2020: Obama runs for a 4th term

[Sir Mohamed]

In a world without the 22nd Amendment and Obama gets elected a 3rd term in 2016, what happens if he runs again 2020? Thread is inspried by a recent 2004 scenario that has Bill Clinton running for a 4th term.

2016 election:

✓ President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE): 322 EVs.; 51.5%
Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN): 216 EVs.; 46.0%

[NewYorkExpress]

In this scenario, Obama's chances depend on who the Republicans nominate to face him.

He probably wants someone younger as VP, so he drops Biden from the ticket.

POTUS Barack Obama/Governor Gavin Newsom 52% 334 EV
Representative Paul Ryan/Senator Marco Rubio 46% 204 EV

[😥]

Pres. Barack Obama (D-IL)/VP Joe Biden (D-DE) 351 EVs; 51.5% PV
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)/Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) 187 EVs; 46.4% PV
187

[bagelman]

"You either die a hero or live long enough to become the villain" - Garfield the Cat

(this assumes no huge pure anti-incumbent swing, making it a very optimistic map for Obama)

[President Johnson]

51.3% || 46.7%

[Alben Barkley]

"You either die a hero or live long enough to become the villain" - Garfield the Cat

(this assumes no huge pure anti-incumbent swing, making it a very optimistic map for Obama)

Dumb.

[bagelman]

"You either die a hero or live long enough to become the villain" - Garfield the Cat

(this assumes no huge pure anti-incumbent swing, making it a very optimistic map for Obama)

Dumb.

no u

You seriously think Obama could just stay in office for 4 terms?! He's a popular President but he is not FDR and he is not God.

I also distinctly do not recall his approval ratings being higher than, say, 70%.

[TwinGeeks99]

By 2020, party fatigue kicks in and Americans are itching for a change. The GOP take their 2012 autopsy to heart and nominate Marco Rubio. He helps the party recover in the suburbs and with Latino voters with a more moderate and softer image, and builds on the gains Trump did with white working class voters.

[Chips]

Republican nominee: 338 electoral votes
President Obama: 200 electoral votes

[ultraviolet]

Honestly, his strength in the rust belt is probably enough for him to hold on even as he sees diminishing returns electorally:

[Agonized-Statism]

President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) / Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) ✓

After a 2016 victory against Trump- won with the Blue Wall thanks to a more in-touch campaign with a progressive running mate from the region- a tough third term and the Trump TV™-fueled anti-mask movement propels a more well-spoken right-wing populist to victory. Polarization prevents a wipeout.

Inb4 angry hacks

[ultraviolet]

President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) / Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) ✓

After a 2016 victory against Trump- won with the Blue Wall thanks to a more in-touch campaign with a progressive running mate from the region- a tough third term and the Trump TV™-fueled anti-mask movement propels a more well-spoken right-wing populist to victory. Polarization prevents a wipeout.

Inb4 angry hacks

Why did he lose ME but win NH

[Agonized-Statism]

Why did he lose ME but win NH

Strong turnout in ME-02 and reduced turnout in ME-01. New Hampshire was decided by a few thousand votes. Obama had very strong appeal in New England in 2008 and 2012 and New Hampshire libertarians weren't receptive to the right-wing populist Hawley campaign.