Vice President Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Haley will never win a GOP primary unless she can somehow find a time machine.

Ds traded a lot of rural, small city, and exurban strength for higher propensity professional voters. These people will turn out for Harris. The R side of the trade (non-degree holding voters) are potent because they turn out en masse for someone like Trump but not for someone like Leah Vukmir. Haley is almost precisely the wrong type of fit for these voters.

The more interesting question is how much does turnout plummet for a boring race like this. Harris might crack 70 million votes.

Bolded is key.  Granted,  Harris certainly underperforms Biden to counterbalance, but Haley would have a tough climb.

[Skill and Chance]

Harris has her weaknesses, but a super interventionist R committed to AEI economics would be the easiest possible opponent for her.  Lean Harris.

[Bickle]

Haley would win but by less than Hawley, DeSantis or even maybe Trump against Harris. Haley's problem is that she will struggle to get the Trump base. She would end up getting most of it but I think she would lose 5 or 10% of it.

PV predictions for 2024:
Haley 48% Harris 48.5%
Hawley 50% Harris 47%
DeSantis 51% Harris 47.5%
Trump 49.5% Harris 48.5%

LOL, DeSantis is a dweeb.  He wouldn't even make it out of a GOP primary.  And Hawley is a fake Populist that's too polished to appeal to the Trump base.  Haley is too "normal" for today's GOP.

Carlson would have the best shot, besides Trump himself.  Though after questioning Powell Carlson has hurt his standing with the MAGA crowd.

[Bickle]

I don't see how republicans will win the PV unless they run up the score in red states and keep it close in Blue states.

Also Lol at the people who think the suburbs will go back to magically voting R once Trump leaves

No but the dems overperformed in the suburbs in 2020. There will be movement back in 2024. GOP can win the PV by running up the south, getting to 35 36% in CA, winning the Midwest big 3 states by 3-4% (MI, WI, PA) and increasing with Hispanics: winning Arizona, Nevada and getting close in New Mexico.

GOP's gains with hispanics are overrated.  Biden still crushed him by 30+.  Hispanics always tend to vote for the incumbent president at a higher level than the first time.  They voted for Bush at a very high clip in 2004, that was all but wiped out by Obama.  If Biden is successful, especially with immigration reform, Dems could easily win back some hispanic support they lost.

[SN2903]

I don't see how republicans will win the PV unless they run up the score in red states and keep it close in Blue states.

Also Lol at the people who think the suburbs will go back to magically voting R once Trump leaves

No but the dems overperformed in the suburbs in 2020. There will be movement back in 2024. GOP can win the PV by running up the south, getting to 35 36% in CA, winning the Midwest big 3 states by 3-4% (MI, WI, PA) and increasing with Hispanics: winning Arizona, Nevada and getting close in New Mexico.

GOP's gains with hispanics are overrated.  Biden still crushed him by 30+.  Hispanics always tend to vote for the incumbent president at a higher level than the first time.  They voted for Bush at a very high clip in 2004, that was all but wiped out by Obama.  If Biden is successful, especially with immigration reform, Dems could easily win back some hispanic support they lost.

We'll see. Dems wokeness is hurting them with hispanics and AAs.

[Real Texan Politics]

Nikki could win if the economy crumbles under Biden's administration.

My gut also says she chooses someone from the midwest as her running mate. Maybe Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Pat Toomey, John James?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Harris.

I think it's going to be very difficult for Republicans to replicate Trump's midwest strength, and Haley is definitely not the candidate to be able to do that.

[Bickle]

I don't see how republicans will win the PV unless they run up the score in red states and keep it close in Blue states.

Also Lol at the people who think the suburbs will go back to magically voting R once Trump leaves

No but the dems overperformed in the suburbs in 2020. There will be movement back in 2024. GOP can win the PV by running up the south, getting to 35 36% in CA, winning the Midwest big 3 states by 3-4% (MI, WI, PA) and increasing with Hispanics: winning Arizona, Nevada and getting close in New Mexico.

GOP's gains with hispanics are overrated.  Biden still crushed him by 30+.  Hispanics always tend to vote for the incumbent president at a higher level than the first time.  They voted for Bush at a very high clip in 2004, that was all but wiped out by Obama.  If Biden is successful, especially with immigration reform, Dems could easily win back some hispanic support they lost.

We'll see. Dems wokeness is hurting them with hispanics and AAs.

Has it?  Or did Trump benefit from being an incumbent like Dubya did?

you should be more worried about those working class whites who gave Biden the election.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Harris.

I think it's going to be very difficult for Republicans to replicate Trump's midwest strength, and Haley is definitely not the candidate to be able to do that.

Other than in OH/IA, Trump midwest strength wasn't that much better than George W Bush . Its Obama's performances there which were the exception where in 2008 he literally had the best performances in WI/MI/PA than any Dem has since 1964 and in 2012 the autobailout/the tea party moving the gop way right on economics allowed him to do really well again.

The problem is that was the exception not Trump's performances in the Midwest. Just look at Bush 2004 vs Trump 2020 in MN/WI/MI/PA

MN:

2004: Kerry wins its by 3.5 points
2020: Biden wins it by 7.1 points

WI:

2004: Kerry wins it by 0.4 points
2020: Biden wins it by 0.6 points

MI:

2004: Kerry wins it by 3.4 points
2020: Biden wins it by 2.8 points

PA:

2004: Kerry wins it by 2.5 ponts
2020: Biden wins it by 1.2 points

Remember though in many midwestern cities the population has actually dropped, like in Detriot which is a huge reason why these states have trended Republican since 2004 .

[EastwoodS]

I don't see how republicans will win the PV unless they run up the score in red states and keep it close in Blue states.

Also Lol at the people who think the suburbs will go back to magically voting R once Trump leaves

No but the dems overperformed in the suburbs in 2020. There will be movement back in 2024. GOP can win the PV by running up the south, getting to 35 36% in CA, winning the Midwest big 3 states by 3-4% (MI, WI, PA) and increasing with Hispanics: winning Arizona, Nevada and getting close in New Mexico.

GOP's gains with hispanics are overrated.  Biden still crushed him by 30+.  Hispanics always tend to vote for the incumbent president at a higher level than the first time.  They voted for Bush at a very high clip in 2004, that was all but wiped out by Obama.  If Biden is successful, especially with immigration reform, Dems could easily win back some hispanic support they lost.

We'll see. Dems wokeness is hurting them with hispanics and AAs.

Has it?  Or did Trump benefit from being an incumbent like Dubya did?

you should be more worried about those working class whites who gave Biden the election.

There’s no evidence or logical conclusion that would lead any sane person to think that Republicans won’t crack 40% of the Hispanic vote by 2030 buddy

[Annatar]

Any Republican including Haley would win vs Harris, Lackawanna county flips if harris is the nominee, I would expect massive swings among non-college whites towards Haley if Harris were the nominee, Biden with his working class aura managed to win a lot of these voters, not clear how Harris would.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I have no idea where the impression Harris is a week candidate comes from, she's charismatic and appeals to the base. She has presence and feels presidential, Haley is kinda generic as a political and doesn't have anything resembling the Trumpian style required to boost turnout among rural.

I'll give the edge to Harris here as Haley will depress a lot of republican voters from turning out and not really win back any votes given her ties to the trump adminstration.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Any Republican including Haley would win vs Harris, Lackawanna county flips if harris is the nominee, I would expect massive swings among non-college whites towards Haley if Harris were the nominee, Biden with his working class aura managed to win a lot of these voters, not clear how Harris would.

You're just assuming that. You don't know that for a fact.

[Annatar]

Any Republican including Haley would win vs Harris, Lackawanna county flips if harris is the nominee, I would expect massive swings among non-college whites towards Haley if Harris were the nominee, Biden with his working class aura managed to win a lot of these voters, not clear how Harris would.

You're just assuming that. You don't know that for a fact.

In the primaries, general election polling found Biden doing the best with these types of voters out of all the democratic candidates.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Any Republican including Haley would win vs Harris, Lackawanna county flips if harris is the nominee, I would expect massive swings among non-college whites towards Haley if Harris were the nominee, Biden with his working class aura managed to win a lot of these voters, not clear how Harris would.

You're just assuming that. You don't know that for a fact.

In the primaries, general election polling found Biden doing the best with these types of voters out of all the democratic candidates.

Um, OK. You don't know what will happen in 2024. You just assumed that Haley would do better than Harris among white working class voters. You don't know that.

Also, Nikki Haley isn't going to win the 2024 GOP primary anyways.

[Annatar]

One reason I think Haley or any Republican would beat Harris is in many of the key swing states, Republicans continue to register more voters than democrats, and this seems to indicate a deeper shift towards the GOP, in many states more voters identified as Republican this year compared to 2016.

Republicans have continued to gain on democrats in voter registration in PA, in counties like Erie, Lackawanna and Luzerne, the democratic lead in voter registration is down to 684k statewide as of November 30th compared to 701k going into election day in PA, I think this is evidence non-college whites continue to shift Republican and the PA electorate is structurally becoming more Republican, was 39R/42D in 2016, was 41R/40D in 2020, so went from D+3 to R+1 electorate, this process will continue through to 2024.