) better than in 2016; 54-30 topline is pretty good reason to be a doomer
> Forumlurker161: Yeah no. Trump will do even worse with Asians as a whole than in 2016.
> Progressive Pessimist: Of all racial demographics I actually expect Biden to gain the most with Asian Americans in the end.
> David Shor, 6 months later: there’s evidence that there was something like a 5 percent decline in Asian American support for Democrats, likely with a lot of variance among subgroups

[Kamala's side hoe]

It's interesting to look through old (pre-45) Atlas threads/predictions on how Asian Americans voted or would eventually vote.

This seems like the most appropriate thread to necro for my Part 2 to the R-Filastin poster who's fond of ursine plushies. My inner Leipist (not my inner BIPOC left-lib solidarity hack) feels the need to effortpost

To the extent the GOP would improve among Chinese by being less...weirdly religious right, it'd probably improve among /everyone/. In 2012, Asian-Americans voted pretty much identically to white people if you adjusted for religion.

This chart from 2012 clearly states otherwise- source


AsAm evangelical Protestant: 28 D-56 R (Non-Hispanic White is 24 D-70 R)
AsAm mainline Protestant: 44 D-37 R (Non-Hispanic White is 44 D-49 R)
AsAm Catholic: 41 D-42 R (Non-Hispanic White is 39 D-53 R)
AsAm unaffiliated: 63 D-21 R (Non-Hispanic White is 62 D-31 R)

As of 2023, I don't have hard numbers, but I strongly suspect that if you adjusted for both religion and education, almost every Asian ethnicity would be more Republican than white Americans.

I don't know where you'd find data demonstrating that Albanian, Bosnian, Turkish, Lebanese, Palestinian, Egyptian, Moroccan, Kurdish, and Iranian American dentists are collectively more D than each of Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Indian Muslim, and (to use a non-Subcontinental example) Filipino Muslim pharmacists but you do you bruh...

The concept of non-Asian Hindus/Buddhists really seems like a demographic oxymoron but idk, maybe there are enough countercultural White Americans marrying Asian Americans who somehow decide to convert to their partner's ancestral religion for the small crosstab of Non-Hispanic White Hindus/Buddhists to be noticeably more D than their Asian counterparts?

I can see an argument for this with atheists given how overwhelmingly D and socially + culturally left-wing White atheists are. (Meanwhile right-of-center AAPI online talking head Razib Khan is an open atheist). It's also conceivable that younger AAPI voters who drop out of their birth religion and become unaffiliated are more left-leaning than their Non-Hispanic White counterparts, leaving the remaining <insert religion> AAPI subgroup that much more R.

But overall this claim really feels like it's driven by the fallacy of heavily gentrified and majority Non-Hispanic White parts of Titanium D cities in Safe D states being more one-sidedly D than nearby urban East/Southeast Asian enclaves. I really feel like you're underestimating how comparatively R devoutly Christian college(+) educated White people still are across much of the country.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Were Asians able to vote before 1964?

[TDAS04]

Were Asians able to vote before 1964?

Um, yes, if they were US citizens. Most Asian-Americans did not live in states with Jim Crow-style voter suppression.

[Sumner 1868]

Judging by Hawaii, I'm pretty sure Asians who weren't from communist countries were already a Democratic constituency since the New Deal.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Were Asians able to vote before 1964?

Um, yes, if they were US citizens. Most Asian-Americans did not live in states with Jim Crow-style voter suppression.

Yes, and some Japanese-Americans could even vote from internment camps.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Judging by Hawaii, I'm pretty sure Asians who weren't from communist countries were already a Democratic constituency since the New Deal.

Hawaii was Republican before 1954.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Judging by Hawaii, I'm pretty sure Asians who weren't from communist countries were already a Democratic constituency since the New Deal.

Hawaii was Republican before 1954.

In no small part due to the dominance of the Big Five corporations, who heavily favored the state GOP. The children of Japanese and Filipino immigrants were as D as the children of other plantation laborer ethnic groups.